Users Overestimate Value of IT

User perceptions often do not match underlying realities, whether that is the relative strengths of a sports team or the value of applying generative artificial intelligence. Overconfidence bias is one explanation. 

When surveyed or asked, people tend to overestimate their own abilities and knowledge, which can lead to an inflated perception of the impact of IT on their work. 

Confirmation bias also is at work. Confirmation bias essentially leads us to favor information that confirms our existing beliefs and downplay or ignore information that contradicts them. That obviously always is at work when decisions are made that have financial or strategic implications. Those who made the decisions have a vested interest in positive outcomes. 

The adage “You don’t get fired for recommending IBM” might be extended to any number of other buying decisions made related to IT. Risk aversion makes sense if your job might be imperiled by a bad decision. 

Going with firms with proven track records--rather than new upstarts--often makes perfect sense. The established “name” providers might cost more, or might not provide as much innovation, but the risk of unexpected failures is reduced. Backwards compatibility, domain knowledge, staff familiarity and training costs, conversion costs or ecosystem richness are other possible advantages of sticking with the known. 

The point is that users often overestimate the quantifiable advantages from new IT deployments and approaches, even as independent studies find mixed evidence of such clear improvements, at least within five to 10 years of a major technology deployment. 

Study Title	Authors	Year	Findings
"The Productivity Paradox in Information Technology"	Brynjolfsson, Erik and Lorin M.	1997	Found no clear evidence that IT adoption led to significant increases in overall worker productivity in the US economy.
"The Impact of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems on Firm Performance"	Brynjolfsson, Erik, Lorin M.	2002	Examined the impact of ERP systems on firms and found that while they can improve efficiency in some areas, the overall impact on profitability was mixed.
"From Hype to Reality: Exploring the Real Business Value of CRM Technology"	Reinartz, Werner and	2002	Studied the impact of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems and found that successful implementation required significant organizational changes beyond the technology itself.
"Does Investment in IT Really Pay Off?"	Brynjolfsson, Erik, Lorin M.	2016	Argued that the benefits of IT are often overstated, and that successful implementation requires a focus on complementary organizational changes and investments in worker skills.
"User Beliefs About Technology Usage: The Case of Enterprise Systems"	Dennis, Alan R. and Barbara	2001	Investigated user perceptions of enterprise systems and found a disconnect between user beliefs about the systems' capabilities and their actual effectiveness.

Also, most new IT implementations, especially those with important strategic impact, take time to bear fruit, as often, tangible outcomes require reshaping of whole business processes. So there often is a lag between the time new technologies are implemented and the time when people can cite clear positive outcomes. 

So watch for an avalanche of end user studies claiming benefits from deploying generative AI, for example, that cannot be independently verified, in terms of magnitude of gain. Vendors will want such attitudes and those making the spending decisions will want to keep their jobs.