Thursday, December 17, 2020

Internet Access Too Expensive; Too Slow?

One often hears complaints that U.S. broadband is “too expensive” or “too slow,” as one hears that municipal internet access services are needed to do the job internet service providers will not do. It always is worth evaluating such claims.


Is U.S. broadband “too slow.” Maybe not. About 80 percent of U.S. households can buy gigabit per second service if they choose, looking only at coverage by cable TV networks. Yes, households in rural areas often cannot buy service at such speeds, but speeds improve all the time, for a greater number of locations. 


According to comparethemarket.com, the United States ranks fifth among 50 for downspeeds.


Is U.S. internet access too expensive? Maybe not. According to a new analysis by NetCredit, which shows U.S. consumers spending about 0.16 percent of income on internet access, “making it the most affordable broadband in North America,” says NetCredit.  


In Europe, a majority of consumers pay less than one percent of their average wages to get broadband access, NetCredit says. In Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Japan,  10 Mbps service costs between 0.15 percent and 0.28 percent of income. 


Back in 2017, actual U.S. broadband speed was more than 100 Mbps, on average, according to Akamai. Upstream speeds varied by location, but are at or above plan goals in most cities, with performance varying by provider.   


Another study by Deutsche Bank, looking at cities in a number of countries, with a modest 8 Mbps rate, found  prices ranging between $50 to $52 a month. That still places prices for major U.S. cities such as New York, San Francisco and Boston at the top of the price range for cities studied, but do not seem to be adjusted for purchasing power parity, which attempts to adjust prices based on how much a particular unit of currency buys in each country.


source: McKinsey  


This chart from McKinsey compares cost trends for various products purchased by consumers in the 22 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. It shows price changes, indexed to inflation, between 2002 and 2018, covering nearly two most-recent decades. 


Here is a Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis of U.S. prices for about the same time period.  It shows that U.S. mobile communications prices have dropped almost identically with the OECD data for communications services. 


That matters since mobile phones are the clear consumer choice for using voice services


source: BLS 


One can see the same general downward price trend for U.S. internet access, normalizing for higher consumption over time. 

source: Strategy Analytics 


Some will argue that is the wrong way to look at consumer internet access prices. Some will point to non-inflation-adjusted retail prices, or note that posted U.S. retail prices are high by global standards. Without adjusting for different costs of living in different countries, one can conclude U.S. Internet prices are too high. 


Adjusting for local prices, as when comparing the cost of an Internet access subscription to national income statistics, yields a different answer, namely that prices are quite low in developed countries. 


Granted, there always are challenges. Rural areas are harder to serve than urban areas. Poorer countries have a harder time supplying access at low prices than richer countries. 


A normalization technique used by the International Telecommunications Union is to attempt to compare prices to gross national income per person, or to adjust posted retail prices using a purchasing power parity method. 


There are methodological issues. Gross national income is not household income, and per-capita measures might not always be the best way to compare prices, income or other metrics. But at a high level, measuring prices as a percentage of income provides some relative measure of affordability. 


Looking at internet access prices using the PPP method, developed nation prices are around $35 to $40 a month. In absolute terms, developed nation prices are less than $30 a month. 

source: ITU


That is worth keeping in mind.


According to BroadbandNow, less than half of U.S. households have access to fixed network internet access at prices of $60 or less per month. The implication is that this is a problem. 


Maybe it is not generally a problem. The average global price of a fixed network internet access connection is $73 a month. So average U.S. prices are significantly lower than the global average.


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