Is Mobile Commerce at a Tipping Point?

Mobile commerce is in a hype cycle, with high expectations for growth. The issue is whether it is at a tipping point, the point of critical mass where an adoption inflection point occurs, and "overnight," it seems, a new trend gets established. 

You should expect to hear lots of speculation about mobile commerce, mobile payments or mobile wallet efforts reaching a critical mass or tipping point in 2012, as it is the time of year for attention-grabbing predictions. What is a tipping point?

You should remain circumspect. Something big is coming. But it still is "coming," it is not going to be "here" in 2012. 

The 2011 KPMG Mobile Payments Outlook, based on a survey of nearly 1,000 executives primarily in the financial services, technology, telecommunications, and retail industries globally found that 83 percent of the respondents believe that mobile payments will be mainstream within four years (by 2015).

In fact, 46 percent believe mobile payments will be mainstream within two years.

But there is room to disagree about the accuracy of those projections. One might argue that forecasts of this sort are notoriously unreliable, with respondents overestimating near term prospects.

Analysts at Gartner, for example, use a model of how expectations for significant new technologies running in a predictable cycle. What the cycle suggests is that expectations nearly always (always, according to the model) run ahead of marketplace acceptance.

What the Gartner hype cycle suggests is that expectations for mobile payments using near field communications are at a point where we can expect five to 10 years to elapse until NFC actually begins to make serious inroads as an adopted mainstream technology. The emphasis probably is important to note: “begins.”

But KPMG analysts take the opposite view, arguing that respondents are too pessimistic. “We believe that exploding smart phone growth and myriad opportunities will grow mobile payments at a much faster rate than our respondents anticipate,” said Gary Matuszak, KPMG Global Chair of the Technology, Communication and Entertainment practice.

“While KPMG believes that these forms of mobile payment will all gain some traction, our view is that mobile wallet is one of the most exciting and promising payment opportunities,” analysts say.

Mobile wallet provides the momentum to move beyond payments to participate in the entire chain of mobile commerce, from consideration and brand awareness to purchase after-sales loyalty and care,” said Tudor Aw, Technology Sector Head, KPMG Europe.
Banks, mobile service providers have key roles in mobile payment

If Gartner analysts are right about the near field communications "hype cycle," we should soon see some public "disillusionment" expressed about near term prospects for NFC. The reason is that Gartner now sees NFC at the "top" of its hype cycle, the point at which overly-optimistic projections face the reality of an extended period of development, before something "useful" actually emerges.

Internet TV, NFC payment and private cloud computing all are at what Garner calls the "Peak of Inflated Expectations," which is always followed by a period where the hype is viewed as outrunning the actual market. That suggests NFC soon will enter a phase where expectations are more measured.

In fact, Gartner now expects it will take five to 10 years before NFC is in widespread and mainstream use. Gartner's latest expectation likewise is that cloud computing and machine-to-machine applications will not be mainstream for another five to 10 years as well. Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle

Consider some of the issues that will have to be settled before mobile commerce can reach a tipping point. First, the communication methods need to settle, whether NFC or other approaches are considered. 

Carrier billing could play a crucial role in how consumers start easing into the idea of mobile commerce, but mobile service providers will have to revise traditional pricing, as a payment scheme costing more than a credit card or debit card charge will not work, especially for small ticket purchases, where carrier billing seems most germane. 

Many of us believe "daily deals" are crucial, as a key source of new value for mobile wallet services that answer the question of "what's in it for me?" for both consumers and retailers. Right now, most mobile payment systems cannot provide simple answers for retailers and consumers.

Then there are all the privacy issues related to personalization and location-based targeting, which are certainly going to grow in importance.  Top 7 Mobile Commerce Trends in 2011:

MasterCard invests in mFoundry

MasterCard has made an investment in mFoundry, the developer of mobile banking, payment and commerce solutions that created the Starbucks mobile payment system. MasterCard also seems to be interested in mFoundry's relationships with hundreds of banking institutions that have created their own branded apps. 

Intel Capital, Fidelity Information Services and Motorola Mobility also are said to be part of the funding round for mFoundry. Previous investors include PayPal and NCR. The list of backers illustrates some of the dimensions of the developing mobile commerce ecosystem, which includes mobile handset, payment clearing network, retailer terminal, mobile wallet and mobile advertising and marketing functions as well.

