Established and Emerging Marketing Channels

A recent survey of 113 marketing executives confirms the current pattern of marketing channels. Display advertising, email marketing, search engine optimization, social media and online listings, plus paid search, are typical marketing venues.

Mobile advertising and applications, paid social media and game marketing are the emerging categories, Forrester Research finds.

Perhaps the most surprising finding is the 45 percent use of social media such as blogs, podcasts, widgets and discussion forums. Not so long ago, those were "emerging" and "experimental" channels.

These days, it is mobile apps and advertising and paid social media which seem poised to make the move from "experimental and emerging" status to "mainstream" levels of use.

Slow Recovery Ahead for Total Media Ad Spending

Online ad spending will grow while traditional advertising channels will remain stagnant or decline, says eMarketer.

Marketers who turned to digital for its effectiveness and measureability in tough times will continue to appreciate those qualities as budgets go up, and with the world’s population spending more and more time with digital media, dollars will follow eyeballs, eMarketer predicts.

One also wonders whether the greater efficiency of online and mobile formats also is having some effect. Advertisers might reason they can achieve their objectives even while reducing overall spending.

Slow Recovery Ahead for Total Media Ad Spending - The eMarketer Blog

How to Save Newspapers, Maybe

Newspaper readership has been declining for decades. Proposals to have the government subsidize them seem not only dangerous (the press is supposed to be a watchdog for the people against the power of the government) but stupid. Should we subsidize the telegraph because everybody uses telephones, mobiles, IM, SMS, microblogging and blogging to send messages?

Distribution channels and formats change over time. So does media. I don't know whether this is the answer. But it's interesting.

New York Times Equity Now Worth Zero?

Quantum changes--such as when a liquid turns to gas or solid--are highly disruptive. That's what we've seen this year as decades of gradually-worsening business models have toppled major U.S. newspapers. Now one financial analyst says debt at the New York Times is so high it essentially values the company's equity at zero.

http://jacksonville.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2009/04/20/daily36.html?ana=yfcpc

Internet Access Big Library Attraction

Generation Y "Millenials" (age 18-30) are most likely to turn to libraries for problem-solving information of all generational groups, say researchers at the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Faced with a problem in the past two years that they needed to address, about one in eight adults (13 percent) say they turned to their local public library for help and information. And it appears computer availability is a reason.

Some 65 percent of adults who went to a library for problem-solving help said that access to computers, particularly the Internet, was key reason they go to the library for help.

Also, 62 percent of adults who went to the library for help actually used the computers at the library. At the same time, 58 percent of those with problems to solve said they used library reference books.

About 42 percent of those with problems to solve said they read library newspapers and magazines.

The problem most likely to be cited by those who went to libraries seeking information was an educational issue such as making a decision about a school, getting more training, or finding financial resources to do so. That reason was cited by 20 percent of the adults who went to libraries for help.

Asked whether they would go to a library in the future to help them solve problems, 40 percent of Gen Y respondents said it was likely they would go, compared with 20 percent of those over age 30.

About 53 percent of American adults report going to a local public library in the past 12 months. The profile of library users shows an economically upscale, information-hungry clientele who use the library to enhance their already-rich information world, Pew researchers say.

Public library patrons are generally younger adults, those with higher income and
education levels, and those who are Internet users. Parents with minor children living at home also are very likely to be patrons. There are no significant differences in library usage by race or ethnicity, Pew researchers say.

DVDs, Concerts, CDs: Attention Deficit

Alliance Bernstein Research reports that DVD sales were down 4.1 percent in December, year to date, and that the fourth quarter declined 2.1 percent, based on Nielsen VideoScan tabulations.

That makes 2007 the first negative sales growth year-over-year since DVDs came to market. Which drives one to speculate that multi-tasking and attention sharing now is beginning to show. There are other possible explanations, of course.

The high-definition format battle might be a factor. Consumers might be waiting until the dust settles before beginning a switch to HD format disks.

As retailers blame the weather for slower than anticipated sales, we might this year point to a tougher economic climate and consumer unwillingness or inability to spend on such things, as well.

The total North American concert industry also posted its slowest year since 2004. According to Pollstar, the top 20 tours generated $996 million, down 15.6 percent from 2006 totals.

What Disruption Looks Like: Newspapers

So what would disruption of the global telecom industry by IP communications look like? It's a hypothetical question, for a couple of reasons. The newspaper industry, for examnple, has been in a lingering decline in readership and ad revenue for decades. Nothing spectacular, year over year: just a steady, decades-long decline.

The telecom industry has seen something like that only in the twin areas of rates per minute charged for long distance and number of wired access lines in service. The long distance data is different from what one sees in the newspaper business in that volumes have skyrocketed even as prices have dropped. There is no such elasticity in the newspaper market.

The parallel between newspaper and telco fortunes is most similar in the area of access lines, where there might even be something like negative elasticity developing: "drop the price and people buy less." But the analogy doesn't fit very well precisely because, unlike the newspaper industry, the global telecom business has developed a huge replacement business for wirelines, namedly wireless services.

In fact, global telco revenue has been climbing steadily almost without a break for more than a century.

At the same time, telcos have discovered data services in addition to voice, broadband Internet access, entertainment video, ringtones, music and game downloads and other smallish businesses. The point isn't "smallishness." The seeds of tomorrow's business already are planted.

Newspapers have done nothing of the kind.

Last year, McClatchy, a U.S. newspaper chain, acquired Knight Ridder. To help pay down debt, McClatchy sold the Star-Tribune of Minneapolis in March for $530 million. Even with an added tax benefit of $160 million, the sale price amounted to only about half of what the company paid for the paper in 1998.

And then in November, the company took a $1.37 billion after-tax non-cash impairment charge, partly to reflect a further decline in the value of its newspapers.

The company's share price recently was $12.75, down more than 80% from the 2005 peak. The decline leaves McClatchy, the nation's third-largest newspaper publisher by daily circulation, with a market capitalization of barely $1 billion.

There is one sliver of hope: McClatchy has a position in the online classified advertising market, though newspapers collectively have lost their hoped-for lead to the likes of Craig's List.

McClatchy acquired a 14.4 percent share of CareerBuilder.com, as well as a 25.6 percent stake in Classified Ventures, the parent of Cars.com and Apartments.com.

The issue is how much success McClatchy and other major newspaper chains are going to have in the local online advertising business. Compared to the telecom industry, the newspaper industry is well behind the curve in cultivating new businesses, even if small.

One is tempted to say it is a shift of consumption to the Web that is responsible for the newspaper decline, but that's not entirely correct. Newspaper consumption began its decline long before the Web existed, so one has to blame television-based news. A shift of information consumption to the Web simply is accelerating a trend already in place.