What Does "4G" Mean, Now that ITU Has Defined it Out of Existence?

The International Telecommunications Union has settled on a definition of "fourth generation" networks that requires 100 Mbps in a mobile deployment and 1 Gbps in a fixed deployment. None of the actual 4G networks now in operation or planned are actually going to run that fast. So now users have to decide whether standards are set in the marketplace or by standards bodies.

Will 4G be Different from 3G, and if So, How?

Exactly how 4G products and services evolve is highly uncertain at this time and very similar to when wireless operators first deployed 3G networks, Fitch Ratings argues.

For 3G networks, the industry did not offer a good view of this until smartphones, in particular the iPhone and other similarly oriented devices, drove significant consumer uptake for broadband data, as opposed to the earlier growth provided by 2G email services.

Longer term, Fitch expects the majority of operators should achieve data device penetration rates of at least 70 percent to 80 percent. If so, mobile broadband will collectively represent the killer app for 3G. But what about 4G? Is it just "3G with more speed," or something else?

Fitch expects that 4G services will likewise be defined by innovative devices, perhaps tablet oriented, with new content applications, including video that will drive significantly increased demand for data. If so, 4G might ultimately be different from 3G in providing a platform for different types of end user experiences.

There is a line of thinking that the value of 4G might initially accrue in large part from significantly-lower the cost per-bit costs to provide mobile broadband. Verizon Wireless, for example, believes the cost to deliver a megabyte of data on 4G with LTE will be half to a third of the costs of a 3G network.

But if the 4G experience is anything like what we've seen with 3G, it might take years for the answer to be found.

To Build a Mobile Network, You Need Access to Rooftops

Wireless operators frequently cannot build their networks as fast as they would like because they cannot always get rooftop access rights as fast as they would like, or at prices they believe are reasonable. Here Sprint talks about rooftops in New York city.

Clearwire to Launch Prepaid Services

Clearwire plans to launch a new prepaid service for users of its WiMAX fourth-generation (4G) network. The apparent effort likely will attempt to entice more-casual users to buy service before competing HSPA+ and Long Term Evolution networks launch and basically eradicate the bandwidth advantage Clearwire has had since 2008.

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442505/000095012310081459/v56755e8vk.htm

Is Video the Killer App for 4G?

One can argue that access to  web applications has turned out to be the "killer app" for 3G.

One might also speculate that video might be the killer app for 4G.

Click the image for a larger view that shows the various channels consumers now use for video.

Clearwire LTE Plans Won't Be Long In Coming

Clearwire and Sprint Nextel have been dropping clear hints that Clearwire could adopt Long Term Evolution as an air interface, either alongside its existing WiMAX network or as an eventual replacement.

Since the U.S. wireless industry has been through technology transitions before, it isn't hard to suggest how it might happen, and when. Companies have had to make transitions from one air interface to another within a single generation of technology, as well as migrating customers from an older generation to a new generation.

Where one air interface is switched out in favor of another within a technology generation, the trick is to add all new customers to the new interface while allowing the legacy base of customers to dwindle through attrition. At some point, the old network then can be shut down without undue disruption.

Where an older generation network is replaced by a next-generation network, additional spectrum also is required. If Clearwire wants to shift air interfaces within the fourth generation, it would maintain current customers on WiMAX, while creating a new LTE network alongside WiMAX, signing up new customers on LTE, and allowing WiMAX customers to gradually shrink through attritiion.

That suggests Clearwire will not want to wait too long, as it will want to limit the number of WiMAX customers it has to support while the LTE network is populated with customers.

As an operational matter--and there are other issues to consider--moving sooner is better than moving later, especially given the larger number of customers now coming onboard on the WiMAX network because of the popularity of the Evo.

On the other hand, abrupt action is not required, or even preferable, as the practical details of interworking between LTE and WiMAX, in the core of the network, will have to be proven, in a full deployment mode.

Handset suppliers will also need some time to ready suitable handsets that interwork, as devices now can use either the 2G and 3G networks, or 3G and 4G networks. Alternatively, Clearwire could encourage single-network devices.

With most consumers on two-year contracts, and a natural handset replacement cycle that runs two to three years, customers can be moved to LTE as they replace their current WiMAX devices.

The point is that Clearwire has plenty of spectrum, and industry executives have lots of experience with technology transitions. It will take some planning, and some time, but it is a normal and expected part of the business that air interfaces and networks are changed, at least every 10 years, and sometimes sooner, for other business reasons.

LTE Tests Signal Clearwire Is Serious

Will Clearwire Make its 2010 Buildout Goals?

Summer normally is the time of year when landline and wireless construction gets into really high gear. In Clearwire's case, it had better.

Clearwire is racing to add coverage and win customers before Verizon unveils out LTE network in the fourth quarter of this year. At the moment Clearwire might be only half way to meeting its 2010 timetable.

Some of us are anxious for Clearwire to meet its goals, on time. Clearwire might be even more motivated, as the spectrum and speed advantage the company has held over all its other major competitors will be coming to an end relatively soon.