For the past five years mFoundry has been developing mobile banking applications for banks that typically enable users to check their balances and conduct other financial services from their phone.



Going forward, MasterCard wants to work with mFoundry to enable those applications to make payments at the register using MasterCard’s near-field communication (NFC) technology called "PayPass." MasterCard invests in mFoundry

Will Mobile Commerce Will Be Driven by Better Experience and Increased Control?

Despite the fact that mobile commerce will include payment and transaction mechanisms, mobile commerce, and a good deal of retail commerce, will not be primarily about the change in payment mechanism, argue analysts at mobileYouth.

In fact, control and access to information will be more important for users, mobileYouth predicts. Payments may be important for the generation without credit cards but it’s their fear of losing control, and avoiding surprises, that will drive adoption.

Mobile commerce also will be about sharing and reclaiming the social experience, mobileYouth predicts. Mobile commerce is not just about making the purchase more informed, or easier, but making it more social.

Providers need to think less about the payment and more about the shared experiences and activities made possible by mobile payment systems. In other words, replicating the value of "hanging out together at malls" is more important than providing a new way to pay for things.

Mobile commerce: information and experience

Era of E-Commerce is Over

Forrester Research e-commerce forecast

John Donahoe, CEO of eBay, has said that the concept of e-commerce is dead and buried, since consumers really don’t care about where they buy, so long as they get the cheapest price. You can thank increasing use of mobile technology for that change.

Now consumers are walking into retail stores, and using their phones to identify better prices for goods they like, and will use either online or offline purchasing to get the price they want.


“Over the last 12-18 months we at eBay have changed our view on e-commerce,” he explained. “We’re now seeing a profound change in how consumers are behaving, and we’re going to see more changes in the next three years than we’re seen in the previous 20 in terms of shopping and payments." 

NFC handset forecast

"Mobile devices are blurring the lines between online and offline at a rate no one would have predicted.” eBay boss declares era of e-commerce is over

As for eBay’s strategy, Donahoe said the company is presenting itself as a retailer-agnostic platform. Price comparison applications on the site will show a broad range of suppliers, all displayed on a level playing field with the competition. eBay will simply process the sale.

Mobile Content in the Shopping Process

Brands now have to create and distribute content available "for free" when and where customers need it on social media platforms. The other corollary is that brands have to avoid  "pushing" promotional information when consumers are looking for answers.


While marketers like to use every media channel to deliver marketing promotions, you must understand consumers' shopping-related needs have evolved.

They now want and access information before, during, and after they make a purchase. 


With U.S. smartphone usage at 40 percent, it's critical to offer customers the information they want and need wherever they are in the purchase cycle and physically (since they may be in your store or your competitor's).

Social Media and Shopping

Mobile "Payment" is Shifting to "Wallet"

Bloomberg technology writer Rich Jaroslovsky has been testing the new Google Wallet, and at least for the moment thinks mobile payment and wallets are less about improvements in the payments process, and lots more about the marketing and promotion advantages.

"This is really the secret sauce in mobile payments, because while, yeah, it is kind of a little bit more convenient, that isn't really what's going to get people to use it," he says. "What's going to get people to use it is the possibility that they can save money." Mobile payment more marketing than "payment"


The mobile payments business is starting over, says David W. Schropfer, a partner at Luciano Group. Ironically, as both Isis and the Google Wallet systems now essentially disclaim any interest in revenue from the transaction process, seeking instead to build new businesses based on advertising and loyalty, the “wallet” part of the mobile commerce business now seems to have “substantially slowed mobile commerce development in the rest of the developed world.”
To a large, though not complete extent, “payments” now are taking a back seat to “wallets,” which probably means we are headed for a period where “mobile commerce” becomes the headline phrase, not necessarily “mobile payments.” Mobile payments starting over 

Mobile Payments Business is Starting Over, Says Schropfer

The mobile payments business is starting over, says David W. Schropfer, a partner at Luciano Group. Ironically, as both Isis and the Google Wallet systems now essentially disclaim any interest in revenue from the transaction process, seeking instead to build new businesses based on advertising and loyalty, the “wallet” part of the mobile commerce business now seems to have “substantially slowed mobile commerce development in the rest of the developed world.”

To a large, though not complete extent, “payments” now are taking a back seat to “wallets,” which probably means we are headed for a period where “mobile commerce” becomes the headline phrase, not necessarily “mobile payments.”

