Not That You Needed Any More Proof....

that "voice" often means mobile in fast growing and mature markets. For all the concern about voice prices going to "zero" or "near zero," the equally important observation is that "access" is growing in value. We'll have some work to do on the "montetizing" front, but access, not minutes, remains strategic.

APIs and Business Models

It is true that the mere existence of an app. program interface, by itself, dictate any one business model. But it strongly leans toward a model embracing third party app development. There's no reason an API has to dictate revenue models for partners that use and build APIs. But it leans towards the collaborative. So it appears telco executives are starting to lean in the direction of formal APIs for development of future services and revenues. Or so it would seem, as survey results begin to trickle in from a survey now being conducted by STL.

There seems pretty clear consensus that adding call and privacy features won't help much. Nor do other "real time" services get much support. That's odd, since video is a real time service, but the results probably don't focus on video as among the real time services respondents are thinking about.

This perception might also be wrong. There should be lots of ways to use APIs and third party development to create calling, privacy and other real time features that would not ordinarily be developed internally. If short message service or ring tones are any indication, telco executives aren't good at predicting what users want and will pay for in any case. So there isn't a terribly compelling reason to think they are right about the paltry returns from using APIs to speed up innovation in the classic calling business.

Trouble Ahead for Mobile Data ARPU?

"There are no more killer apps," warns The Yankee Group analyst Charles Moon, of mobile operators in the Asia and Pacific region. Short-messaging service (SMS), ringtones and—to a lesser extent—graphics and gaming have made huge contributions to mobile data revenue, he says.

"Yet since their introduction many years ago, nothing else has made a similar impact, despite ten- to twenty-fold improvements in wireless download speeds," says Moon. "All things being equal, data revenue will fail to offset the decline in voice," says Moon. "Our current forecast, based on present business models and current operator strategies, shows overall mobile data revenue growing at a relatively tepid 7% per year from 2006 to 2010."

Moon says mobile operators must embrace all-IP platforms such as mobile WiMAX. Walled garden strategies should be disgarded in favor of more openness to third party developers. Speed isn't the issue. Variety is, he maintains. And operators need to learn how to segment customers better.

Biggest Community on the Planet

So think about it: at&t says all members of its community, wireline or wireless, can call each other "on network," for free. Wireless users apparently must also reside within the wireline service territory, and also have a wireline account with at&t, but the implications still are huge.

We will leave for the moment the issue of whether this actually will work. If it works, at&t creates the world's biggest "friends and family" network. If Verizon and Qwest somehow wind up peered with at&t, most "callers" within the United States will be part of a single, peered network with free calling on the entire network.

Which changes he competitive landscape prety dramatically, don't you think? Whatever version of Metcalfe's Law you subscribe to (the value of the network increases as the square of the number of nodes, the value of the network increases less than that, or more than that), this is a huge deal.

Consider that a global, tier one carrier calls its customer base a "community." Consider that the deal essentially eliminates the distinction between TDM and IP calling. Consider that the deal could put a huge damper on POTS line defections in territory, and somewhat complicates the "lower price" positioning of most VoIP offerings. at&t just has made the value of an in-region POTS line much more valuable.

A Significant Move, Architecturally Speaking

Comcast says it is testing switched digital video. Cablevision already added SDV capability and Time Warner has been saying it would likely be necessary. All of this is important because the historic argument made by the cable industry is that its hybrid fiber coax, hybrid analog and digital delivery network was the right way to approach access networks. The argument has been that telco fiber to the home networks were a needlessly expensive way to provide broadband services, and a particularly expensive way to deliver digital video. The latest move by Cablevision and the testing by Comcast and Time Warner suggest that the telcos might have been right all along.

That's a huge shift in thinking, and should cause at least some skeptics to rethink their positions. To wit, as cable moves to SDV over an HFC network, it becomes essentially the same network at&t says it is building. And there are two ways to look at matters. One can argue that at&t's approach is good enough to compete with cable. One can argue that telco-style SDV was the right approach all along, and cable has had to acknowledge that fact. Or one can argue that a full-bore FTTH network is a better choice, where it can be done, because it is a way to leapfrog the bandwidth limitations of any HFC network, either of the cable or at&t varieties.

Or, put it this way: is an optical Ethernet network, all the way to the customer premises, the best wireline platform for launching all sorts of new IP services, including, but not limited to video. And if that is the case, is there not strategic value for the network operator that builds such a network? And if that is the case, maybe some people should cut Verizon a bit of slack....

Cbeyond, Geek Squad

In many ways, Cbeyond sells VoIP like cable companies sell digital voice. The focus is on drop dead simplicity and maximum ease of use, with all the messy technological details hidden. There's a deliberate effort to avoid introducing new technology into a customer's world in a visible way. Think "it just works." There are other businesses out there with similar approaches. Among the most customer-friendly technology support efforts one sees out there in the consumer world is the Geek Squad. Like the office superstores of the world, it just is something small businesses will turn to for predictable, approachable service. So don't be surprised when Geek Squad starts selling Cbeyond services.

SunRocket Launches Asia Pacific Plan

SunRocket now offers a calling plan that drops rates to Asia Pacific locations including China, Japan, Hong Kong and Vietnam to as little as one cent per minute. The annual $199 Asia Pacific Edition features per-minute calling rates well below traditional phone service offerings and as much as 90 percent less than other major VoIP providers, SunRocket says.

The Asia Pacific Edition reduces international rates to $.01 per minute on all calls (landline and cell) to China, Singapore and Hong Kong; and on landline calls to Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea. Landline rates fall to $.02 per minute for Japan; while SunRocket's rate on all calls to Vietnam is cut nearly in half to $.10 per minute.