When the global telecom industry faces the prospect of losing half its total $1.5 trillion revenue over a decade, that shortfall alone is $750 billion. That illustrates the magnitude of the “find new revenues” challenge. Simply to replace lost current revenues, service providers must create more than $750 billion--without inflation adjustment--simply to keep revenues where they are at present.
The point is that a few billion in revenue here and there will not move the needle. The telecom industry would require a hundred to a few hundred new revenue sources of that size to fill a hole of $750 billion.
To the extent it matters, the single biggest “revenue” boost mobile service providers will get from 5G will come from consumer subscriptions. In terms of gross revenue, no new revenue stream enabled by 5G is likely to surpass the annual recurring revenue from two billion mobile phone subscriptions.
Mobile-enabled sports content is seen as a growth area, with Omdia estimating that device sales plus recurring revenues from sports events could reach $11 billion globally by 2024. The issue is that much of that revenue will be device sales, not recurring or pay-per-view revenues.
Live sports might generate $2.6 billion by 2024, part of $4.9 billion in over the top media revenues earned by mobile service providers in 2024. In other words more than half of total mobile OTT revenues will be earned by device suppliers in 2024.
Net margins might be an issue, as there is a content cost of goods issue: gross revenue is shared with content owners. Historically, content rights consumed as much as half of gross revenue.
Consider that Omdia also predicts 5G fixed wireless will generate $7.4 billion in 2024 revenue, likely with substantially higher profit margins, as the content cost of goods is absent.
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