Mobile Commerce Provides Lots of Value, and Not Just Transaction Fees

You might think that mobile payments are significant because they represent a potential shift of transaction fee streams from one set of providers to another.


That's true.  AITE Group, for example, in January 2010, it estimated that mobile payments would reach $214 billion in 2015, up from $16 billion in 2010, a 68 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2015. U.S. Mobile Payments


To the extent that all those payments will involve a transaction fee earned by some entity, you see the upside. But the value doesn't stop there. 

To give you some idea of what that can mean, eBay Chief Executive John Donahoe said otal payment volume transmitted by mobile devices through PayPal's system will be more than $3.5 billion in 2011. That helps PayPal.

But there are other ways value can be created. EBay, which owns PayPal, also uses smart phone apps like Red Laser, which lets shoppers scan bar codes to check prices online and at other retailers nearby. You might wonder what value that provides. For one thing, it allows eBay to do “comparison pricing” that retailers routinely conduct, but more efficiently, since eBay can rely on its users to do the work. PayPal mobile payments volume

Amazon.com is doing similar things, with a twist. On Dec. 10, 2011, Amazon will offer comparison shoppers a five percent discount, up to $5, on any item whose price is checked, in a retail store, using the Amazon “Price Check” app, and which is purchased on Amazon within 24 hours of the price check.

Though you might say this is a test of how much sales volume potentially can be shifted by offering such discounts, it also is a way for Amazon to gather quite a lot of infomation on retail pricing at brick and mortar locations selling the same merchandise that Amazon is selling.

MasterCard invests in mFoundry

MasterCard has made an investment in mFoundry, the developer of mobile banking, payment and commerce solutions that created the Starbucks mobile payment system. MasterCard also seems to be interested in mFoundry's relationships with hundreds of banking institutions that have created their own branded apps. 

Intel Capital, Fidelity Information Services and Motorola Mobility also are said to be part of the funding round for mFoundry. Previous investors include PayPal and NCR. The list of backers illustrates some of the dimensions of the developing mobile commerce ecosystem, which includes mobile handset, payment clearing network, retailer terminal, mobile wallet and mobile advertising and marketing functions as well.

For the past five years mFoundry has been developing mobile banking applications for banks that typically enable users to check their balances and conduct other financial services from their phone.



Going forward, MasterCard wants to work with mFoundry to enable those applications to make payments at the register using MasterCard’s near-field communication (NFC) technology called "PayPass." MasterCard invests in mFoundry

Mobile Wallet: Consumers Are Hesitant, For Good Reason

A new survey by Compete suggests most consumers are not yet inclined to use mobile wallet services, despite apparent awareness of around two thirds of respondents. 


About two thirds of people who use debit cards and credit cards say they aren’t planning to start anytime soon. Just seven percent of banking consumers indicated that they would be very or extremely likely to start using their phone or tablet to make a bill payment. 


About five percent of banking consumers said they would be likely to start using their mobile device to make a deposit. Most also say they aren’t likely to start using their mobile device to make a point-of-sale purchase.


None of that should be surprising. Consumers need a clear value proposition, and it still isn't clear that has been established. Mobile Wallet: Consumers Are Hesitant Few wallet services have been able to fully develop the features they believe will clearly add significant value for consumers, and few retailers are able to support those features, either. 


Beyond that, few consumers actually are able to use near field communications, for example, since their current devices are not equipped to do so. 

Although current use and intended adoption rates for mobile services are low, once consumers adopt mobile financial or money services and start using their phone as a mobile wallet, they use the services frequently, the survey also shows. Some 16 percent of consumers using "Mobile tap and pay" do so daily and another 36 percent use it weekly. A full 87 percent of consumers using mobile couponing do so at least once a month.


There is one important element to keep in mind for any brand-new service such as mobile wallets, namely that it usually is quite impossible for end users to understand or to quantify their possible use of a product they have not yet experienced. 