Verizon's LTE network is supposed to be lit, covering 100 million people with Verizon's own fourth-generation network, and taking away much of Clearwire's marketing advantage.

Clearwire isn’t Even Halfway to its 4G Coverage Goals

Verizon Wireless 4G Caps "Unfair"?

Verizon Wireless boss Lowell McAdam reportedly said at a Barclays Capital conference that Verizon Wireless likely will move away from unlimited plans on the 4G Long Term Evolution network, instead charging for 'buckets' of megabytes.

That is one more sign of the direction the entire industry will take. Some observers think this is somehow unfair. They sometimes base this belief on the lower "cost per megabit per second" or "cost per transferred megabyte" of a 4G network, compared to a 3G network.

It is no more inherently unfair than a company lowering its headcount, wage rates, reducing advertising or any other steps it may take to keep costs in line with anticipated revenues.

The fundamental trend in the communications business is that the "retail price" of bandwidth keeps dropping. When that happens, providers must sell more units to maintain flat revenue. In a business that also has major declining lines of business, any entity must, over time, reduce its costs in line with the revenue drops in those lines of business as well.

The net effect is a need for greater efficiency, and the lower cost per bit of a 4G network is part of that effort, as much as it is a hedge against constantly-growing bandwidth demand.

Moore's Law adequately captures the typical pace of semiconductor density change. But most of the rest of the natural world cannot improve its performance metrics at that pace. Not batteries, not construction, transportation, manufacturing or marketing cost. Greater efficiency in the transmission network is simply part of preparing for a future where bandwidth costs, per unit, will keep squeezing.

Verizon looking at non-unlimited plans for 4G data

Walt Mossberg Sorts Through HSPA+, 4G Claims

LTE of 100 Mbps at 75 Km

Telstra and Nokia Siemens Networks have conducted groundbreaking trials of Long Term Evolution networks in Australia, successfully achieving peak speeds of 100 Mbps download and 31 Mbps upload over a record-breaking distance of 75 kilometers in regional Victoria.

Performance of that sort helps explain why, after years of wrangling, Telstra has agree to essentially divest itself of its fixed-line network and become a wholesale buyer of capacity to support its fixed-line operations.

As has been the case elsewhere, incumbent carriers can be persuaded to trade away an access near-monopoly for something else of tangible value. For some, it is the ability to expand in non-traditional markets outside the existing footprint. For others it is a chance to invest in higher-growth or higher-margin businesses.

For Telstra, the LTE carrot is more appetizing than the structural separation stick.

IT-Online - LTE world-first trial achieves 100Mbps at 75km

FCC to Allow "Re-Purposing" of 90 MHz of Mobile Satellite Spectrum

The Federal Communications Commission has initiated a proceeding to free up 90 MHz of spectrum
for mobile broadband by removing barriers to flexible use of satellite spectrum allocated for other purposes.

The FCC already has approved the Harbinger-SkyTerra transaction, which will enable Harbinger to
invest billions of dollars in building a 4G wireless network using spectrum that includes spectrum in the mobile satellite service bands that originally were licensed for mobile satellite only. Under new rules, that spectrum can be used for terrestrial fourth-generation mobile use as well.

The FCC had already allowed some terrestrial service over MSS, allowing satellite operators to build ground-based networks over the spectrum to augment the larger satellite network. But the FCC now has lifted the satellite requirement entirely from two other MSS bands, the L-band and the band known as Big-LEO (low earth orbit), where satellite operators like SkyTerra and GlobalStar operate.

The FCC apparently is moving towards allowing satellite operators could lease out their spectrum to terrestrial operators as well, allowing them to augment or build their own mobile broadband networks. Currently, the rules allow MSS-license holders to wholesale capacity on networks they build, but the MSS operators might also be allowed to sell wholesale access to the spectrum itself.

Less Apple Hype Than is Typical

Apple is expected to unveil a new iPhone on June 7 that is thinner with a flat back, higher resolution display and a front-facing camera. Apple might have additional details about the iAd network and Game Center, the social networking feature, according to Wall Street Journal reports.

There might be less hype for this upgrade than typically is the case, because of the unauthorized leak of a prototype.

A new iPhone OS 4.0 operating system also will be debuted.

Analysts believe that the phone will be priced at a similar range as the current iPhone 3GS, which starts at $199 with a two-year contract, with the iPhone 3GS price cut to $99 with a similar contract.
The new lower price for the 3GS device, combined with AT&T Inc.'s new data prices, which lower the entry-level monthly service rate, could accelerate demand beyond the strong triple-digit growth the phone has been seeing, some believe.

"One of the impediments to smartphone adoption has been the service plan," says Shaw Wu, an analyst for Kaufman Brothers, adding that "when they make a form factor change, it's pretty powerful."

Apple is expected to sell about 36 million iPhones in its fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2010.

