Voice Quality is Getting Worse: What Would You Expect?

Those of use who grew up with one phone company got spoiled by the reliability and quality of its communications network (despite "customer service" so bad it became an oxymoron)," says technology journalist Mark Stephens, whose pen name is Robert X. Cringely. "Those of us trying to save a few bucks by piggy-backing voice services on the Internet are starting to get what we've paid for."

Skype itself now is experiencing an outage that might take 12 to 24 hours to fix (Aug. 16).

There's a larger trend at work here, and it happens in virtually all formerly highly-regulated businesses when deregulation and new technology hit. Remember when airlines were highly regulated, and could not compete on the basis of price? How did they compete? Amenities and other non-price differentiators. Of course, prices were high and not that many people flew.

Deregulation hits and all of a sudden price becomes a key competitive weapon. Of course, when people start paying lots less, something has to give. Like amenities. But more people fly now.

So here's the problem communications service provider executives face: they can't afford to run "gold plated networks" for the same reason airlines cannot. Obsessive concern about voice quality and service availability are one thing in a highly regulated environment. Such concern is quite something else in a highly competitive marketplace where customers in fact choose to pay money for service that is quite a bit less intensive than it once was.

In a nutshell, the business problem is that operators cannot afford to maintain the same obsessive levels of quality when customers demonstrably don't care. Mobile communications is the best example. Everybody uses mobile service. And everybody knows it simply is not as reliable as wired phone service. Nor is the audio quality as good. But it's a wild success, anyway.

If people will not pay you to maintain a higher quality of service, can you afford to do it? That's the problem the global communications business faces. People are voting with their pocketbooks: buying services with lesser quality on some metrics because the overal utility of mobility is so high.

In other cases, such as over the top VoIP, they are voting with their wallets to buy cheaper services with less reliable service.

Get used to it. In virtually every deregulated, formerly monopolistic industry, overall quality will drop. Of course, there's another trend as well. New, higher cost alternatives will develop. Because some people need high quality enough to pay for it.

IP communications are very valuable. They are very useful. But they are not as robust as the old public switched network, if only because of things like latency. The services can be made more rugged, of course. It just costs money.

Where Have SunRocket Customers Gone?

TeleBlend, the new provider formed to serve former SunRocket customers, says it has 60,000. CEO Bill Fogg says TeleBlend added 3,000 the week of Aug. 6 and 1,000 on Thursday, Aug. 9. Vonage says it has gotten about 20,000 and Packet8 says it also has gotten about 20,000, according to Huw Rees, 8x8 VP. That accounts for about half the former SunRocket base. And there may be significant movement this week and next. As it turns out, nearly all former SunRocket customers have quietly continued to get service that has been paid for by TeleBlend. So as service has gone completely and finally dark on Aug. 5, people who might have done nothing because they were still able to use their SunRocket service will have to do something else, for real.

Vonage Work-Arounds in Place

Vonage has "substantially completed" the deployment of work-arounds for two of three VOIP (voice over Internet Protocol) patents claimed by Verizon Communications. Though some litigation remains, the theory that patent infringement would kill Vonage does not presently look like it will match the facts.

Vonage began deploying the two work-arounds about July 1, the company says. The two work-arounds target most of Vonage's customers, with the third work-around covering wireless voice, Citron said.

Vonage also has completed development on the third work-around, Citron notes. The company consulted outside experts to ensure that the work-arounds do not violate Verizon's patents, he adds.

The patent hiccup will be just that: a hiccup. The strategic problem remains Vonage's positioning in a world where cable triple play offers have serious traction, more call volume is migrating to wireless or text modes, and communications are becoming part of enterprise, portal, entertainment and instant messaging experiences.

Global VoIP Keeps Chugging...

Worldwide VoIP service revenue jumped 66 percent to $15.8 billion in 2006 after more than doubling in 2005, and is expected to more than triple by 2010, says Infonetics Research. Worldwide revenue from residential hosted VoIP services jumped 68 percent between 2005 and 2006 while managed IP PBX service revenue grew 45 percent.

Hosted VoIP services continue to outpace managed IP PBX services by far, with residential services fueling the market, but the business segment is also growing, and will continue to, Infonetics says.

“Asia Pacific has been leading the VoIP services scene for a couple of years, with Japan’s SoftBank pioneering the service and taking a strong lead, but the EMEA and North America regions have gained some ground at the expense of Asia in the last two years. The Latin American-Caribbean region is also posting impressive growth and gaining share,” said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst at Infonetics Research and lead author of the report.

The number of worldwide residential/SOHO VoIP subscribers nearly doubled between 2005 and 2006, to 46.5 million, 46 percent of which are in the Asia Pacific region.

