Early 5G is More Supplier Push Than End User Pull

We sometimes forget that multiple drivers can exist whenver a mobile operator deploys a next-generation network, and consumer "need" or "demand" is only one of those drivers. One value of 4G was that it lowered the cost per bit of mobile data. The same will be true of 5G.

One advantage of 4G small cells is the ability to supply more capacity at usage hotspots. 5G small cells are going to do the same. Again, the advantage only indirectly accrues to end users. The direct advantage is gained by the service provider.

Nor is it clear that 5G ultra-low latency actually directly leads to improved end user experience. Without additional investments in edge computing, app providers cannot actually change end-to-end experience, so end users can experience the changes.

Much early 5G adoption will be supplier push, not end user pull, in other words.

International Data Corporation projects the number of 5G connections to grow from roughly 10.0 million in 2019 to 1.01 billion in 2023, a compound annual growth rate of 217.2 percent over the 2019 to 2023 forecast period. By 2023, IDC expects 5G will represent 8.9 percent of all mobile device connections.

At this point, with the exception of 5G fixed wireless, which provides perhaps the clearest example of demand-pull, much of the 5G adoption will likely be demand-push. In the former case, customers drive adoption because they see some value in doing so. In the latter case, service providers convince consumers to buy 5G because it is in the service provider’s best interest to do so, irrespective of existing consumer demand. 

In large part, that is because many of the “5G” end user benefits actually hinge on simultaneous availability of other capabilities as well, ranging from edge computing to network slicing to artificial intelligence to internet of things use cases. 

It is one thing to tout the near-zero latency of the 5G access network. But that is not the same thing as end-to-end application latency. How much advantage 5G network speeds will provide also is somewhat conditional. 

On low-band networks there will be some improvement over 4G performance, but nothing like the order of magnitude gains from use of millimeter wave spectrum. But even any improvement in speeds must be evaluated against actual end user experience changes. In many, if not most cases, the additional speed, itself, will not lead to markedly-improved experience, except for big file downloads or some virtual reality or augmented reality use cases. 

IDG analysts sort of hint at this. Of the forces driving 5G adoption over the next several years, 5G will be adopted because “shifting data-intensive users and use cases to 5G will allow network operators to more efficiently manage network resources, improving performance and reliability as a result,” IDG says. 

The argument is not that users benefit, but that service providers benefit. 

Internet of things provides another example. “The need to support millions of connected endpoints at the same time will become increasingly critical,” IDG says. :5G's densification advantage be key for mobile network operators in providing reliable network performance.”

Again, mobile network operators gain, not end users directly. 

Low latency and higher speed likewise are said to potentially benefit enterprises. “Many of these use cases will come from businesses looking to leverage 5G's technological advantages in their edge computing, artificial intelligence, and cloud services initiatives,” IDG says.