WiMAX and HSPA+ Speeds About Equal, in This Test

At least according to this test of the T-Mobile USA network and the Sprint 4G network in Philadelphia, Sprint's WiMAX network and T-Mobile's HSPA+ network delivered roughly similar download speeds, just shy of 3 Mbps on average.

These are real-world, average speeds, not "up to" numbers. By some estimates, 3 Mbps is easily twice as fast as the typical real-world speed with 3G, and faster than many home DSL connections.

4G Networks Tested: WiMAX vs. HSPA : The Numbers (Phone Scoop):

Sprint HTC Evo: the Video

Ad for the new Sprint HTC Evo, coming June 4.

4G Confusion Coming as iPhone "4G" Launches

Things are about to get a bit confusing. Apple's next version of the iPhone is being called "4G," though that is not related to fourth-generation mobile networks such as WiMAX and Long Term Evolution. Maybe Apple won't release it with a retail moniker of "4G," but if it does, the term is likely to cause a bit of consumer confusion about 4G.

The other issue is what people will discover 4G means, even when they do start buying, and using devices built for 4G networks.

But there's less to 4G than meets the eye, at least initially. It does support higher bandwidth, but that is more like the difference between a 3 Mbps connection and a 6 Mbps connection. More, but possibly not qualitatively a distinct experience.

The Associated Press: 4G wireless: It's fast, but outstripped by hype

HTC Evo Running Android 2.2

Some people are going to find the HTC Evo's "massive screen" annoying, to the extent that it makes the device bigger (slightly bigger than the comparable Verizon HTC Incredible, but it has some advantages.

The Evo doesn't use the OLED screen found on the Nexus One, but instead uses a TFT display which means the Evo will be easier to use in daylight.

more here

WiMax 2: 100 Mbps Downstream Bandwidth

A second-generation standard for WiMAX now under development by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers promises 100 Mbps downstream bandwidth.

The 802.16m standard will significantly boost first-generation WiMAX speeds. Sprint's Xohm network generally supports speeds between 3.7 Mbps to 5 Mbps.

Significantly, the speed boost will be possible over the same distances WiMAX now operates over. WiMAX covers about 31 square miles from each access point.

WiMax vs LTE: What WiMax 2 promises - Feature - Techworld.com:

4G Speeds From T-Mobile

T-Mobile USA is touting its "4G speeds" in the Northeastern United States and other major cities across the country. Some are going to argue at the claim, which is properly made. T-Mobile's HSPA+ network will in face operate at speeds fourth-generation network providers are promising.

Users will not care about which air interface gives them their bandwidth, but they will care about the speed. It's true "4G speed" is not the same thing as "4G network," but only carriers care about such things. Users just want the better performance.

The latest activations are in the New York City metropolitan area, including New Jersey and Long Island, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, Connecticut (Hartford, New Haven, Milford and Stamford) and Providence, R.I.

The faster network already is live in Philadelphia, as well the Washington, D.C. suburbs. Boston and Washington, D.C. are expected to be "lit" in the coming weeks.

4G Speeds From T-Mobile Now Broadly Available in the Northeastern U.S. and Other Major Cities | Business Wire:

Sprint Might be Looking at LTE for its 3G Network

Sprint Nextel Corp. has issued a 'next generation network' request for proposal for its CDMA third-generation mobile network in the United States, and Long Term Evolution (LTE) has emerged as a potential technology choice.

The RFP does not appear to affect the Clearwire network presently using WiMAX, but the "legacy" CDMA network that underpins Sprints current 3G network that operates in the 800 MHz and 1900 MHz frequency bands.

Light Reading Mobile - 4G/LTE - Sprint RFP May Include LTE - Telecom News Analysis:

LTE Adoption Will Take Some Time: It Always Does

It will take at least five years before Long Term Evolution devices represent 25 percent of mobile broadband device sales (PC dongles, not phones), once they are introduced, and it might take as long as 16 years before LTE device sales reach their peak, based on past experience with new mobile air interfaces and device sales, according to Keith Mallinson, founder of WiseHarbor Research.

Assuming the first LTE networks activate in early 2011, that implies it will be 2016 before dongles and aircards based on LTE will represent a quarter of broadband dongle and aircard sales.

Mallinson also predicts it will be 2019 before LTE device sales are equal to CDMA-based technology devices, such as those using EV-DO, and HSPA/HSPA+.

History suggests that new mobile technologies to peak demand takes far longer than the five years, and as much as 16 years for a mobile technology to mature.

That suggests today's third-generation networks will be dominant for quite some time. AT&T Mobility, for example, recently surprised observers when it decided that, instead of moving directly to LTE, it would upgrade its existing 3G network to HSPA+. That will prove a quick bandwidth boost from about 3.5 Mbps to 7.2 Mbps for a relatively small amount of capital investment, even as it plans to start building its 4G network in 2011.

But such plans also mean that AT&T can target its 4G build to the most-dense markets, and count on the faster 3G network in less-dense areas that the company might take some time to build out, as typically is the case when new mobile networks are constructed..

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