Do Service Providers Earn Back Their Cost of Capital?

To the extent that all U.S. broadband networks rely on private capital to invest in new broadband facilities, the question of financial return for such investments is fundamental. After all, telcos, cable companies, satellite and wireless providers go to private markets for the funding to build their broadband networks, and those investors have lots of choices.

If the financial return, and the risk, of broadband facilities investment do not roughly match or exceed what is available from alternative investments, those investments will not be made, and it won't matter much how much people scream about what they can't get.

In that regard, it is fair to note that many investors no longer consider telecom an especially desirable investment. It is rare these days to find a venture capitalist willing to consider backing a new telecom equipment supplier, for example. To the extent that interest remains, it is centered on mobile and mobile applications.

And there are reasons for that investor caution. Any perusal of industry statistics or quarterly or annual financial reports, at least in developed markets, will show stress around the traditional revenue sources most communications or video suppliers rely on. 

Growth rates are down, subscriber trends are negative in many cases, profit margins are lower than has been the case historically, and there is more competition and a shift of value elsewhere in the Internet, broadband and wireless ecosystems. 

In fact, Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett argues that, over the last decade, the returns on invested capital in communications networks in U.S. markets have been anemic, at best. He argues that economic value creation has been, in aggregate, barely positive.

Wireline networks have the weakest returns on invested capital with a 1.5 percent gain over the last decade. Wireless networks had a meager return of 0.3 percent. Cable garnered a 2.5 percent return. Satellite networks had the best return on invested capital at 5.5 percent. Others, including AT&T, Comcast, Dish,Sprint and Verizon, have negative returns, Moffett argues.

You might argue that though low, those are positive numbers. True enough. But there are borrowing costs, and in many cases the cost of "good will" associated with acquisitions. Add those in and returns can go negative pretty quickly.

It probably goes without saying that potential end user shifts in the direction of over the top video entertainment do represent a threat to subscription video revenues now earned by telcos, cable and satellite companies.

A new study by Edelman suggests U.S. consumers are are disenchanted with their entertainment choices. Only about 17 percent of respondents think entertainment sources today provide “very good” or “excellent value.” That should send up a warning flag about the latent potential demand for different video and other entertainment options. 

Declining entertainment value obviously creates a gap that competing providers might be able to exploit. Unlike many other businesses, though, the video entertainment business is unusually controlled by content creators and distributors, rather than distributors. DirecTV, for example, recently had unusual success with its “Sunday Ticket” service delivering National Football League games, says Michael White, DirecTV Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President.

Those sorts of issues mean there is potential for alternative distribution methods, so long as content providers are willing to cooperate. For fixed-line access providers, there are other issues, beyond a threat to existing video service revenues, though. Some would argue that fixed networks already have trouble earning a return on invested capital that justifies deploying that capital.

Whether or not a provider of goods and services can remain in business is not a consumer's problem, of course. But the apparent difficulty of making money in the fixed-line service provider business is a key concern for service providers, naturally. 

Beyond that, to the extent fixed access networks are seen as a key underpinning of economic growth, and a "national resource," there are key public policy issues. Specifically, if robust and high-speed broadband access is a "public good," inability to earn a return on invested capital is a broader problem. 

What Next for T-Mobile USA?

AT&T easily will survive any failure of its bid to buy T-Mobile USA. T-Mobile USA, on the other hand, will continue to face strategic problems. A distant fourth in the U.S. mobile market, with no spectrum available to launch a fourth-generation network, T-Mobile USA either has to spend lots more money to try and catch up to AT&T and Verizon Wireless, or must exit the U.S. market. Few think its parent, Deutsche Telekom, has the appetite for investing.


That suggests T-Mobile USA will still be looking to sell, in the event of a failure of the AT&T bid to buy T-Mobile USA. One issue is the pool of potential buyers. But a significant strategic issue is the value of the asset in a mobile market where being "in the middle" is difficult.


