It often is useful to revisit bandwidth or cost predictions periodically, to test the predictive value of algorithms. Back in 2013, for example, Technology Futures, using several standard industry algorithms, predicted that, by 2020, half of U.S. consumers would be buying 100 Mbps internet access connections.
Those same tools suggested that about 10 percent of consumers would be buying 50 Mbps connections, while nearly 24 percent would be buying 24 Mbps service.
In 2020, according to Openvault, about 62 percent of U.S. consumers were buying internet access at speeds of at least 100 Mbps. 24 percent were purchasing service at speeds of at least 50 Mbps, while 12 percent were buying services running between 20 Mbps and 40 Mbps.
source: Openvault
So actual behavior exceeded the 2023 predictions made by Technology Futures, using the Fisher-Pry model for technology adoption and Gompertz growth forecasting tools.
There is no particular reason to believe gigabit speed adoption will not follow the Fisher-Pry suggested growth path, either. It should develop as an “S curve,” as did all prior generations (1.5 Mbps, 6 Mbps, 24 Mbps, 50 Mbps, 100 Mbps, for example).
Some 154.2 million U.S. residents can buy gigabit internet access service from cable operators, according to Viavi data. If the U.S. population is 328.2 million, that implies 47 percent of people can buy the product.
The NCTA claims 80 percent of U.S. households can buy gigabit service from cable operators, however.
Where it comes to predicting typical U.S. consumer internet access speeds, the industry-standard models might have been too conservative.
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