Not Every "On Demand" Video Entertainment Format Works

TV viewing is fragmented, including growing use of non-traditional displays including tablets,

smartphones and PCs. 

But revenue magnitudes are not so fragmented. The video subscription business represents something on the order of $90 billion annually. Netflix will earn something more than $4 billion in 2014, by way of comparison.

But there are some video products that never have gotten much traction, video on demand being one of them. According to an analysis by Parks Associates, about 74 percent of video subscription customers never purchase anything from the VOD catalog. So perhaps 26 percent of subscription TV customers buy VOD content.

At those purchase rates, VOD is less popular than traditional “premium” channels such as HBO, which tends to be purchased by about 30 percent of homes buying a traditional video subscription.

By way of comparison, use of online streaming services is quite widespread, likely being used by 35 percent of video subscription customers. By the end of 2014, some predict Netflix along might reach subscriber adoption at 39 million U.S. households. That would put Netflix adoption at more than 40 percent of U.S. video subscription homes, in all likelihood.

video subscription business represents something on the order of $90 billion annually. Netflix will earn something more than $4 billion in 2014, by way of comparison. The traditional video on demand business might represent $1.5 billion, after decades of availability.

Soon, Even People Without Your Email Address Will be Able to Email Some of You!

All communication technologies can be useful or annoying; it just comes with the territory. Consider the integration of Google+ Gmail.

As part of an upgrade to Gmail, allowing contact information to be automatically updated using Google+, Gmail soon will suggest your Google+ connections as recipients when you are composing a new email.

That might be useful when you actually have forgotten to get the email address of someone who want to communicate with, and email is the context you already are using. The “problem” might be that Google+ contacts also can send you email without knowing your email address.

Whether that is a good thing or not will depend on the context as well. As somebody who gets thousands of emails every day, I probably do not relish the thought of more messages. But that is not how many users will view the new feature.

It might be helpful to have one more shortcut for sending a message, especially when you are not responding to an inbound message.

Apparently, your email address isn't visible to a Google+ connection unless you send that person an email, and likewise, that person’s email address isn’t visible to you unless they send you an email.

Also, emailing Google+ connections also takes advantage of Gmail's new inbox categories.

When someone in your circles emails you, the email will appear in the “Primary” category. But if you don't have them in your circles, it will be filtered into the “Social category” (if enabled) and they'll only be able start another conversation with you if you respond or add them to your circles.

Of course, you also have some options to enable the feature or restrict it entirely.

Video Subscription Market Appears to Grow, Despite Smaller Customer Base

Most of the money being made in video entertainment continues to be made by providers of traditional forms of media, despite the growth of over the top and online alternatives.

That remains true even as users of traditional products slowly shift away towards new formats.

Most surveys likely would show that younger consumers buy video subscription services at lower rates than older consumers.

Though the actual amount of revenue lost to cord cutters (people who drop existing subscriptions), cord thinners (people downgrading levels of service) or cord cheaters (people supplementing a video subscription with an over the top service) remains rather negligible, the arguably bigger problem is cord avoiders.

Cord avoiders are people who never have bought a video subscription and do not see any reason to do so, as those sorts of non-customers are concentrated among younger consumers starting their own households.

The reason is that some incremental revenue pressure from what still remains a one percent a year attrition is less important, long term, than a change in consumer demand for the product.

In the near term, service providers likely can find ways to maintain higher revenues on slightly smaller customer bases.

By 2017, Infonetics Research expects the global subscription TV market to grow to $270 billion, at a 2012 to 2017 compound annual growth rate of about five percent. U.S. traditional video subscription revenue might grow at a slower two percent annual rate from 2013 to 2017.

Alternative forms of video consumption will grow faster, but the revenue magnitudes will be quite different. video subscription business represents something on the order of $90 billion annually. Netflix will earn something more than $4 billion in 2014, by way of comparison.

O2 is Getting Out of Branded Mobile Wallet Business

O2 Wallet was among the earliest branded mobile wallet offers available to consumers in Western Europe. But O2 now has decided to shutter O2 Wallet, citing unspecified changes in the market.