Apple, for example, has not had a history of conducting market research about any of its new products, on the theory that consumers cannot really describe their possible use of a product they never have seen.

Richard Branson invests in Square

Richard Branson has invested in Square, the mobile payments service that uses a free dongle to turn a smart phone into a payment processing terminal.

Mobile payments forecast

Richard Branson invests in Square

Starbucks Canada Gets Mobile Payments

The official iPhone application from Starbucks now is available for Starbucks customers in Canada. In the U.S. market, Starbucks has gotten about 20 million transactions in less than a year.


Most contenders in the mobile payments or mobile wallet business are hoping to create large-scale platforms used by lots of retailers. Starbucks. on the other hand, has reasons of its own for creating a proprietary system that already has processed more than 20 million mobile payment transactions.


The approach shows one way even "targeted" mobile payment applications and systems can add business value. For starters, the Starbucks approach does not require inventing anything new. It uses existing tools to quickly reach critical mass.



mobile payments forecast


Starbucks also has clear business drivers, mostly related to enhancing loyalty.


Since each mobile payment account is tied to a Starbucks card, Starbucks increases the value and usage of its prepaid cards.

Starbucks Canada gets mobile payments

Africa leads in mobile money deployment as users hit over 40 million | Mobile Money Africa

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) says Africa is leading the trend with 51 mobile money systems in place, and as many as 37 of the deployments being in least developed countries (LDCs). Africa leads in mobile money

According to data from the GSM Association, some 109 such deployments had been implemented as of April 2011, spanning all developing regions. Only 11 of these are in developed countries, for perhaps logical reasons. 


Mobile payments systems that allow people to use their mobiles as a payment mechanism make the most sense in regions where banking and payments infrastructure is relatively undeveloped.

Africa is leading the trend with 51 mobile money systems in place, and as many as 37 of the deployments are in least developed countries, says the UNCTAD report.

Three broad categories of services now are coming to market. Money transfer services (domestic and/or international) are one type of application.

Payment services (for airtime top-ups, bills, salaries, and other goods and services) are a second type of application.

Use of mobiles to support financial services (savings, credit, insurance) are the third major type of application. Domestic money transfers, airtime and bill payments are the three most common services currently offered. You can view the report here. 

Mobile Payments Business is Starting Over, Says Schropfer

The mobile payments business is starting over, says David W. Schropfer, a partner at Luciano Group. Ironically, as both Isis and the Google Wallet systems now essentially disclaim any interest in revenue from the transaction process, seeking instead to build new businesses based on advertising and loyalty, the “wallet” part of the mobile commerce business now seems to have “substantially slowed mobile commerce development in the rest of the developed world.”

To a large, though not complete extent, “payments” now are taking a back seat to “wallets,” which probably means we are headed for a period where “mobile commerce” becomes the headline phrase, not necessarily “mobile payments.”

The new direction, at least for many significant players, seems to be a recognition that “significant revenue is available from the advertising, retention and rewards programs,” says Schropfer. That’s the upside.

The other recognition is that the payments ecosystem cannot easily afford to support many new “mouths to feed” in the revenue chain. Complicated ecosystem That being the case, the incumbent participants have every incentive to use their considerable resources to thwart entry by a new category of participants, says Schropfer.

Make no mistake, there still remains  a potential disruption here. But it is a disruption of the broader commerce process, not the “payments” process in a narrow sense.

One might also argue that the “commerce” angle, aiming to reinvent the shopping experience, almost automatically answers the question of “what’s in it for retailers” in a way that “payments” systems have not. Merchants care about loyalty, customer retention and promoting customer traffic. The “Wallet” approach addresses all three of those concerns, in addition to providing value for consumers.

Loyalty programs and systems generally refer to programs intended to bring a consumer into a specific merchant with incentives such as coupons, discounts, and other incentives, says Schropfer. The advantages for consumers and merchants therefore are pretty clear.

