Beyond IT, virtually all efforts at organizational change arguably also fail. The rule of thumb is that 70 percent of organizational change programs fail, in part or completely.
There is a reason for that experience. Assume you propose some change that requires just two approvals to proceed, with the odds of approval at 50 percent for each step. The odds of getting “yes” decisions in a two-step process are about 25 percent (.5x.5=.25).
In other words, if only two approvals are required to make any change, and the odds of success are 50-50 for each stage, the odds of success are one in four.
Consider new drug approval rates. Consider a four-phase drug approval process, where the real mortality (58 percent to 87 percent failure) is the gate from phase one to phase two. Where there are three development phases and then an “approval” process of four stages, overall success rates range from 14 percent to 21 percent.
American Council on Science and Health
Other examinations of drug approval success rates suggest the odds of success are less than 10 percent for a four-stage set of hurdles, up to perhaps 11 percent.
In the venture capital business, the odds of getting funding are less than one percent.
souce: Corporate Finance Institute
In other words, change is hard because any complex process, with multiple stakeholders--with the ability to stop any proposal--is mathematically challenging.
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