Tuesday, January 27, 2026

The Best Argument for Sustainable Neocloud Role in the AI Ecosystem

Perhaps the “best” argument for a permanent role for neocloud service providers is the relevance of enterprise private cloud inference services, which arguably cost less than public cloud providers


While hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) dominate general-purpose computing and model training, neoclouds (CoreWeave, Nebius, Hut 8 and others) have some advantages for inference operations, at least for the moment. 


How sustainable that advantage might be is the question. But the logic for long-term relevance generally rests on a few key arguments. 


Enterprises increasingly are wary of sending sensitive proprietary data (financial records, healthcare data, IP) to public multi-tenant clouds for inference.So neocloud providers can offer private services that , satisfy strict compliance (GDPR, HIPAA) and data sovereignty requirements that public clouds arguably struggle to guarantee.


The former bitcoin miners are essentially energy arbitrage firms. They have spent years securing the world's cheapest power contracts and building high-density cooling infrastructure. So they might have an advantage supporting services using high-performance graphics processing unitss (Nvidia H100s/Blackwell) at a lower marginal cost than hyperscalers.


Some believe neoclouds can undercut hyperscaler GPU hourly rates by 30 percent to 50 percent.


Neocloud providers also offer advantages in portability. Since neoclouds typically provide raw compute (Kubernetes/bare metal), enterprises can build portable inference engines. If a company wants to move their Llama 3 or Mistral inference workload from CoreWeave to Nebius to chase a lower price, they can do so easily.


Even if long-term evolution remains unclear, and even if questions about sustainability remain, virtually all forecasts project near-term revenue growth, though differing in the magnitude of those forecasts. 


Provider

2025 Est. Revenue / Run-Rate

2026 Forecast / Target

Key Enterprise Strategy

CoreWeave

~$8.0 Billion

$10B+ (High visibility from backlog)

The market leader. Deep partnership with Microsoft (serving as Azure's "overflow" valve) allows them to capture massive overflow inference demand.

Nebius Group

~$500–550 Million

$3.45B – $7.0B

Aggressive growth. Heavily focused on "AI Cloud 3.1"—a full-stack platform specifically targeting enterprise model deployment and inference.

Iris Energy

~$300 Million (AI specific)

~$3.4 Billion (Annualized AI Revenue target)

"Mega-deal" focus. Recently secured a $9.7B deal with Microsoft, validating the model of miners acting as sovereign infrastructure partners.

Hut 8

~$150–200 Million (HPC)

~$450 Million (Annualized NOI from new lease)

Infrastructure-first. Pivoted to a "landlord" model for AI, signing a $7B/15-year lease deal to host AI workloads, providing extreme stability.

Hive Digital

~$100 Million (Annualized Run-Rate)

~$140 Million (HPC Run-Rate Target)

The "Double Helix." Maintains a strong Bitcoin mining arm while upgrading legacy fleets to Tier 3 data centers for boutique enterprise inference.


CoreWeave arguably has the greatest degree of revenue visibility, though, based on its backlog, which might be as much as two orders of magnitude greater than other competitors. 


Provider

2024 Revenue

2025 Revenue (Forecast)

2026 Revenue (Forecast)

Notes [Sources]

CoreWeave

$1.92B

$5.0-5.1B zacks

$10.9-14.9B spglobal

$55B backlog; GPUaaS leader marketwise

Lambda Labs

~$425M ARR (late)

$520M+ (FY Sep) finance.yahoo

N/A

$500M ARR mid-2025; cloud GPU growth sacra+1

Crusoe Energy

$276M tsginvest

$998M ainvest+1

~$2B tsginvest

Stargate project; stranded gas power tsginvest

Hut 8

N/A

~$650M (annualized) ainvest

N/A

AI expansion; Q4 $162M quarterly ainvest

HIVE Digital

N/A

N/A

BUZZ HPC $140M ARR hivedigitaltechnologies

285% YoY Q2 growth hivedigitaltechnologies

Vast Data

~$200M ARR (early)

N/A

$600M ARR calcalistech+1

AI storage; 5-7 yr contracts calcalistech

Soluna Computing

N/A

N/A

N/A

Q3 2025 rev. up 37%; 100MW AI sites barchart+1


All that noted, perhaps the best rationale for a continued value chain role for the neoclouds is demand for private inference capabilities needed by enterprises.


No comments:

The Best Argument for Sustainable Neocloud Role in the AI Ecosystem

Perhaps the “best” argument for a permanent role for neocloud service providers is the relevance of enterprise private cloud inference serv...