Given delays in growth of the near field communications market, namely a critical mass of handsets and terminals, plus retailer support, the O2 Wallet was designed to work without requiring use of NFC. 

But a viable wallet effort requires scale, something most other competing ventures also are struggling to create. Starbucks, using its captive customer base, had immediate scale. 

And Square, which has focused instead on mobile retailer terminal services allowing smaller merchants to take credit card and debit card payments using a smartphone, or tablet, have thrived because the infrastructure is largely in place.

All a retailer must do is supply a compliant smartphone or tablet device, and have Internet access, to use Square. That sidesteps the scale problem. 

The scale is provided by consumers who are used to using credit cards and debit cards to pay for purchases in retail environments; by merchants who already have incentives to take such payments; and by low-cost terminals people know how to use. 

O2 simply has run into the scale issue, head on. 

Seattle's Gigabit Squared Fails: Sustainability Remains an Issue for Muni Access Networks

Seattle's Gigabit Squared network appears to have failed, illustrating a recurring problem with all municipal or joint venture Internet access efforts, namely creation of sustainable revenue models. 

Gigabit Squared had hoped to use municipal dark fiber as the backbone for a gigabit access network in parts of Seattle. But the effort seems to have foundered for financial reasons, even before any construction began.

How Big a Revenue Stream Will Connected Cars Generate for Mobile Service Providers?

There’s an obvious reason why the “Internet of Things” and “machine-to-machine” services get so much attention from mobile service providers: once the industry has sold at least one mobile phone connection to just about every person, “line growth” has to shift to other “connectable devices,” especially those performing best with a full-time, dedicated connection.

Tablets, personal hotspots and game players are among the logical candidates for additional connections after the phone.

But vehicles are interesting for any number of reasons. For starters, vehicles always have been important media consumption platforms (radio, satellite radio). But with navigation and vehicle diagnostics assuming higher profiles, there are additional reasons for people to want Internet communications and content in their vehicles: cars are an excellent platform for mobile Internet and apps.

By some estimates, by about 2018 there could be 60 million connected cars globally using connected car services. In a mobile communications business with billions of users, that might not sound like much.

But those connected vehicles might create a new business collectively representing perhaps $51 billion in annual revenue.

Research firm SBD estimates the overall connected car market will be three times larger in 2018 than it was in 2012.

About 61 percent of projected 2018 global revenue will be generated from in-vehicle services, such as traffic information, call center support and web-based entertainment. In other words, apps and services will generate the majority of global revenue.

Hardware will generate about 17 percent of global revenue. Some 11 percent will be earned by providers of telematics services, such as customer relationship management, SBD predicts.

Connectivity will represent about 10 percent of total global connected car revenue of $40 billion to $50 billion.

Vehicle Internet connections alone then might be $4 billion to $5 billion by 2018. And the unknowable question is how much other revenue mobile service providers might be able to generate if they participate as equity owners in the apps and services that actually will generate most of the revenue.

The other angle is that in some instances, the mobile handset will be docked to the vehicle, becoming the access and application processor. That means there is potential indirect revenue to be earned, as well as account stickiness features, if the user finds the mobile handset also powers in-vehicle apps and communications, even when an additional “line” is not sold.

Such tethering is in many ways the faster way to gain market share (either for the vehicle manufacturer or access provider), since many of the details of negotiating operating agreements and adding new vehicle electronics are minimized.

Embedding offers integration advantages, but costs more, and will take time.

Mobile Penetration No Less than 72%, Anywhere

Lots of stats in this presentation, including social, mobile and Internet access adoption rates across the globe. What might shock you is the high adoption of mobile service, everywhere. The lowest adoption rate is 72 percent, anywhere. 

Social, Digital & Mobile Around The World (January 2014) from We Are Social Singapore

Sprint Redefines "Family" Plan with New "Framily" Plans

Sprint’s new “Framily Plan” takes the notion of a shared family plan one step further and allows accounts to include as many as 10 devices in a shared plan, including any users the account holder wishes to specify.