“Remarkably, there are over 2.1 billion loyalty and rewards programs currently
issued to customers in the United States,” Schropfer says. “With only 300 million total
population, this equates to almost seven accounts for every individual in the United States.”

Just as important, retailers are willing to spend money to acquire new customers. “In a study by international consultancy Deloitte, the company estimated that merchants  are willing to pay between seven percent and nine percent of a transaction amount to acquire a new sale,” Schropfer says. 

That’s important because it suggests where a wallet revenue model lies: getting paid by a merchant to deliver a customer.

“Starting over” is a bold statement. But it is hard to deny that, with some exceptions, much of the activity in what used to be the “mobile payments” business now has shifted in the direction of “mobile wallet,” with a revenue model based on loyalty, offers, advertising, marketing, promotion and other elements of the commerce system.

One might argue that there are some areas, such as enabling use of a smart phone as a credit card reader, or integration of PayPal as a retail payments method, various forms of social and virtual currency or overseas or person-to-person remittances continue to be important for some segments of the “payments” business. 

Still, for the moment, “wallet” seems to have emerged as the more-important aspect of change in the mobile commerce arena, eclipsing “payments” for the moment, even though “wallet” value is sometimes harder to describe. “Starting over” is an important phrase, whether one agrees or not.

Half of Web Sales Will Use Mobile, Social Apps by 2015

By 2015, companies will generate 50 percent of Web sales from their social presence and mobile applications, according to Gartner.

All of that points up the many reasons mobile ecosystem participants are ramping up mobile commerce, mobile advertising, mobile payments and mobile wallet initiatives.

In many instances, the difference between a "Web" sale and a retail sale will blur, as well, many would argue. In other cases, a retail sale will be prompted or driven by mobile promotions as well, use a mobile loyalty or payment mechanism.

Vendors in the e-commerce market will begin to offer new context-aware, mobile-based application capabilities that can be accessed either from a browser or installed as an application on a phone.

"E-commerce organizations will need to scale up their operations to handle the increased visitation loads resulting from customers not having to wait until they are in front of a PC to obtain answers to questions or place orders," said Gene Alvarez, research vice president at Gartner. "In time, e-commerce vendors will begin to offer context-aware mobile-shopping solutions as part of their overall Web sales offerings."

50 Percent of Web Sales from Social Presence, Mobile Apps

Marketing is Business Driver for Mobile Wallets

Possibly the most meaningful impact that Google Wallet will have is on the advertising and marketing communities. Google offers will be Google’s application for deals, coupons, and offers that will inform you of promotions based on your location.

In that sense, the business case for mobile wallet apps will be location based advertising, the ability to view and compare the deals of local vendors, and coupons that do not have to be cut out of magazines or newspapers.

Local-targeted advertising will sound like Living Social and Groupon, and that's essentially correct.

Google shows mobile "payment" is about marketing

Mobile Payments Will Take 10 Years to Reach 50% of U.S. Households

Optimists might think mobile payments will be a significant business in as little as two to four years. 

Some might argue from history that it will take a decade or so for mobile payments to be adopted by a significant number of users. By "significant" we might say half of households using mobile payments. KPMG survey


History suggests why that might be so. After 20 years, the percentage of U.S. households using automatic bill paying is still only about 50 percent. Likewise, after 20 years, use of debit cards by U.S. households is only about 50 percent. 


It took about a decade for use of automated teller machines to reach usage by about half of U.S. households. 


The takeaway is that payments innovation tends to be a rather deliberate process, with adoption processes that take between 10 years to 20 years to reach 50 percent of consumer households.

Why Mobile Payments Might Still Be A Few Years Away

VeriFone CEO on Mobile Payments

Douglas Bergeron, chief executive officer of VeriFone Systems, talks about the company's mobile payment technology and expansion plans.