AT&T and Verizon Wireless clearly lead the higher end of the market. Many other larger-regional providers lead the lower end of the market, especially the prepaid segment. That leaves firms such as Sprint and T-Mobile USA in an arguably exposed position, vulnerable to lower-cost providers on the lower end and pressure from the market leaders at the top. 


At a practical level, competing with the larger national contestants means heavy advertising and marketing costs. In some cases, the regional providers can be more targeted about such spending. And that's part of the rub. The providers of lower-cost prepaid services succeed in part by controlling their overhead costs, allowing them to offer lower prices. 


The contrast is perhaps not so stark as the positioning of a mass market retailer between Tiffany and Wal-Mart, or between Tiffany and Amazon.com, but it is the same general problem. 

T-Mobile USA has lost 850,000 contract customers in 2011. In the third quarter, sales fell 2.3 percent to $5.23 billion, though earnings rose 3.8 percent to $332 million. One wonders if earnings rose because T-Mobile USA essentially stopped investing as it would have, if it thought it was going to be an on-going business.

T-Mobile gained 826,000 prepaid customers in this year's first nine months of 2011. The problem is that profit margins for such customers are lower than margins for prepaid customers. Also, T-Mobile USA is the only service provide of the top four without the ability to sell the Apple iPhone. Deutsche Telekom's unsolved problem

Spectrum assets are another issue. T-Mobile USA’s CEO, Philipp Humm, made the point at a May 2011 hearing on the merger before the Senate Judiciary Committee. “As data usage continues to explode, spectrum is becoming a constraint to our business, with T-Mobile facing spectrum exhaust over the next couple of years in a number of significant markets,” Humm said. “Moreover, our spectrum holdings will not allow us to launch [Long Term Evolution]. ” No independent future?

AT&T Giving Up on T-Mobile USA Bid?

On November 23, 2011, AT&T and Deutsche Telekom withdrew their applications to combine spectrum owned by both companies, something that would be required if AT&T were to succeed in acquiring T-Mobile USA.

AT&T also says it will take a pretax accounting charge of $4 billion ($3 billion cash and $1 billion book value of spectrum) in the 4^th quarter of 2011 to reflect the potential break up fees due Deutsche Telekom in the event the transaction does not receive regulatory approval.

AT&T says it still is pursuing the deal, but the taking of the charge and withdrawal of applications indicate, at the very least, that AT&T thinks prospects are dimming, if not a definitive recognition that the bid will fail.  AT&T Throwing in Towel on T-Mobile USA?


Given the fact that the accounting charge will be taken in advance of the time the Department of Justice antitrust hearing would occur, some will speculate that AT&T plans to withdraw its bid to buy T-Mobile USA before the hearing. 


It is starting to look as though AT&T is preparing to abandon its acquisition attempt. 

Is Clearwire Headed for Bankruptcy?

Clearwire Corp. is weighing whether to make a big debt payment that comes due in two weeks, a decision that could ultimately lead to a bankruptcy, a danger Clearwire has been warning in its quarterly reports for some time, as the company's full business plan remains substantially unfunded. 


The $237 million payment is due Dec. 1, 2011, and Clearwire, with $698 million in cash and short-term investments on Sept. 30, 2011 can afford to make it.

But the company needs to raise lots of money if it is to stay in business after the next 12 months. Clearwire May Skip Big Debt Payment

Sprint, which owns 53 percent of Clearwire, recently has suggested it could help Clearwire with an additional cash infusion. Will Sprint throw Clearwire a Lifeline? But it also has been argued that Sprint, or any other potential investor, would be better off waiting until Clearwire actually goes bankrupt, and then buy the asset then.


Clearwire has never completed its national WiMAX network, and now says it will build an LTE network as well. Some believe even AT&T or Verizon might invest, under some circumstances, or that Clearwire could attract another major anchor customer other than Sprint. Would AT&T invest? 

AT&T: churn unaffected after rivals got the iPhone - MarketWatch

AT&T customers, apparently including many of those who use iPhones and might have complained at some point about inconsistent service, seem not to have defected to either Verizon or Sprint, AT&T says.


