Mobile operator revenue from voice services will fall from $380 billion in 2019 to $210 billion in 2024, at least in part because of increasing usage of over-the-top apps, including WhatsApp and Viber, says Juniper Research.
Precisely what can be done about that remains a big question.
Juniper Research recommends that operators sign partnerships with hosted services providers, notably through Communications-Platform-as-a-Service. Some might simply call CPaaS “wholesale” access, allowing third party customers or partners access to mobile subscribers for voice and messaging services.
That advice, commonly offered, seems questionable as a way of arresting the decline of mobile voice revenues. Telcos--both fixed and mobile--have been encouraged by some to partner with third party VoIP suppliers since the early days of IP telephony.
The problem is that partnering with OTT voice and messaging providers is problematic, for a number of reasons. For starters, profit margins are low. Also, there is no reason WhatsApp or other OTT messaging providers “need” to partner with connectivity providers. They can go direct to end users, and do, routinely.
That, in fact, is the meaning of the phrase “over the top.” App providers do not need permission from connectivity providers to deliver their services to end users. Also, consumers continue to abandon fixed line telephony. It is hard to see how allowing third parties to use wholesale telco services can reverse that trend.
Mobile operators might lose $157 billion in voice revenue between 2018 and 2023, Juniper Research forecast in 2018. The latest forecast is that operator revenue from voice services will fall from $380 billion in 2019 to $210 billion in 2024.
It remains to be seen whether wholesale markets will present greater opportunities as smart speakers become ubiquitous, and if some suppliers seek to add public network calling to their devices and services.
Still, it seems a stretch to think that demand for this type of support (calling to public network customers using smart speakers) will generate significant profit for telcos, even if some amount of gross revenue might be earned by supporting third party customers who want to support public network calling that originates and terminates on smart speakers.
So far, it seems unclear whether public network calling using smart speakers will become a feature smart speaker suppliers will wish to add.
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