How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?

In 2016, ABI Research forecasts that there will be 103 million 4G wholesale subscribers, served by mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) that buy capacity and services from a facilities-based provider and then retail services under their own brand names.

ABI Research estimates there were about 3.8 million 4G wholesale subscribers in 2010.

Other forecasts suggest lower adoption. Separately, Ovum forecasts that global MVNO connections will reach 85.6 million by 2015, and revenues are expected to be $9.5 billion. In other words, ABI Research believes there will be more 4G MVNO customers than Ovum believes will exist in the entire MVNO market, including the much-larger 3G market.

Over the next five years, new MVNO markets are expected to open up in South and Central America, Asia-Pacific, and in the Middle East. However, there are still regulatory and market challenges to overcome before these markets can offer an environment that can sustain MVNO activity.

Therefore, Ovum expects the bulk of MVNO connections and revenue growth from 2010 to 2015 will come from established MVNO markets in Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America.

How Big a Deal will 4G Wholesale Be?