There is no question that iPhone exclusivity seemed to help AT&T reduce its churn rate. But many expected churn to increase once Verizon got rights to sell the iPhone. 

"Churn has not moved at all," said Glen Lurie, president of emerging devices for AT&T. Of course, aggregate or "net" churn might not entirely tell the story.


It is theoretically possible that more customers left, but even more customers signed up, producing no adverse effect on overall churn. AT&T churn unaffected after rivals got the iPhone

Technically, it appears AT&T churn has been inching upwards, but by an amount small enough that the overall trend is "flat."

AT&T Adds Mobile VoIP App

IP Carrier source

AT&T smart phone customers now will be able to make international calls from their mobile devices using a VoIP app developed in conjunction with 8x8. AT&T "Call International" is a free mobile VoIP app providing international long distance calling at low, competitive rates.

Developed with and operated by 8x8, AT&T smart phone customers can use the app to make calls from the U.S. to international numbers; and when abroad, customers will benefit from the same low rates using the app over Wi-Fi . 


A list of countries and rates are available at www.att.com/callinternational.



The app provides simple, step-by-step instructions to establish an AT&T Call International account. Once established, customers can immediately make international calls through the app by either dialing directly or by accessing their existing contacts list. All calls are billed directly to the customer's credit card.


The AT&T Call International app is available now as a free download in Android Market, BlackBerry AppWorld and more. AT&T Mobile Adds VoIP-Based International Calling

Judge allows Sprint suit against AT&T/T-Mobile deal

A U.S. judge has ruled that Sprint and C Spire Wireless can pursue part of their antitrust lawsuit against AT&T Inc's proposed $39 billion acquisition of T-Mobile USA. Though the judge dismissed large parts of the suit, U.S. District Judge Ellen Huvelle agreed to allow the competitors to pursue their injury claims about the effect the deal would have on the market for wireless devices.


AT&T and T-Mobile, a unit of Deutsche Telekom AG , had sought to dismiss the lawsuit, but U.S. District Judge Ellen Huvelle agreed to allow the competitors to pursue their injury claims about the effect the deal would have on the market for wireless devices.


The decision may complicate matters for AT&T and T-Mobile USA because they will now have to simultaneously fight the government's attempt to block the deal and argue against claims by the two competitors. Sprint suit against AT&T/T-Mobile deal


Though the outcome remains in doubt, some observers might argue that the fearsome, well-oiled AT&T regulatory affairs team has had an unexpectedly difficult time making the argument in favor of the acquisition. 


Some might argue that this indicates not some sudden loss of effectiveness on the part of AT&T's persuasion machine, but merely that the case is a tough one to present. 


Perhaps most difficult in that regard is the argument that there is a spectrum shortage that will be alleviated, in substantial ways, if the acquisition moves forward. Others have pointed out that it would cost less for AT&T simply to light up spectrum it already owns, for example. 


The other problem, from an antitrust perspective, is that market concentration in the U.S. mobile industry already exceeds the normal tests antitrust attorneys normally use to determine the extent of market concentration. HHI index

Wireless Revenue Slowdown?

Both AT&T and Verizon's postpaid average revenue per user growth in the third quarter was slightly lower than consensus estimates.

These trends are prompting analysts to ask whether wireless service, traditionally the telecom industry's most dynamic sector, is headed for a slump. A delay in launching the iPhone 4S probably was a factor.

Nomura Securities analyst Mike McCormack says he is "concerned about the outlook for the economics of the wireless business." McCormack notes that Verizon's wireless service revenues grew 6.1 percent in the third quarter, compared to 6.6 percent in the second quarter.

"We remain concerned about consistent industry deceleration in total service revenue," he added.

Macquarie Capital analyst Kevin Smithen also speculates about whether "some adverse macroeconomic effects [are] beginning to creep through to the carriers."

Wireless Revenue Slowdown?