VeriFone CEO on Mobile Payments

"Unintended Consequences" of Financial Reform Laws

Bank of America Corp. plans to charge its customers a $5 monthly fee for making debit-card purchases starting early in 2012, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The fee will apply to customers with various checking accounts during any month they use their debit card to make a purchase. The fee will not apply to customers who do not use their debit card to make a purchase or who only use it to make ATM transactions. The fee also will not apply to customers in certain premium accounts.

Bank of America is trying to cushion revenue losses it expects to incur from new caps on the fees merchants pay when a customer uses a debit card at their stores. In June, the Federal Reserve Board finalized rules capping such fees at 24 cents per transaction, compared with a current average of 44 cents.

Other banks have introduced or are testing new fees in response to the debit-fee caps, which stem from a provision known as the Durbin amendment in last year's Dodd-Frank financial regulation overhaul legislation.

The moves illustrate the unintended consequences that tend to develop from "well meaning" regulation. The Durbin amendment ostensibly was an attempt to "protect" consumers and retailers from "high transaction fees." But the rules also represent an immediate $6.6 billion reduction in bank revenue.

So what will the banks do? Raise other fees to recoup the losses. Retailers might still be happy to pay the lower transaction fees. But the shortfall will be made up directly by customers.

BofA to Charge Debit-Card Fee - WSJ.com (subscription required)

Google Wallet Launches

Right now, Google Wallet only works with Citi-Mastercards and the Google Prepaid Card. Visa and Google announced a worldwide agreement to support the Visa payWave app, but it will still be up to the financial institutions and banks to add support.



Google Wallet

Google Wallet Launching September 19, 2011

Google Wallet, Google's mobile payment and daily deals service, will officially launch Sept. 19, 2011, TechCrunch says. Google Wallet lets you load your credit cards to its app and tap your NFC-enabled phone to a special reader to make purchases.

It also ties in Google Offers, Google's semi-new Groupon clone. That means whenever you buy a Google Offer from a local vendor, Google Wallet automatically factors in your discount when you make the purchase.

Google Wallet Launching September 19

PayPal to Introduce Mobile Payments, Wallet, Promotion Platform

PayPal is introducing a new platform for retailers that includes mobile payment, mobile wallet, advertising and offer functions.

This is a big deal for PayPal and for mobile payments and mobile wallet users and providers.

The PayPal Blog

Virtual currencies and social network payments

If you are a bit confused about the ramifications of mobile payments, so is just about everybody else. The common sense notion is that "mobile payments" is principally about using a mobile phone, in some way, to buy things, in scenarios where cash, a credit card, a debit card or perhaps a check typically is used instead.

At least part of what some of us might say is growing confusion about mobile payments is that "payments" are part of the "buying," "shopping" or "commerce" activity, and there now are growing ways to embed "promotion," "coupons," "offers," "daily deals" and "loyalty" into a shopping experience. You hear the term "mobile wallet," for example, which is how some of these related processes might be integrated and handled in the future.

To complicate matters further, shopping for "virtual goods," or "content" goods, as well as real world goods, are seen as essential parts of the mobile payments business. In other words, you might use your mobile to checkout from a retail location, buy a song or video, as well as purchase virtual goods for use in a game that is played on a mobile.

Then consider a growing interest in the ability not only to buy virtual goods with real money, but then to export virtual money to other applications or retailers, in some cases as another version of virtual currency, but possibly even as "money" in the classic sense.

You can go into a Wal-Mart right now and pay cash (or check) for a Facebook payment card, to be used in virtual gaming with such companies as Zynga. That doesn't seem to trouble regulators. But many believe there are advantages to allowing points, credits or tokens to be accumulated and then redeemed back into some form of actual real world currency. And that means there now are banking and other regulations that come into play.

Virtual currencies and social network payments

Rogers Communications Seeks Bank Status

Rogers Communications has applied to become a bank under the Canadian federal Bank Act. If approved, the proposed "Rogers Bank" will focus mainly on credit, payment and charge card services. In one sense, the move is similar to any other large retail brand creating a branded charge card.

