Sunday, September 7, 2025

A Stunning "Controlled Experiment" Shows How Hard "Good Public Policy" Can Be

Students of the effectiveness of public policy might agree, if they thought about it, that we rarely have any way of assessing the effectiveness of policies we devise to solve stated problems, such as protecting students and teachers from Covid infections, for example. 


But sometimes we accidentally do find the closest proxy to a controlled experiment that we are ever likely to find in real life. 


During the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the 2020-2021 school year when many public schools in the United States were closed or operating remotely due to lockdowns and health concerns, the majority of Catholic schools remained open for in-person or hybrid instruction. 


According to data from the National Catholic Educational Association, 92 percent of Catholic schools were offering full-time in-person or hybrid learning by early 2021, with most reopening in the fall of 2020 where local regulations permitted. 


This contrasted sharply with large public school districts in cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, which often stayed closed for the entire year. 


Regarding COVID-19 transmission, there were no reports of major widespread outbreaks or significant spikes in cases attributable to Catholic schools during this period. 


Multiple sources, including diocesan reports and analyses, indicate that infection rates in these open Catholic schools were generally low and comparable to or below community averages, thanks to rigorous health protocols. 


For instance, in the Archdiocese of Washington, officials reported in late 2020 that safety measures were effective even as regional cases rose, with no evidence of school-driven surges. 


Similarly, a 2023 analysis noted that Catholic schools maintained in-person learning without significant increases in infection rates, despite 17 percent of teachers being high-risk. 


Broader studies on school reopenings, such as those tracking U.S. districts in 2020-2021, found that in-person instruction in elementary and secondary settings (including private ones) did not lead to substantial community transmission when mitigation strategies were in place. While isolated cases occurred. Catholic schools were frequently highlighted as models for safe reopening, with no documented "major problems" like mass closures due to outbreaks. 


Title/Publication

URL

Publication Date

Why Catholic schools didn't fail while public ones did during COVID (New York Post)

New York Post

November 15, 2022

While public schools closed on fear and politics, Catholic schools opened on love and science (Washington Examiner)

Washington Examiner

June 28, 2023

Catholic Schools Have Stayed (Mostly) Open During The Pandemic (WGBH)

WGBH

February 25, 2021

COVID heroes: Catholic schools safely reopened (USA Today)

USA Today

February 12, 2021

COVID-19 cluster size and transmission rates in schools from ... (PMC)

NIH

N/A (academic study, circa 2022)

NCEA Releases 2020 - 2021 Data on State of Catholic Schools ... (NCEA)

NCEA

February 2021

ED624233 - Catholic School Enrollment Boomed during COVID ... (ERIC)

ERIC

2022

Analysis of Catholic School Reopening Plans in Fall 2020 (Digital Commons @ LMU)

Digital Commons

2021

It seems fairly obvious now, with our better understanding of Covid transmission, Covid vaccine effectiveness and lethality for people of different ages and health states, that the policies of closing public schools was a mistake. A rather big mistake.

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