Sprint Details LTE Plans As Clearwire’s Decline Accelerates | mocoNews

To say there is a bit of instability in much of the U.S. mobile backhaul market would be an understatement. After announcing it would buy about $20 billion worth of Apple iPhones, whether it can sell them or not, Sprint announced that it would expedite the building of its new Long Term Evolution network this summer, with completion by the end of 2013, a breath-taking time table. $20 billion worth of iPhones


Sprint also said it would no longer sell WiMAX devices after 2012, a clear indication Sprint intends to wean its customers off the Clearwire network. Clearwire and Sprint equities both tanked on the news. 

Sprint executives say LTE devices would be available for its network in the summer of 2012. Sprint LTE plans


Clearwire insisted it wasn’t dead, and remains essential to Sprint's 4G plans. Investors clearly aren't so sure. But with LightSquared still facing serious objections to its own LTE launch plans, that means three national networks now face a bit of uncertainty about how much capacity they will be needing, and perhaps none of the three companies can provide complete assurance of financial success in the future, as independent entities. 


Nor, for that matter, can any of the three completely shake concerns about bankruptcy. Three national networks that might not exist in the future is quite a lot of potential backhaul business that could evaporate. 


Of course, Dish Network also says it wants to build a national LTE network, so add a fourth element to the dynamic situation. 

AT&T Will Sell iPhone 3GS "Free" on 2-Year Contract

AT&T will be able to sell the Apple 3GS to customers in the United States "for no incremental cost" ("free") on two-year service contracts that must include a data plan.

Four years ago, the cheapest iPhone cost $400. Today, it's free, at least on the U.S. AT&T network. The move shows that growth in smart phone adoption now is moving rapidly into the mainstream, with most of the sales volume coming from mainstream feature phone users.

AT&T Only U.S. Wireless Carrier To Get iPhone 3GS

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

AT&T is approaching smaller rivals including MetroPCS Communications and Leap Wireless International to sell spectrum and subscribers as part of an attempt to save its $39 billion takeover of T-Mobile USA Inc., Bloomberg reports.



AT&T has also reached out to CenturyLink, Dish Network and Sprint Nextel Corp. to gauge their interest in buying assets, Bloomberg says.



Some may question the viability of those remedies, if the Department of Justice objection really is that the acquisition violates the concentration index it routinely uses.



One of the ways to measure market concentration is the Heffindahl-Hirshman Index or HHI, often used as a measure of market concentration. The HHI is the square of the percentage market share of each firm summed over the largest 50 firms in a market. Here is the pre-merger market HHI which already suggests that the market is uncompetitive. HHI is the problem


For some of us who just want a quick rule of thumb that tells you when there is potential antitrust concern, 30 percent market share tends to work.That has been the figure cable TV executives in the United States have worried about, and which the Federal Communication Commission at one point set as the limit of subscriber market share for any U.S. cable operator. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless already have market share that exceeds that figure.




The Justice Department will generally investigate any merger of firms in a market where the HHI exceeds 1,000 and will very likely challenge any merger if the HHI is greater than 1,800. With a HHI over 2,300 any deal will be heavily scrutinized and most likely rejected. Even a merger between T-Mobile USA and Sprint, with a resulting 28 percent market share, would probably not be allowed on the same antitrust grounds.

U.S. Carrier Market Concentration based on Subscribers
Company	Pre-MergerMarket Share	MarketShareSquared
Sprint Nextel	17%	412.3106
Verizon	34%	583.0952
AT &T	31%	556.7764
T-Mobile USA	11%	331.6625
MetroPCS	3%	173.2051
Leap Wireless	2%	141.4214
U.S. Cellular	2%	141.4214
Herfindahl-Hirshman Index	2339.8925

It isn’t clear how much of T-Mobile USA AT&T can shed to satisfy DoJ that there is not an HHI problem, because, by definition, AT&T already has an HHI problem. 


If the issue is the HHI, some divestitures won't help. HHI is the issue


Oddly enough, even the oft-suggested merger of Sprint and T-Mobile USA might now be impossible for regulatory reasons, and that had not been among the big concerns observers have mentioned about that particular pairing. The big issues there were seen to be incompatible networks and the complexity of managing four air interfaces at a time. If DoJ sticks with the HHI test, regulatory approval would have to become the biggest obstacle.

