Broadband Mapping: Studying Non-Problems

About $350 million of the version of the broadband stimulus package passed by the Senate will go toward mapping broadband coverage. Some will argue that it doesn't matter what "stimulus" spending goes toward, as long as the money goes to work immediately, is targeted and terminates once the recession is over, and there is sound logic there.

The issue, though, is whether there is a terrible problem requiring that we "study" this matter some more. If one looks at where the United States ranks in telephone penetration, for example, the United States ranks about 16th, as measured by the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation.

One can quarrel with the methodology OCED uses, but for the moment consider simply the well-developed state of landline voice service. Does anybody really think the United States has a problem with wired voice penetration?

And if not, why is a "15th in the world" ranking for broadband access a problem?

A "back-of-the-envelope" forecast by economists at the Phoenix Center suggests that U.S. broadband subscription rates (keep in mind that we are talking about demand for the service, not its availability) will be about 75 percent of the telephone rate in 4.4 years, and broadband will equal the telephone subscription rate in 9.6 years.

There is a difference between "lack of supply" and "lack of demand." The OECD statistics for broadband penetration are a "demand" metric, not a "supply" metric. And yet even on that score the United States demand for broadband already is equivalent to wired voice.

Some things do need to be studied because there are problems of supply. But supply isn't really the issue for broadband. The problem is demand.

In fact, as wired voice demand continues to decline, at least in the consumer market, why would we not see calls for studies of why wired voice penetration is so "low"? The reason we don't hear such calls is because demand is shifting. There is no problem with "supply."

Mapping broadband might be a useful exercise for some. But mapping doesn't change the demand equation, which is the only problem broadband currently faces. One might argue that prices are too high, or speeds too low. But that is a problem only if supply is not being upgraded. And it is hard to argue that is not occurring at a rapid pace. In fact, broadband already has been adopted at rates that surpass nearly all key consumer products of the last 100 years. Only use of the Internet itself is a reasonable candidate for "fastest-adopted" innovation.

There are lots of problems to be solved. Mapping broadband, to pinpoint supply constraints, doesn't strike me as being one of them.