In other ways the move is more significant. Large tier-one service providers might start to find they cannot gain significant revenue growth without moving into adjacent businesses of some size and scope, already dominated by other providers. To be sure, Rogers is proceeding carefully.

"We have no plans to become a full-service deposit-taking financial institution," Rogers Public Affairs Manager Carly Suppa said. "The license, if granted, would give us the flexibility to pursue a niche credit card opportunity to our customers should this make sense at a future date."

In other words, Rogers doesn't want to become a full-fledged retail bank. But becoming a credit card issuer does set Rogers up for a smooth transition to becoming a mobile payments provider in the future.
Credit cards present a distinct opportunity for Rogers to expand its reach, as the media, cable and wireless giant also owns the Toronto Blue Jays and has direct relationships with millions of customers, including many who pay bills using credit or direct-deposit accounts. So there is an incremental opportunity to capture some of the current transaction revenue, at the very least.

Beyond that, analysts say the company can build a broader card business by leveraging those relationships to market its brand of cards, especially by reaching out to customers who have good credit standing in its database. That would create a new revenue stream for the broader number of retail transactions for which its customers use credit cards. Rogers to become a bank

The move by Rogers is highly significant, as it illustrates an important point about where large tier-one providers must look for revenue growth. For an organization such as Rogers, which might book $12 billion in 2011 revenue, even interesting new lines of business that produce scores of millions to hundreds of millions worth of new revenue are too small to "move the needle" overall.

The problem is even worse for organizations such as AT&T or Verizon that book $30 billion to $40 billion a year in revenue. Simply put, there are few realistic new lines of business large enough to matter. That is why you hear so much about machine-to-machine communications, mobile advertising, mobile banking and enterprise-oriented cloud services. Each of those businesses could, in principle, produce $1 billion a year in incremental revenue for any single contestant in a national market.

Keep in mind the scale requirements. A business has to be big enough to produce $1 billion in incremental revenue for each contestant that wishes to compete in the business. By definition, any new line of business must be capable of generating global revenue in the scores of billions of dollars.

To repeat, Rogers will become a bank. It will do so because even "mobile payments" might not produce enough incremental revenue to be interesting. Instead, Rogers will have to explore ways to earn incremental revenue in a range of traditional banking services that match its capabilities in mobile services.

There are some obvious implications. Isis, the joint venture between AT&T, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA, has shifted from a "mobile payments" to a "mobile wallet" focus. The implication is that Isis has decided it does not have time nor money to challenge Visa and MasterCard directly, which it was its original plan.

Even though that is an arguably wise move, the point remains that even a mobile wallet model might not produce revenue large enough to matter. That is not to say a wallet effort could not do so, but that it would have to create a huge advertising ecosystem.

At some point, even Isis might have to consider whether it must become a bank, or that its partners separately might have to become banks. That would still leave them as partners with Visa and MasterCard. But it would not allow Isis to completely avoid all conflict with banks.

Many service providers outside the United States probably are "running the numbers" and coming to similar conclusions.

Rogers applies to become a bank

Will Apple be King of Payments?

"Apple has revolutionized how we consume music, mobile applications, and media, in general. I fully expect them to revolutionize the retail experience, too," says Michael Koploy, Software Advice ERP market analyst.

"If Apple can revolutionize the point of sale, consumers will use their iPhone for retail checkout." That is the trick, isn't it?

"In the process, I think they will come to own a huge chunk of the payments industry," says Koploy. "We think Apple has a chance to own the later opportunity by acting as a merchant services provider."

"Consumers won’t care who’s processing the transaction or earning fees," he argues. It's true that consumers won't care. But retailers will care, as well the existing issuers of credit cards and debit cards, as well as the card associations, especially Visa and MasterCard.

From the outside, it always seems to be logical that a new provider, offering a new experience, ought to be able to change the payments experience. Starbucks perhaps is the best current example of that, in a retail setting.

