Massive Mobile VoIP Use by 2012

Who will massively introduce mobile VoIP? Mobile carriers themselves, says Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis president. In fact, some 250 million VoIP over mobile accounts will be in service by 2012, he argues. Analysts at Analysys seem to agree, arguing that wireless VoIP end users will outnumber wired VoIP users in the near future, as shown in the graphic.

Conversely, dual-mode mobile devices that work both on wireless networks and Wi-Fi will have been eclipsed, he argues. As for independent providers of VoIP over third generation mobile networks, get ready for something of the same thing that has happened to Vonage, he essentially argues.

In other words, as the mobile carriers increasingly move to provider VoIP as an alternative to legacy Time Division Multiplex services, it will increasingly be tough for independents to make a go of it, much as competition from cable has squeezed Vonage and other independents in the U.S. market.

Independents do have a window of opportunity, though, since the majors haven't yet moved.

Though some will find the analysis disturbing, Bubley's predictions fit well with the past history of technology innovations in the global telecom industry. That is to say, innovations at first are brought to market by upstarts. At some point, it becomes crucial for the majors to adopt, and they do.

Bubley's analysis rests on a couple of simple assumptions. Since mobile carriers are migrating to all-IP networks, voice necessarily will be in the form of VoIP. Either that, or keep running a parallel TDM voice network. The coming IP networks also will operate in more bandwidth-efficient mode than a circuit-switched network, possibly in the range of 100 percent to 200 percent, he argues. Given demands for more data bandwidth, that will be compelling.

Then there's the attraction of IP-enabled features not possible with TDM. Also, mobile providers will want to collapse multiple networks and switching fabrics. Just as wireline networks are moving to IP Multimedia Subsystems, so wireless operators, who initially were the impetus for the creation of IMS, will do so. And that means IP-based voice.

It's a Wireless World

Wireless revenue passed landline revenue internationally in 2006 and will be 59 percent greater by 2010, says the Telecommunications Industry Association. In the global markets, that means wireless customers outside the United States will increase by 975 million people by 2010, when the wireless total will reach 3.13 billion.

Wireless customers in the United States, meanwhile, will total 270 million in 2010, up from 216 million last year and 135 million just five years earlier. Wireless customers in the Asia/Pacific region totaled 963 million at the end of 2006 and are expected to total 1.58 billion by 2010, more than twice the number expected to be in Europe by then.

Wireless data revenue in the United States was nearly $13 billion last year and is expected to reach $44 billion in 2010, TIA notes.