Massive Mobile VoIP Use by 2012

Who will massively introduce mobile VoIP? Mobile carriers themselves, says Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis president. In fact, some 250 million VoIP over mobile accounts will be in service by 2012, he argues. Analysts at Analysys seem to agree, arguing that wireless VoIP end users will outnumber wired VoIP users in the near future, as shown in the graphic.

Conversely, dual-mode mobile devices that work both on wireless networks and Wi-Fi will have been eclipsed, he argues. As for independent providers of VoIP over third generation mobile networks, get ready for something of the same thing that has happened to Vonage, he essentially argues.

In other words, as the mobile carriers increasingly move to provider VoIP as an alternative to legacy Time Division Multiplex services, it will increasingly be tough for independents to make a go of it, much as competition from cable has squeezed Vonage and other independents in the U.S. market.

Independents do have a window of opportunity, though, since the majors haven't yet moved.

Though some will find the analysis disturbing, Bubley's predictions fit well with the past history of technology innovations in the global telecom industry. That is to say, innovations at first are brought to market by upstarts. At some point, it becomes crucial for the majors to adopt, and they do.

Bubley's analysis rests on a couple of simple assumptions. Since mobile carriers are migrating to all-IP networks, voice necessarily will be in the form of VoIP. Either that, or keep running a parallel TDM voice network. The coming IP networks also will operate in more bandwidth-efficient mode than a circuit-switched network, possibly in the range of 100 percent to 200 percent, he argues. Given demands for more data bandwidth, that will be compelling.

Then there's the attraction of IP-enabled features not possible with TDM. Also, mobile providers will want to collapse multiple networks and switching fabrics. Just as wireline networks are moving to IP Multimedia Subsystems, so wireless operators, who initially were the impetus for the creation of IMS, will do so. And that means IP-based voice.

Mobile Carriers Will Dominate VoIP

Who will massively introduce mobile VoIP? Mobile carriers themselves, says Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis president. In fact, some 250 million VoIP over mobile accounts will be in service by 2012, he argues. Conversely, dual-mode mobile devices that work both on wireless networks and Wi-Fi will have been eclipsed, he argues. As for independent providers of VoIP over third generation mobile networks, get ready for something of the same thing that has happened to Vonage, he essentially argues.

In other words, as the mobile carriers increasingly move to provider VoIP as an alternative to legacy Time Division Multiplex services, it will increasingly be tough for independents to make a go of it, much as competition from cable has squeezed Vonage and other independents in the U.S. market.

Independents don have a window of opportunity, though, since the majors haven't yet moved.

Though some will find the analysis disturbing, Bubley's predictions fit well with the past history of technology innovations in the global telecom industry. That is to say, innovations at first are brought to market by upstarts. At some point, it becomes crucial for the majors to adopt, and they do.

Bubley's analysis rests on a couple of simple assumptions. Since mobile carriers are migrating to all-IP networks, voice necessarily will be in the form of VoIP. Either that, or keep running a parallel TDM voice network. The coming IP networks also will operate in more bandwidth-efficient mode than a circuit-switched network, possibly in the range of 100 percent to 200 percent, he argues. Given demands for more data bandwidth, that will be compelling.

Then there's the attraction of IP-enabled features not possible with TDM. Also, mobile providers will want to collapse multiple networks and switching fabrics. Just as wireline networks are moving to IP Multimedia Subsystems, so wireless operators, who initially were the impetus for the creation of IMS, will do so. And that means IP-based voice.

Mobivox Web-Activated Calling

If you are a fan of Web-activated calling, and really prefer using your mobile, and want to use a service that actually is easier to use than Jajah (and Jajah is really easy), try Mobivox. Once you upload your directory numbers to Mobivox, you dial a local access number and then use voice prompts to pull up numbers in your directory and then Mobivox connects you.

If you are calling a number not in the directory, you get a prompt to enter the number on the keypad. The voice recognition seems to be quite good. There are no client downloads, even when using a mobile. You can use any phone at all. No need for a smart or feature phone. It is pleasant, easy to use, and the voice activation feature is almost fun (what about "dialing" or "clicking" phone numbers actually can said to be "fun"?).

The ability to use it without a download is really nice, as downloads are a huge barrier to adoption for most people, including me.

One Reason why Skype is Not Growing So Fast

Jaxtr allows free international calls using mobile phones. Jaxtr says its membership has doubled to 500,000 users in the past month, and is signing up new users on the Web at a rate of more than 12,000 a day.

And then there are Jajah, Jangl, Rebtel and GrandCentral as well.

"No download is required, and our direct numbers can be dialed from any type of mobile phone or even ordinary landline phones," Jaxtr CEO Executive Konstantin Guericke said, contrasting its Web-based approach to certain complexities of other services.

Ad-Supported Calling?

There can be no doubt about the direction of advertising. So if the trend is so clear, it is inevitable that ad-supported calling will get closer attention. Jajah has been trying this in Germany and Austria, for example. Jajah has partnerships with three large media companies, including Bild, Germany’s largest newspaper; ProSiebenSat1, which owns two major German TV stations, and NewsAT, an Austrian station. The partners will spend seven million euros to advertise Jajah’s Internet phone service.

They will point users to their own Web pages, which will have a co-branded Jajah service from which people can make calls. Essentially, the media companies will subsidize voice to build traffic on their sites. Deutsche Telekom, Germany’s large phone company, is part owner of Bild. So, in a sense, DT is kicking the tires to see what's there.

Jajah will keep 50 percent of any advertising revenue that it sells on the pages it shows people while they make calls. It will sell a banner and a skyscraper on each page.

Separately, Globe7 offers a softphone-based approach integrated with video streaming. The play seems to be that the content downloading creates an ad potential. Ad viewing then earns calling credits. The angle here is possibly more interesting than the old "listen to a short ad and then I will connect your call" approach. PC-based or Web-activated sites can show ads on a home page, without disrupting a call.