But consumer desire, though necessary, is not sufficient to drive a change, as it is the retailers who also have to decide such a change in technology and experience benefits them as well. In the past, modifications of the point of service terminals have run as much as $200 per terminal, a capital investment retailers would rather not make.

The other issue is whether any new payment scheme can offer lower transaction costs for retailers. Apple might hope to do so, but has to be aware that the issuing banks and payment networks are not going to stand idly by and allow Apple to erode current industry revenues.

Apple has to be considered one of the more fearsome potential disruptors. But disruption in the payments industry is far harder than it typically appears.

Some of us might guess that Apple could play a bigger role not in the actual payments revenue stream, but as a provider of new value to ecosystem participants. In other words, Apple's biggest success could come not as a replacement for current methods, but as a partner to most of the ecosystem, including end users, retailers, banks and settlement networks.

Why Apple is Poised to Become the Future King of Payments

Isis Shifts Strategy: What Happens Next?

If there is any single issue that will drive any retailer away from a retail payments system it is higher cost per transaction. Forcing a retailer to spend $200 or so per payment terminal also is a huge barrier to adoption. Blocking a merchant’s ability to use a form of payment such as a branded credit card also is a disincentive, particularly since the merchant’s own branded vehicles potentially can provide more information about the customer, and the customer’s preferences, than any third party form of payment.

It appears Isis has stumbled with retailers because its proposed payment system provides all three barriers, says Richard Crone, Crone Consulting principal and payments consultant.

And Crone agrees that, as tough as it would have been to overcome those obstacles, any other revenue model Isis now might adopt could fight Isis facing both well-funded giants such as Google, Apple, PayPal and Amazon, or any number of startups, sufficiently well funded to pose a significant challenge to “near field communications” as the communication method for any number of payment-related systems and applications.

In fact, Crone believes a number of carrier-independent approaches from well-funded start-ups not requiring NFC “could make NFC obsolete.”

“Maybe you don’t need the NFC approach,” says Crone. “There are 16 different ways the communications function can be handled.”

Starbucks, for example, represents the “most successful new payment method, ever,” Crone says. Starbucks reached one million mobile payments  processed in 30 days. “Nobody else ever has received those kind of numbers in that short a period of time.” And all Starbucks did was build on the existing prepaid Starbucks card and 2D barcodes. Starbucks has signed up more than three million of their customers for the program, and they likely include some of the best customers Starbucks has.

Customer contact  is the real advantage, he argues. When a merchant accepts payment from a standard credit or debit card, the data the merchant can capture is slim. The Starbucks approach provides a clear contrast.

When a customer registers for the Starbucks mobile payment service, the customer states their preferences and supplies contact information. As a result, Starbucks can communicate with their customers, before and after any transaction.

Starbucks also enjoys lower transaction costs, as it is prepaid system where customers load credits into their accounts ahead of time.

It might not be incorrect, in essence, to argue that, if merchants were starting today with a payment technology system, they wouldn’t even buy point of sale terminals. They’d simply leverage the technology the customers pay for, including using the customer’s communication services, and process directly from a smart phone, Crone says.

Retailers need a payment strategy, and a a mobile strategy, that provides incentives for customers to use the forms of payment that build loyalty, make customers contactable and provide lower costs. That doesn’t mean abandoning a “portfolio” approach. After all, people still will want the freedom to pay using cash, credit card, debit card, check or gift card. But among those options, retailers benefit when they can use the payment system to build loyalty, knowledge of their customer preferences and gain the ability to add marketing services on top. When possible, transaction costs might also be lower taking that approach.

That doesn’t mean NFC won’t find applications, or that Isis cannot ensure itself some role in the mobile payments business. NFC requires a secure element that carriers want embedded in the subscriber information module. Carriers control the SIM, so they would still be gatekeepers when NFC is used.

“So even if they open up to card associations, they control the loading of credentials,” says Crone. But various players in the ecosystem will contest the location of that loadable data, arguing that it should not be in the SIM, but elsewhere in the device. Device manufacturers, for example, would prefer that approach, as it makes their devices more valuable.