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

Majority of tablet customers activate 3G, AT&T says

The majority of customers who buy tablets from AT&T Mobility now also buy mobile broadband service with their devices, says Glenn Lurie, AT&T president of emerging devices, wholesale and partnerships. Most of those devices seem to use a prepaid data plan, rather than a postpaid plan. More tablet users buy mobile service


That would be a significant development, as one might argue most users will typically have to spend $50 a month for a prepaid service including 1 Gbyte of usage.

Day	$ 15	100MB
Week	$ 30	300MB
Month	$ 50	1GB

That's a big deal. In fact, for the first time in the U.S. wireless history, non-operator branded wireless connections were  the majority source of customer additions in the second quarter of 2011.

Also, almost half of the increase of mobile connections came from customers that are mostly unaware of the network they were actually using. Amazon Kindles, Barnes & Noble Nooks, countless other connected devices, and MVNOs such as TracFone were driving the growth of the industry with more than 52 percent of net additions, says Roger Entner of Recon Analytics.

The second largest growth segment was no-contract with almost a third of new subscriber additions. Contract net additions were less than 16 percent of overall net subscriber additions. B2B now drives mobile broadband

Sprint User Base is Different

Lots of people have offered, and will continue to offer, advice about how Sprint can do better in the U.S. mobile market, whether or not the AT&T deal to buy T-Mobile USA succeeds, or not. Advice, one might argue, is easy to give, especially when it concerns how any firm, lead by any set of talented managers, can change its fundamental position in a market whose structure is fairly well fixed.

Though some will question the continued relevance, a long-standing study of firms in many industries, taking a look at market share, quality and profit margin, suggests that it is very hard to change firm position in an established industry. Market share patterns

Though the existence of a correlation is not necessarily a causal relationship, there is relatively significant evidence that markets develop patterns. Pareto_principle Among the more-enduring patterns is a tendency towards market concentration by a handful of leaders.

Some might argue, for that reason, that the current U.S. mobile market structure is not unusual, and might become even more concentrated over time. The informal rule of thumb might be that in any market, most of the share i(80 percent or so) is held by a small number of providers (perhaps 20 percent or fewer).

The U.S. mobile industry is more concentrated than that, but you get the point. It would be difficult under the best of conditions for Sprint Nextel to dramatically change its position in the market. But, that noted, there are some apparent differences of end user behavior that could provide something of an opening.

Some of us would not say the differences necessarily offer Sprint a way to change its market position in a dramatic way, but might offer a way to help solidify its current position. The difference is the apparent preference for Android among Sprint users, or perhaps Sprint’s willingness to bank on Android for some highly-popular devices such as the HTC Evo line.

Note recent Yankee Group surveys indicating that Sprint users are heavy users of Android devices. It is of course possible that the data reflects Sprint’s historic inability to sell the Apple iPhone, forcing Sprint to emphasize the HTC Evo as a lead offer, and thus producing the skew Yankee Group found.

One might similarly argue that Verizon Wireless faced the same problem in the days when it also could not sell the Apple iPhone. If so, it always is possible that the Android preferences illustrated by Yankee Group are a tactical, short term user demand trend that easily could change in the future.

Still, no matter what happens with the AT&T bid to buy T-Mobile USA, Sprint is going to have to work pretty hard simply to solidify some distinctive position in the market, even as a “distant third” provider, compared to Verizon Wireless and AT&T.

It does presently appear, however, that Sprint users consume more data, and use Android, more so than customers of the other top four networks. 

Apple The World's Most-Valuable Brand

Apple is the world's most-valuable brand, Millward Brown's 2011 BrandZ study of the most-valuable global brands now shows. Apple ended a four-year run by Google at the top of the brand ranking.

Click image twice for a larger view.

Google now is the second most-valuable global brand, followed by IBM, McDonalds, Microsoft, Coca Cola and AT&T, the top-ranked telecom brand. Vodafone ranks 12th and Verizon 13th. All those telecom firms rank ahead of Amazon.

