Even Before AI, Data Center "Net Zero" Was an Impossible Goal, for Most

It is in some ways refreshing when realistic assessments are made about potential progress towards climate goals, as we are unlikely to meet the current goals in any case, as Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, notes. “We're not going to hit the climate goals anyway,” he bluntly said. 

We might as well be realistic about how much can be done, in terms of carbon and other emissions. Nearly every stated goal we see is unlikely to be met. We might not prefer that outcome, but that seems to be the reality, so we might as well work on what can be accomplished, rather than pursuing unworkable plans that already are destined to fail.

And that applies to data center sustainability as to all other sustainability goals. In other words, present net zero goals, to say nothing of negative emissions profiles, are impossible in the artificial intelligence era. 

Of course, any person, company or nation can choose not to use AI, but that will not prevent climate goal failure. That would happen even in the absence of any additional AI processing activities.  

Climate Target	Organization/Agreement	Target Deadline	Goal	Current Progress and Likelihood of Success
Net-Zero Global Carbon Emissions	Paris Agreement (2015)	2050	Limit global warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels	Unlikely under current policies. Global emissions are still rising, and only a few countries have detailed roadmaps to achieve net-zero by 2050. A massive scale-up in renewable energy, electrification, and industrial reform is required.
Reduce Emissions by 45% from 2010 levels	Paris Agreement (IPCC SR15)	2030	Achieve 1.5°C temperature increase limit	Unlikely. While some regions (EU) have committed to reductions, global emissions need to fall by 7.6% annually to meet this target, but they are still rising.
Phase out coal power plants	Various pledges, COP26	2030s (developed); 2040s (developing)	End reliance on coal as a primary energy source	Mixed. Coal usage has been reduced in the EU and US, but major emitters like China and India continue to expand coal power. Global coal phase-out is slow.
Methane emissions reduction by 30% from 2020 levels	Global Methane Pledge (COP26)	2030	Reduce methane emissions to limit short-term warming	Uncertain. Methane emissions from agriculture and oil/gas remain high, but new policies to detect and reduce leaks in energy and industry are promising.
100% sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs)	COP26 ZEV Declaration	2040 globally; 2035 for major markets	End sales of internal combustion vehicles	Possible in some regions. Several countries (UK, EU) have set ambitious bans on fossil-fuel vehicles, but progress in developing markets is slower.
Halting deforestation and land degradation	Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration (COP26)	2030	Stop deforestation to protect carbon sinks	Unlikely. Deforestation continues in regions like the Amazon and Congo. Efforts to reduce illegal logging are hindered by political and economic factors.
Finance for climate mitigation and adaptation	Paris Agreement and UNFCCC	$100 billion per year by 2020, extended through 2025	Provide climate financing for developing countries	Behind schedule. Developed nations have not fully met this target. The annual climate finance commitment remains short of the promised $100 billion.
Energy from renewable sources at 60-80%	Various (IEA, IPCC reports)	2050	Global energy generation from renewables	Possible but challenging. The renewable energy capacity is growing rapidly (solar, wind), but fossil fuels still dominate energy consumption globally.
Achieving Circular Economy principles	EU Circular Economy Action Plan, UN SDGs	2030	Reduce waste, increase recycling and efficiency	Possible in some regions. The EU leads in circular economy initiatives, but widespread adoption globally is still limited by lack of infrastructure and policy.
Ocean Protection: 30x30 Initiative	High Ambition Coalition (Biodiversity)	2030	Protect 30% of the world's oceans	Uncertain. Ocean protection commitments are increasing, but enforcement of protected areas and addressing overfishing remain major challenges.
Climate Resilient Infrastructure	Paris Agreement, IPCC	Ongoing	Build resilient infrastructure to withstand climate impacts	Lagging. Many countries lack adequate infrastructure planning for climate resilience. Investments in adaptation are growing but still insufficient.