About 71 percent of worldwide VoIP service revenue came from residential/SOHO customers in 2006, 29 percent from business customers.

SoftBank is the world's largest VoIP service provider with 18 percent subscriber market share, followed in order by NTT, Vonage, France Télécom, and Time Warner Cable, Infonetics says.

Vonage Enhances Visual Voicemail

Vonage's enhanced Vonage Visual Voicemail now is available, and strikes me as more than visual voicemail, though there is not an elegant way to describe the feature. It is a premium service that transcribes voicemail into email. Most visual voicemail features put a message into a user email inbox, but do not provide transcription into text.

Voicemail transcripts can be sent to up to five email addresses at the same time, and to a user mobile phone using text messaging. The service costs $0.25 for each transcribed voicemail (plus applicable network fees for wireless text messages).

Some observers have been suggesting that Vonage do more in the "rich features" area and stop flogging the "lower price" angle for some time, so they will see this as a step in the right direction. I don't know offhand how long a voice message can be, but there are times when it might be really handy to have a transcript. Lists of things come to mind. Street addresses and phone numbers. Driving directions.

SunRocket, Vonage Not the Whole Story

As much as people think VoIP providers (other than cable) have got traction problems in the U.S. market, that is far from the case elsewhere. In western Europe, for example, independent VoIP providers are not only the market share leaders, but their share of market might actually be increasing, even though major incumbent telcos are actively in the market as well.

And where U.S. cable providers including Comcast, Cox, Time Warner and Cablevision are the new driving force for VoIP-driven POTS replacement, that is hardly the case in western Europe, where cable operators still have relatively slight market share.

Still, there is no denying the traction problem. According to analysts at TeleGeography, VoIP growth already has hit a plateau in the U.S. market. In western Europe growth rates not only have accelerated but might not hit a peak until 2008, says TeleGeography.

Hence the interest in VoIP 2.0, the integration of voice services with Web and enterprise applications, portals, email, documents, gaming and other end user experiences.

Ooma, PhoneGnome

Ooma hopes it can make a business in the independent VoIP space without slugging it out with incumbents, cable companies, Vonage, Packet8 and others. Ooma uses peer-to-peer technology, it reminds me of nothing so much as PhoneGnome. A user can rely on broadband and Ooma, "cutting the cord," or can keep legacy POTS and integrate Ooma with a traditional landline (the easiest way to keep 911 service). All calls within the U.S. market are free, and off-network calls are billed at Skype-like rates.

Like PhoneGnome, the revenue model is "selling boxes," not recurring revenues from services. Ooma is betting that a $400 purchase of a base hub that functions like an analog terminal adapter will appeal more than a VoIP service account. Additional Ooma adapters can be bought to add service to other analog phones on other standard wall jacks.

Perhaps the longest-lasting impact, irrespective of what happens with Ooma, is the P2P approach it uses to create a network. As with all P2P networks, each end user's client becomes a node on the network to help terminate traffic. I don't know what technology platform Ooma uses. It seems logical that Session Initiation Protocol is not what Ooma is doing on the P2P side of its platform, but it seems SIP has to be there someplace for interface to the public network at some level. But David Beckemeyer seems best placed to noodle on that.

Alec Saunders (Iotum)asks an interesting question, however. Ooma says it will try to use member POTS access to essentially avoid paying termination charges. Presumably that means invoking user phone numbers in some way. If caller ID information cannot be spoofed from the POTS phone, but only from the trunk side of the network, does that mean a user's caller ID gets delivered even when it is just a transit node between a calling party and the called party? Details are scanty at this point so I'm not sure anybody outside Oomba knows the answer.

Or maybe there isn't even a problem. Presumably Ooma would try to "terminate" a call at a local Ooma "node" and then use the Ooma P2P to retransmit the bits using the public Internet to the terminating Ooma node with no need to deliver calling number ID information.

One wonders how much longer it will be until even Tier One service providers start to take a closer look at integrating P2P in some significant way with the existing public networks, especially as those networks are upgraded for IP Multimedia Subsystem and there's more broadband in the access network.

Not P2P as an "over the top" end user application. P2P as a part of the architecture of a managed network that simply uses multiple techniques to reach deeper into the environment sitting on the other side of the traditional "network termination" point. Making customers part of the network is starting to look like good business sense.

Lights Out for SunRocket?

SunRocket appears to be refusing to accept new customers. Try calling the call center to sign up. Vonage apparently has offered to buy SunRocket for no cash, simply to provide continuity of service. No word on any response from SunRocket. A couple more bidders, said to be undercapitalized themselves, also are poking around. Not a happy day, at all.