Apple Ends Google's Four-Year Run as Most Valuable Brand

AT&T Mobile Revenue Grows: It Has To

AT&T wireless data revenues, driven by messaging, Internet access, access to applications and related services, increased nearly $1 billion, or 23.9 percent, in the first quarter of 2011.

AT&T had its "best-ever first-quarter increase in total wireless subscribers," up two million to reach 97.5 million subscribers in service, with gains in every category, AT&T says.

AT&T also reported best-ever first-quarter smartphone sales of more than 5.5 million.

Those sorts of results ultimately will be important for many global mobile operators, given the gradual decline of voice revenues, and the importance of the voice revenue stream to total revenues, as this Yankee Group graphic indicates.

read more here

Apple iPhone: 2 better than 1

Apple says "Two is better than one." Better for Apple; better for consumers; better for all the suppliers of iPhone components; better for mobile app providers working in the Apple ecosystem; arguably better for Verizon Wireless; not good for AT&T; still bad for Sprint and T-Mobile USA.

That sort of illustrates the conundrum mobile service providers now face, and that fixed-line providers have faced for some time, notably that value in both ecosystems has shifted in the direction of devices and apps.

That isn't to say "access" lacks definite value. Spending time someplace with no broadband access, or with poor access, will quickly illustrate the point. Of course, contestants in the apps and devices parts of the ecosystem would say they face significant competitive pressure as well.

But the fact remains: people might "love" their apps and devices. They rarely have any emotional attachment to their "access." Of course, it is much harder to develop a true brand preference for an intangible product, compared to something tangible such as a device or a favored application.

From Apple's point of view, two is better than one. But the ad indirectly points out yet again where value is shifting in the communications business.

How Will AT&T Respond to Verizon iPhone?

What Impact on AT&T Revenue from Verizon iPhone?

Verizon Wireless is getting the right to sell the Apple iPhone, it seems clear enough. All of that has financial analysts modeling the potential impact on AT&T.

Estimates from industry analysts of the resulting number of defections to Verizon from AT&T range from one million to six million. John Hodulik, an analyst at UBS Securities comes in somewhere in the middle. He predicts that AT&T will sell 8.8 million iPhones in 2011, down from 15.6 million in 2010.

Of the 13.3 million Hodulik expects Verizon to sell in 2011, about 2.3 million will be to AT&T refugees, he predicts. An additional 10 million will be current Verizon subscribers who upgrade from other devices, and the rest will come from other carriers.

 If six million of its customers defect, the $6 billion in lost annual revenue would amount to about 10 percent of AT&T's wireless sales in 2011 and 4.8 percent of total revenues of $126 billion in 2011, according to UBS projections.

On the other hand, while AT&T has reason to worry about losing the lucrative iPhone arrangement it has enjoyed since Apple introduced the device in 2007, the damage may not be as severe as many anticipate, for a number of reasons, mostly related to financial barriers to switching.

Despite the well-reported call dropping and other service issues in some cities and neighborhoods, many iPhone users do not report unusual levels of call dropping beyond what might be expected from any carrier, at some times, and therefore presumably do not have overwhelming incentives to change carriers. Churn possibly will be highest in New York and San Francisco, for example.

There are financial barriers as well. Contract termination fees, though pro-rated, could run up to $325 for a consumer at the start of a new contract. About 15 million of 23 million iPhone customers appear to be on such contracts.

Devices used on Verizon's network will not multitask, supporting both a phone conversation and Web usage, for example. For many customers, the cost of service on the Verizon network might be more than they have been used to, on the AT&T network.

AT&T says its 3G network is faster than Verizon's 3G network, and one does not hear Verizon disputing that in public.

Perhaps most significantly, many iPhone users are on family plans. Switching every user on a plan because one or two iPhone users want to migrate could pose barriers as well. Also, many users might want to switch, but then discover that Verizon Wireless prices are higher than AT&T's, in many cases. Whether that makes a difference is tough to determine at the moment.

Rethinking the iPhone Threat to AT&T - BusinessWeek