Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Is "Fair Share" Really Necessary?

Ignoring for a moment the arguments about network interconnection principles and existing policies that have internet domains compensating each other for unequal traffic flows, do telcos really “need” so-called “fair share” payments by a few hyperscale app providers?


Nobody likely disputes the challenge of monetizing continual investments in capacity, on either mobile or fixed networks. In competitive markets, payback is a challenge. But even so, the industry’s own data suggests there is not an urgent business model problem. 


Industry sources might argue that profit margins and revenue growth rates are lower for mobile and fixed network telcos than in the average of all other industries.


According to GSMA Intelligence, the average net profit margin for telcos globally was 14.1 percent in 2022, lower than the average net profit margin for all industries, which was 16.9 percent. Likewise, GSMA Intelligence says the average revenue growth rate for telcos globally was 2.2 percent in 2022, lower than the average revenue growth rate for all industries, which was 4.2 percent.


Critics might simply point out that the telecom service provider business always was a slow-growth, utility-like industry. So low growth rates are not new, nor a surprise. Lower profit margins than “average” also are not a surprise. Each industry has a different growth rate. 


And capital-intensive industries, whether generally considered utilities or not, generally have lower profit margins. 


Industry

Revenue Growth Rate (2022)

Capital Intensity

Telecommunications

2.2%

High

Electrical Power

3.4%

Very High

Natural Gas

3.8%

High

Wastewater

2.9%

Medium

Airlines

2.1%

High

Railroads

1.9%

Very High

Shipping

2.5%

Very High


So yes, connectivity service provider revenue growth rates are low.  But so are growth rates for other capital-intensive industries. Generally speaking, industries with less capital intensity also tend to grow faster. 


Industry

Revenue Growth Rate (2022)

Technology

6.5%

Healthcare

5.2%

Financial Services

4.8%

Consumer Discretionary

4.3%

Consumer Staples

3.9%

Industrials

3.6%

Energy

3.4%

Utilities

3.2%

Materials

3.0%

Real Estate

2.8%

Telecommunications

2.2%


Also, with the caveat that growth rates and profit margins can vary substantially between suppliers in different segments of the market, profit margins are not unusually low for service providers in any region. 


Slow revenue growth, as noted previously, has been--and remains--characteristic of telecom services, as is generally true for many other capital-intensive industries. 


Region

Telco Net Profit Margin

Revenue Growth Rate

North America

12.2%

1.8%

Europe

13.5%

1.9%

Asia

15.6%

2.5%

Latin America

12.8%

2.1%

Africa

9.3%

1.7%


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