All GPTs Amplify Some Human Capability

All general-purpose technologies amplify some human capability. At least some GPTs seem to amplify multiple capabilities, which makes it hard to predict how the GPT will have impact. And that is true for artificial intelligence as well, assuming it does develop as a GPT.

Consider the many ways the internet created platforms for new ways of doing things; new industries and firms. 

Some of us might note the flattening of hierarchies; value chains with less friction; speed and liquidity of transactions and communications the internet has enabled. Think of all forms of e-commerce as examples. 

Much of that benefit happened because the internet eased the time and cost to obtain information and share it. Think about search as a prime example. 

Likewise, problem solving is easier, to the extent we can tap large volumes of historical data using new tools for data analysis, visualization or simulation. Though the internet was not solely responsible for those developments, it slashed the cost of doing all that. Think about the benefits of cloud computing and capabilities “as a service.”

So price discovery became more transparent; distribution could be made simpler, faster, cheaper; markets could expand on a wider geographic basis, leading to economies of scale or scope. Think of all forms of resource sharing such as Uber or Airbnb. 

Instant communication and connection with anyone, anywhere in the world has enabled new forms of collaboration across borders and an increase in the speed with which ideas can propagate. Instant multimedia messaging and low-cost visual communications are examples. 

To a great extent, the internet has increased everyone’s ability to create and share content, as well. Social media and online media provide examples. 

We might typically think of the value of AI as leveraging thinking rather than muscle power. But past GPTs have reshaped several capabilities. 

Electricity extended our active hours with artificial light, so created, in a sense, “more time” by essentially enhancing “vision.”

Electricity enabled refrigeration, so we got better food preservation and variety, and so enhanced “taste and smell.”

Electricity enabled new medical equipment, leading to better health and longevity

Eventually, electricity led to advanced cognitive abilities as it enabled computers and communication technologies. 

The internal combustion engine increased mobility and transportation speed, so revolutionized agriculture and manufacturing, essentially multiplying muscle power. That aided the growth of global trade and economic growth,

Steam power provided an earlier instance of enhancing muscle power, leading to mass production and mechanized industrial production, as well as steamboats and railroads. Higher living standards were an outcome. 

The internet has enhanced most senses (sight, hearing); “speech” (the ability to communicate) and a variety of cognitive capabilities (collaboration; information access; memory; art)

Artificial Intelligence is likely to reshape cognitive, physical and creative realms, affecting a wide range of human capabilities. That, in turn, might lead to a rather-vast array of outcomes beyond the obvious “who wins and who loses” angles as they apply to employees, firms and industries. 

As we could not predict the rise of search, social media, sharing economics or information technology with an advertising business model when the internet arose, so we cannot predict what big new business models, industries or firms might arise as AI propagates. 

Investors, entrepreneurs and incumbent firm executives will try, though. “Faster, cheaper, better” might be an easy way to describe AI impact on existing processes and activities. But it is the unexpected and big new developments that people will seek, fear and act upon, even when we aren’t sure what those might be.