U.K. Already Heading for "Double Dip" Recession, Will U.S. Follow?

Some people continue to insist the U.S. economy is not headed into another recession, creating a "double dip" recession. Others say a new recession is coming.

We can't say yet, but there's bad news from the United Kingdom, where the "Retail Health Index" already shows business activity dropping, which if replicated for the entire U.K. economy, would trigger a formal recession condition. UK Retail is now firmly back in recession says Retail Think Tank 

So far, the U.S. economy has not actually fallen for one full quarter, let along two, but it is growing at a historically weak level, compared to past recessions. And some already think the U.S. economy is headed for a double dip.

"Amid all the absurd posturing over raising the debt ceiling comes some real news—and it’s very bad," says the New Yorker. "According to new government figures, the economy has hardly grown at all in 2011."

"The recovery that began in early 2009 is now officially stalled," the New Yorker says. "Some economists will quibble, but I think it is fair to say that the dreaded double-dip recession is at hand," argues John Cassidy.

When healthy, the American economy grows at an annual rate of close to three per cent. The Commerce Department’s latest report on the gross domestic product shows that between April and June 2011, it expanded at an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, and between January and March it grew at an annual rate of just 0.4 per cent.

The first-quarter figure is particularly stunning. Previously, the Commerce Department had estimated growth in the period at 1.9 per cent. Some think there will be a similar downward revision to the second-quarter figures.
Read more here.

it may turn out that we’re already in one, according to a pair of economists at Moody's Capital Markets Research Group. Read more here.

U.K. retail executives expect the trend to continue in the third quarter. The most recent quarterly reports from a number of European telecom providers also could suggest economic softening.

U.S. Steps Up Probe of Nortel Patent Deal

Apparently the U.S. Justice Department thinks there might be anti-competitive implications in the recent sale of Nortel patents to a consortium of firms including Apple, Microsoft and Research in Motion, the Wall Street Journal reports.

A consortium of six companies last month paid $4.5 billion to acquire a portfolio of 6,000 patents auctioned by the bankrupt Canadian telecom equipment maker Nortel Networks Corp. Google had made an initial bid of $900 million.

The Wall Street Journal says some observers were "stunned" at the sales price, which has raised Justice Department concern about what return the bidders expect on the investment.

U.S. Steps Up Probe of Nortel Patent Deal - WSJ.com (subscription required)

Recently, some Android handset manufacturers reportedly have agreed to pay Microsoft $5 per device in licensing fees, perhaps raising speculation that Google's rivals think they can impose more costs on Android handset manufacturers. http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2011/07/patent-issues-for-android-growing.html.

The Nortel patents cover an extensive array of mobile-related functions, especially related to fourth-generation mobile networks and devices, apparently. http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2011/05/nortel-nears-libuidation.html

Wired Looks at Who Wins Social Media Wars

How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?

In 2016, ABI Research forecasts that there will be 103 million 4G wholesale subscribers, served by mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) that buy capacity and services from a facilities-based provider and then retail services under their own brand names.

ABI Research estimates there were about 3.8 million 4G wholesale subscribers in 2010.

Other forecasts suggest lower adoption. Separately, Ovum forecasts that global MVNO connections will reach 85.6 million by 2015, and revenues are expected to be $9.5 billion. In other words, ABI Research believes there will be more 4G MVNO customers than Ovum believes will exist in the entire MVNO market, including the much-larger 3G market.

Over the next five years, new MVNO markets are expected to open up in South and Central America, Asia-Pacific, and in the Middle East. However, there are still regulatory and market challenges to overcome before these markets can offer an environment that can sustain MVNO activity.

Therefore, Ovum expects the bulk of MVNO connections and revenue growth from 2010 to 2015 will come from established MVNO markets in Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America.

How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?

Why You Should Switch to GMail

Application Usage Rules of Thumb

"One fairly common 'law of web and mobile physics' is the ratio of registered users or downloads to monthly actives, daily actives, and max concurrent users (for services that have a real time component to them), says venture capitalist Fred Wilson. "I call this ratio 30/10/10 and so many services that we see exhibit it within a few percentage points here and there."

What Wilson sees is that, for most providers, 30 percent of the registered users or number of downloads (if its a mobile app) will use the service each month. About 10 percent of the registered users or number of downloads (if its a mobile app) will use the service each day.

The maximum number of concurrent users of a real-time service will be 10 percent of the number of daily users.

A VC: 30/10/10

Mobile Has To Re-Think The "Ad"

Necessity is the mother of invention, and that is likely to be true for mobile advertising as well. Because of constraints on-screen size, display ads will not be the preferred or logical format, many would argue. That might explain why there is so much activity around e-commerce, coupons, promotional messages and other "non-traditional" marketing and advertising formats being tried in the mobile business.

Mobile Has The Opportunity To Re-Think The Ad