The plan appears aimed at the 60 percent of U.S. households made up of fewer than three people. The Sprint Framily plan allows creation of “family plans” with virtually any self-defined group of users who agree to be on a single account, though bills can be issued separately to any member of a group.

Sprint's Framily Plan is available to new and existing customers.

For one line of service, new Sprint customers pay $55 per month per line for unlimited talk, text and 1GB of data. For each additional new Sprint customer that joins the Framily group, the cost per person goes down $5 a month up to a maximum monthly discount of $30 per line.

Build a group of at least seven people and everyone gets unlimited talk, text and 1GB of data for $25 per month per line (pricing excludes taxes and surcharges).

For $20 per month per line, Framily members can buy up to unlimited data plus get a new phone every year.

Each account can be billed separately.

To participate, customers purchase an eligible wireless phone at full retail price or through the Sprint “Easy Pay” program and pay in 24 monthly payments. Customers also can activate an existing Sprint phone.

New customers will be given a unique Framily ID, at which point they can invite friends and family outside of Sprint to join their group. Or, new customers can easily join an existing Sprint Framily group within 14 days of account activation.

Existing Sprint accounts, though,  cannot be combined into one Framily plan unless both accounts are owned by the same person.

The price of the Framily Plan for customers currently on a plan with a discounted phone is an additional $15 per month per line for service until the customer’s line is upgrade eligible. For a limited time, Sprint will waive the $15 per month to move to the Sprint Framily Plan for customers who purchased a discounted phone before Jan. 10, 2014, and are not upgrade eligible.

A single-line subscriber who is part of a seven-line Framily Group will pay $25 per month for unlimited talk, text and 1GB of data, a significant monthly savings versus what they would pay for a new line of service at competitors.

Sprint argues a seven-member Framily, at $25 per user, beats a T-Mobile Simple Choice (500MB of data) at $50 a month; an AT&T Mobile Share Value plan with 1 GB of data at $70 a month or a Verizon Share Everything account with 1GB of data at $90.

Those comparisons, one might argue, are not truly “apples to apples,” as Sprint compares per-user costs for a seven-member plan with single user plans.

A single-line subscriber at Sprint with no group members, a better comparison,  would have a single user paying $55 per month.

The Framily plan offers users more flexibility and possibly some recurring cost savings, compared to T-Mobile US, AT&T Mobility or Verizon Wireless plans, on a single-user basis. lt’s helpful, though not likely “disruptive.”

Global Device Shipments Up 7.6% in 2014

Global shipments of devices including PCs, tablets and mobile phones are projected to reach 2.5 billion units in 2014, a 7.6 percent increase from 2013, according to Gartner. 

Among operating systems, Android is on pace to surpass one billion users across all devices in 2014. 

By 2017, over 75 percent of Android's volumes will come from emerging markets, according to Gartner.

Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)

Device Type	2012	2013	2014	2015
PC (Desk-Based and Notebook)	341,273	299,342	277,939	268,491
Tablet (Ultramobile)	119,529	179,531	263,450	324,565
Mobile Phone	1,746,177	1,804,334	1,893,425	1,964,788
Other Ultramobiles (Hybrid and Clamshell)	9,344	17,195	39,636	63,835
Total	2,216,322	2,300,402	2,474,451	2,621,678

Source: Gartner (December 2013)

Sony to Launch Streaming TV Service in U.S. in 2014

Viacom had in 2013 predicted at least one firm would launch a new streaming TV service in 2014, featuring the same kind of channels that now are only available to cable and satellite TV subscribers, and now Sony has done so.

Sony says it will start an Internet-based TV service in the United States in 2014, offering a mix of live TV programming and video on demand.

Andrew House, group CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment, says the service will have personalized channels reflecting the viewer's tastes.

Based on the number of homes with Internet-connected Sony devices, he says the service would be among the top five providers of TV programming in the country.

Verizon and AT&T Have Captured Most of the U.S. Mobile Industry's Growth Since 2008

A new report on the U.S. mobile industry provides confirmation of the pervasiveness of the mobile business. U.S. mobile penetration at the end of 2012 was 102 percent and almost 40 percent of U.S. households are mobile only, IGI Group says. 

