Tuesday, September 17, 2024

80/20 Rule for TV Ratings: Why Sports Matter

According to TV ratings firm Nielsen, in 2023, the National Football League accounted for 93 of the year’s 100 most-watched TV shows in the U.S. market.


That’s a good example of the 80/20 rule, formally known as a Pareto principle, which suggests that 80 percent of consequences come from 20 percent of causes. 


More than a third of U.S. broadcaster NBC's viewing time in 2023, for example,  was attributable to NFL games and related programming, according to analysts at MoffettNathanson. CBS was even more dependent, at 40 percent. And at Fox, NFL games and other "shoulder programming" accounted for 63 percent of the time viewers spent with the network.


Beyond the NFL, sports programming drives a disproportionate share of revenue. 


Broadcaster

Top 20% of Programs (Revenue)

Remaining 80% of Programs (Revenue)

ABC

Major sporting events (e.g., NFL, NBA Finals)

Other sports programming, general entertainment

NBC

NFL, Olympics, Premier League

Other sports programming, general entertainment

CBS

NFL, NCAA March Madness, PGA Championship

Other sports programming, general entertainment

FOX

NFL, NASCAR, MLB postseason

Other sports programming, general entertainment


More significantly, National Football League revenue and profit also showed a Pareto distribution. in all cases, a relatively small percentage of programming time (five to 10 percent) is responsible for a disproportionately large percentage of profits (25 to 40 percent).


Network

Program Time %

Profit %

ABC

5

25

NBC

7

30

CBS

8

35

Fox

10

40


And that pattern has been in place for a while. 


source: Sportico 



That heavy draw of NFL content also suggests some potential churn issues for linear or video streaming firms showing NFL content, namely the danger of annual cycles of churn, as football season ends. 


Of course, there are other sports happening at other times of year than the NFL, but those sports do not have the drawing power of the NFL. Of course, once every couple of years there is an Olympics telecast that is highly viewed, but that event does not provide an annual or season-long upsurge in viewing. 



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