Saturday, May 25, 2024

Will AI Inevitably Lead to "More Leisure Time?"

It might seem obvious that artificial intelligence will “inevitably” lead to an increase in work productivity, which might or might not lead to a reduction in “work hours” or leisure time, based principally on AI’s ability to automate routine tasks. 


The historical record is likely clearer on productivity, but perhaps less clear for impact on leisure time, in some cases. Household appliances arguably did reduce the time spent on house cleaning chores, for example. 


It is arguably less clear that personal computers or the internet have had uniformly positive benefits for leisure time. Personal computers, smartphones and the internet  allow people to conduct work from home, “outside of work hours,” for example, so leisure time might be negatively affected. 


Technology

Impact on Leisure Time

Study/Source

Electricity

Increased leisure time through reduced household chores (washing, ironing) 

Studies on the impact of electricity on household labor https://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/electricity.htm)

Washing Machine

Freed up time spent on laundry, potentially leading to more leisure time

Studies on the impact of the washing machine on women's time https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1175&context=mcnair_journal

Personal Computer

Debated impact. Increased efficiency in some tasks, but also created new demands (email, social media)

Studies on the impact of personal computers on work-life balance https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0148296321001570

Internal Combustion Engine (Cars, Trucks)

Increased productivity through faster transportation of goods and people, potentially creating more leisure time for individuals


“The Impact of the Automobile on American Life,” John B. Rae, 1971; “Trucks, Trains and the Engine of Prosperity: Productivity Gains in Freight Transportation, 1880-1950,” Kenneth A. Snowden, 2002; “Internal Combustion Engines and American Economic Growth, 1860-1920,” Peter L. Rousseau, 2002; “The Productivity Effects of Technological Change in Highway Transportation,” Lester Lave, 1966

Assembly Line (Manufacturing)

Drastically increased productivity in factories. Studies suggest a 400 percent increase in Model T production within a few years.

"Fordism: Historical and Theoretical Perspectives" by Jonathan H. Freeland (2002)

Steam power

Increased output significantly, particularly in textiles and iron production. Estimates suggest a 2-3% annual growth rate in manufacturing due to steam power.

"The Productivity Effects of Steam Power in British Manufacturing" by Nicholas Crafts (2004)

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