With Isis apparently withdrawing from an effort to compete directly with Visa and MasterCard, it will obviously have to find some other role. But competitors who do not necessarily want to be limited by using NFC, the SIM or getting the carrier’s permission now will have new incentives to push their rival systems in the marketplace.

In a way, Isis had been casting a bit of a shadow over rival approaches. Now, it appears we are headed for a period of wider experimentation, with many participants looking at ways to create payment systems providing higher marketing value, advertising or promotion platforms or customer niches, such as mobile merchants, smaller merchants or merchants primarily seeking loyalty program advantages.

Nor is it entirely clear that the “best” strategy is the “most ubiquitous, most widely used” approach. Large retailers might well conclude that they are best served by their own branded programs, using forms of payment limited to their own establishments and venues. They still will accept all the other popular forms of payment, so they give up nothing to gain the advantages of approaches such as that taken by Starbucks, which is to create a program usable only at Starbucks.

With the shade apparently removed, lots of smaller plants will get sunlight.

Isis Decides Not to Challenge Visa, MasterCard

In a major shift, Isis, the mobile payments venture headed by AT&T, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA, which originally intended to compete with card issuers, now appears to have abandoned that tack, opting instead for a scaled-back effort that essentially amounts to data mining and revenues that might be built on sharing access to such data in some way.

The shift means an end to the "clash of giants" theme that had AT&T and Verizon challenging Visa and MasterCard directly as a payment processor. What new "story" might emerge remains unclear, for the moment, as Isis now will embark on a search for a new narrative.

Some will note that the shift in strategy solves one problem, but creates others. Isis no longer has to spend the time and capital to create a new retail payments brand, a prospect many had pointed out would be time-consuming and expensive. But the new model also must define and then create a viable new revenue model of some size and scope.

There are huge new uncertainties. Despite the obstacles, the original plan had the advantage of a clearly-defined source of revenue, primarily based on per-transaction fees. Now Isis has to search for both a sustainable role and viable revenue streams to match.

It still is possible that Visa and MasterCard might agree to share some part of transaction revenue with Isis, in exchange for support Isis might provide, but that remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen how significant a revenue stream that could provide.

The change also throws into question the future roles for original partners Barclays Bank and Discover Financial Services. Under the original plan, which would have required Isis to create its own functional equivalent of the branded credit or debit card, Barclays would have been an obvious brand to use. Likewise, Discover Financial would have provided the payments clearinghouse functions.

Under the new plan, it isn't clear what role Barclays or Discover Financial might play. The Wall Street Journal reports that Isis concluded that creating a new branded payment network would take too long, given the level of competition in the market. The Journal also reports that retailers were not keen on adding yet one more provider.

Perhaps intriguingly, the shift of Isis strategy means other players in the ecosystem, especially the many smaller providers plumbing some specific roles within the broader "payments" ecosystem, gain attention.

If Isis has to look for new roles and revenue streams, the many smaller providers of various solutions will become more valuable, at least potentially, if they can provide distinct features and revenue streams, either for the actual payments function, the venues where payment is required or helpful, or in related businesses related in some logical way to people shopping.

Isis isn't planning to launch its first payments trial until 2012, as a provider of mobile payment for transit services in Salt Lake City. What isn't so clear now is how relevant that experiment will be for Isis, long term. It still remains possible that Isis will get some small share of transaction revenue, but some will argue that never will be enough to justify Isis as a business proposition.

Lots of thinking now likely is going into ways mobile data and back office capabilities, such as billing, location and other details about devices, operating systems and so forth might be exposed to third parties. But that sort of thinking has been going on for years, and is not new.

Perhaps a key challenge for Isis now is to avoid exchanging one set of difficult competitors with another set of equally-talented competitors. And Isis will face plenty of those.

Wireless Carriers Scrap Plans for Their Own Mobile-Payment Network, Look to Big Credit Card Companies - WSJ.com