The report also shows how U.S. market structure has changed since about 2008. Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility still are number one and number two in terms of subscribers, and have captured most of the market's growth.

Europe has Lowest LTE Retail Prices: Good for Consumers, Not Service Providers

Average Long Term Evolution 4G mobile service  pricing in the European Union  is $34.89 per month (average monthly data allowance of almost 20GB) and is the lowest of the six regions surveyed by Tariff Consultancy.

For consumers, that is the good news. For service providers, that is the bad news. In fact, LTE service providers in France offer LTE services without any pricing premium over 3G data plans.

And though observers and practitioners alike might have hoped that LTE could be uniformly introduced as a “premium” offer, that has not universally been the case.

In the United Kingdom, LTE prices are certain to come under pressure once 3 launches its LTE network, as 3 has said it will not charge a premium for LTE data access.

The pricing pressure should not be a surprise, as many surveys had suggested 4G service pricing would be an issue.

In most European markets, however, new adopters of smartphone service expected to pay less, about 28 percent to 31 percent less--than the amount existing subscribers said they were willing to pay.

And that rate typically was less than the current average market price for 3G service, researchers at McKinsey had found.

Should that trend spread, mobile service providers will find they have to work harder to reduce costs, since LTE might impose capital spending burdens with little direct revenue upside.

AT&T Introduces "Toll Free" Data Service for Partners

AT&T has launched a “Sponsored Data” service that content or application partners can use in a way similar to “toll free” phone numbers,

With the new Sponsored Data service, data charges for participating apps and services will be billed directly to the sponsoring company, much as Kindle content downloads have been paid for by Amazon, directly to AT&T.

The Sponsored Data program extends that concept, allowing business partners to encourage usage, as mobile customer data plans are not charged for usage.

The Sponsored Data apps and services will be delivered at the same speed and performance as any other content, on a best effort basis, with no packet prioritization.

AT&T believes the program will be attractive for partners in industry verticals including healthcare, retail, media and entertainment and financial services, to encourage sampling of new apps that otherwise might strain data plan allowances, especially video apps such as movie trailers and games.

If users are able to browse mobile shopping sites without incurring data plan charges, that likewise should encourage usage of the sites offering the feature.

For business customers, the feature might be a way to support essential work-related apps without necessarily subsidizing all other consumption.

Winners and Losers in Content

Any specific regulation or law normally produces winners and losers. Consider the impact of copyright law. You might instinctively assume that when copyright produces more revenue, the result is more content production.

Some might argue the relationship between revenue and creative output is not so simple. In other words, less copyright protection arguably can lead to more content production by at least some producers.

Broader copyright may thus entail a trade-off between two marginal effects: More original works from new authors along one margin, but fewer original works from the most popular existing authors along a second, argues Glynn S. Lunney, Jr. of the Tulane University School of Law.

If the second effect outweighs the first, then more revenue (produced by greater copyright protection) may lead to fewer original works. Conversely, less revenue (produced by less copyright protection) may lead to more original works, albeit by newer artists.

“While this may seem radically counterintuitive, it also happens to be true,” Lunney argues.  

Lunney studied the relationship between copyright protection, revenue, and creative output, by looking at file sharing and the parallel fall in music industry revenue.

Looking at songs in the top fifty of the Billboard Hot 100 from 1985 through 2013, Lunney found that the sharp decline in music industry revenue that paralleled the rise of file sharing was associated with fewer new artists entering the market, but also more hit songs, on average, by those new artists who did enter.

Moreover, because the second marginal effect was larger than the first, the decline in revenue since file sharing began was associated with a net increase in the number of new hit songs.

“Thus, for the music industry, the rise of file sharing and the parallel decline in revenue has meant the creation of more new music,” says Lunney.

Those findings will provide little comfort in some quarters. As with many other phenomena related to the Internet ecosystem, more usage does not translate directly into “more revenue” for some participants, even if it means more revenue is earned by other participants.

In other words, there are some winners and some losers.