Will AI Exceed Internet in Terms of Producitivity Gains?

If the value of the internet had to be summed up in just one word, that would probably be “connectivity:” people to people; people to apps; people to devices; people to information; devices to devices. 

And though we cannot be fully sure yet, if we had to sum up artificial intelligence in just one word, that might be “augmentation” today, but most observers probably would agree we are on a road to some form of  “intelligence” eventually. 

That might raise the question of whether the internet or AI will have more impact on life, business and economies, though few seem to doubt that both are huge innovations.

Today, AI mostly augments human capabilities, which is not so different from other general-purpose technologies of the past that amplified human muscle power, sight, sound, mobility, memory or speech.

But it will be hard to determine whether communicatiion is more important than decision making; information access more valuable than knowledge creation.  

General-Purpose Technology (GPT)	Amplified Capability or Sense
Printing Press (15th century)	Knowledge Sharing, Memory
Steam Engine (18th century)	Physical Strength, Mobility
Electricity (19th century)	Vision (Lighting), Strength (Machines)
Telegraph & Telephone (19th century)	Communication (Hearing, Speech)
Automobile (19th-20th century)	Mobility, Speed
Radio & Television (20th century)	Hearing, Vision
Computers (20th century)	Calculation, Memory, Logic
Internet (20th century)	Communication, Knowledge Access
AI & Machine Learning (21st century)	Pattern Recognition, Decision-Making

But many observers might already suggest that AI’s potential impact could be greater than the value added by the internet. While the internet broke geographic and physical limitations, connecting people and information faster,  AI has the potential to automate and augment human capabilities across a wider range of tasks and industries.   

AI has the potential to automate cognitive tasks, automate routine processes of all sorts and amplify pattern recognition in almost any sphere of life or industry.

The internet's productivity gains arguably were largely driven by increased connectivity and information access. AI's productivity gains are expected to come from advanced automation and “intelligent” systems. 

   

Feature	Internet Impact	AI Impact (Expected)
Primary Productivity Drivers	Increased information access.  Enhanced communication.  Automation of information-based tasks E-commerce and digital markets	Advanced automation of cognitive and physical tasks. Optimization of complex processes. Creation of AI-driven products and services. Data driven decision making.
Quantifiable Productivity Gains	Significant increase in total factor productivity (TFP) during the "internet boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Studies indicate a notable contribution to GDP growth.	Estimates vary widely: some predict a substantial boost to GDP within the next decade (e g , Goldman Sachs projecting a potential 15% GDP boost).  Studies suggest potential increases in annual TFP growth by 0 25 to 0 6 percentage points.  Micro level studies show very high increases in productivity in specific sectors
Key Productivity Sectors	Information technology Finance  Retail Communication	Manufacturing Healthcare  Finance  Transportation Customer service Software development