Tablets, Cloud Computing are at Hype Cycle Peak

Media tablets, private cloud computing, and 3D flat-panel TVs and displays are some of the technologies that have moved into the Peak of Inflated Expectations, according to the 2010 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle by Gartner.

Click on the image for a larger view. 

That virtually guarantees there will be a period of relative disillusionment coming for tablet devices and cloud computing. That is not to say they will not be important, only that the wave of hype now is cresting.

Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies

Gartner Drops "Unified Communications" from 2010 "Top 10" List

Unified communications, which was on Gartner's "top 10" trends list for 2009, has been dropped from the 2010 list, which moves "cloud computing" to the top spot. 


People will disagree about what that means, but no trend remains "top of mind" forever. Nor is the ranking an indication that UC is unimportant, simply that it might not be among the most-important priorities for the coming year.


It might simply indicate that most enterprises have figured out what they want to do, for the moment. 


It might indicate that computing architecture, and issues related to computing architecture, which always are top concerns for enterprise IT staffs, once again have moved to the forefront, and that "voice" issues related to IP telephony are largely in an advanced stage of deployment. 


In fact, four of the top-six issues are directly related to remote computing capabilities. 

Hardware Sales Flat, Software up 4.8%, Telecom up 2.3% in 2010, Says Gartner

Providers of information technology solutions likely will have to emphasize customer retention more than customer acquisition in 2010 and 2011 because of a sales environment that will remain challenging, says Richard Gordon, Gartner Research VP. That said, sales of IT hardware and software will grow about 3.3 percent in 2010, about in line with telecom service provider revenue growth of 3.2 percent.

Enterprise hardware sales, for example, will show zero growth in 2010, compared to 2009, Gartner forecasts, in part because hardware lifecycles have lengthened.

Software sales, on the other hand, should grow 4.8 percent, says Gartner.

25% of Business Apps to be Created by Amateurs, Gartner Says

By 2014, citizen developers will build at least 25 percent of new business applications, according to Gartner analysts. If that is shocking, consider the amount of Web content now freely contributed to Wikipedia or many of your favorite blogs, microblogging sites and YouTube.

Gartner defines a citizen developer as a user operating outside of the scope of enterprise IT and its governance that creates new business applications for consumption by others either from scratch or by composition.

"Future citizen-developed applications will leverage IT investments below the surface, allowing IT to focus on deeper architectural concerns, while end users focus on wiring together services into business processes and workflows," says Eric Knipp, Gartner senior research analyst.

Better technology has also lowered the bar for becoming a developer, while at the same time, users have become less intimidated by technology, empowering citizen developers to do more than they ever could before, Knipp says. Y

"The bottom line lies in encouraging citizen developers to take on application development projects that free IT resources to work on more complex problems," Knipp says.

"Citizen development skills are suited for creating situational and departmental applications like the ones often created in Excel or Access today," he says.

Google Will Buy 30% of Servers in 2010

In 2010, say analysts at the Gartner Group, Google alone will consume 30 percent of all the world’s servers. That's three out of 10 of all servers manufacturing globally that year. That's some serious scale! And explains why Google buys so much optical bandwidth, and is investing in its own cable.