It is hard to argue with the notion that landline voice service is a clear “legacy” technology that half of consumers--or more--have decided they no longer need to buy.
A Bank of America survey of U.S. consumers found “landline” phone service was used by just 36 percent of those surveyed.
The issue is the trend: how much further can purchases fall? To be sure, many would point out that analog accounts are a declining portion of total fixed network voice lines, while market share also is shifting from traditional suppliers to competitors.
Some, such as the Telecommunications Industry Association, are optimistic, essentially arguing that voice over Internet Protocol lines will grow enough to ensure that the total number of fixed network voice lines will not decline.
It is not an impossible outcome, but likely rests on a couple key assumptions. If voice lines are bundled with other more-desired services, such as internet access, and the price is low enough, it is possible that demand can be propped up.
That often is the case for triple play bundles, where it is impossible to discern a specific price for any of the constituent products.
At a low enough price, even a product with lower usage can make sense. In other markets, including the United Kingdom, consumer use of voice or all types actually is dropping, so the “value” of voice is a problem not only for fixed network providers, but also mobile service providers.
Some telcos offer discounts on internet access service if a voice line is purchased with that service. That often is the case in markets where retailers use wholesale access, for example, and the wholesaler requires that retailers buy voice service as a prerequisite for access to rights to buy broadband services.
That seems not to square with other data, though, even if some forecasts of decline might have been too aggressive. A recent survey by Convergys found that only 36 percent of respondents buy fixed network voice service.
Recent studies by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control have found households buying fixed network voice service represent about half of U.S. homes in 2014. By 2017, the percentage of mobile-only households had climbed to 51 percent, while homes buying fixed network voice represented about 46 percent of locations.
The government’s survey found that more than 70 percent of adults between 25 and 34 were mobile only, suggesting that in some demographics, fewer than 30 percent of households buy a fixed network telephone service.
In the developing world, most people already are mobile-only.
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