Be careful when anybody declares this or next year the "year of X." Such predictions inevitably are wrong. That doesn't mean the direction of a trend is wrong, just the timing.
So when Google CEO Eric Schmidt says the recreation of the PC and Internet stories are before us, he's right about the direction. When he says it is "very likely it will happen in the next year," he's most likely wrong about the timing.
The mobile Web will be a "huge revolution", as Schmidt argues. But it isn't going to reach the tipping point next year. Proclamations of the "year of the anything" are universally incorrect.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
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