The new direction, at least for many significant players, seems to be a recognition that “significant revenue is available from the advertising, retention and rewards programs,” says Schropfer. That’s the upside.

The other recognition is that the payments ecosystem cannot easily afford to support many new “mouths to feed” in the revenue chain. Complicated ecosystem That being the case, the incumbent participants have every incentive to use their considerable resources to thwart entry by a new category of participants, says Schropfer.

Make no mistake, there still remains  a potential disruption here. But it is a disruption of the broader commerce process, not the “payments” process in a narrow sense.

One might also argue that the “commerce” angle, aiming to reinvent the shopping experience, almost automatically answers the question of “what’s in it for retailers” in a way that “payments” systems have not. Merchants care about loyalty, customer retention and promoting customer traffic. The “Wallet” approach addresses all three of those concerns, in addition to providing value for consumers.

Loyalty programs and systems generally refer to programs intended to bring a consumer into a specific merchant with incentives such as coupons, discounts, and other incentives, says Schropfer. The advantages for consumers and merchants therefore are pretty clear.

“Remarkably, there are over 2.1 billion loyalty and rewards programs currently
issued to customers in the United States,” Schropfer says. “With only 300 million total
population, this equates to almost seven accounts for every individual in the United States.”

Just as important, retailers are willing to spend money to acquire new customers. “In a study by international consultancy Deloitte, the company estimated that merchants  are willing to pay between seven percent and nine percent of a transaction amount to acquire a new sale,” Schropfer says. 

That’s important because it suggests where a wallet revenue model lies: getting paid by a merchant to deliver a customer.

“Starting over” is a bold statement. But it is hard to deny that, with some exceptions, much of the activity in what used to be the “mobile payments” business now has shifted in the direction of “mobile wallet,” with a revenue model based on loyalty, offers, advertising, marketing, promotion and other elements of the commerce system.

One might argue that there are some areas, such as enabling use of a smart phone as a credit card reader, or integration of PayPal as a retail payments method, various forms of social and virtual currency or overseas or person-to-person remittances continue to be important for some segments of the “payments” business. 

Still, for the moment, “wallet” seems to have emerged as the more-important aspect of change in the mobile commerce arena, eclipsing “payments” for the moment, even though “wallet” value is sometimes harder to describe. “Starting over” is an important phrase, whether one agrees or not.

Retailers Still Not Convinced About Mobile Paymentss

Retailers are an essential partner for developing mobile payments and mobile wallet services, but retailers understandably are leery of supporting the new services until the value is made clearer.


While it is clear that end users, mobile service providers, processing networks, mobile device manufacturers, marketing and advertising networks could benefit, it still is generally unclear what the quantifiable benefits are for retailers, who face a need to invest significantly in payment terminal systems.


That suggests a major conclusion about what it will take to drive retailer interest. It long has been the case that if consumers massively indicate a preference for specific payment modes, that retailers will embrace those preferences to avoid losing business to other outlets. So if the direct value proposition for retailers remains murky, then the ecosystem will have to entice large numbers of consumers to prefer and then demand support for the new features.

In the mid-2000s, Visa, MasterCard and American Express all introduced contactless payment cards that consumers could tap against a payment terminal to complete a transaction. Years later, the number of merchant locations that accept such transactions number 140,000 out of an estimated 11 million overall locations.


Today, the card brands are working toward putting tap-and-pay capabilities, along with offers and coupons, into smartphones. But retailers would face expensive upgrades to their payment systems without assurances sales will follow. A compatible payment terminal might cost between $400 and $500, experts say.

Retailers remain hesitant to move on mobile payments

Is PayPal Card Friend or Foe?

Value in mobile ecosystem

In a complicated ecosystem such as retail payments, no legacy contestant can be completely sure that other new participants in the broader ecosystem are complementary or disruptive.

PayPal, already a payment system for e-commerce transactions, has made no secret lately of its ambitions to move into the world of brick-and-mortar commerce. 


And PayPal might worry card issuers more than Google for a couple of reasons. First, Google clearly wants to build a business around advertising. PayPal wants to grow a transaction fee business, even as it works with traditional card issuers. 


Traditional payments typically involve a merchant, acquirer, issuer, and a consumer in the visible parts of the business. But essential roles also are played by the payment network provider as well. 


The roles of merchants and consumers are obvious. "Acquirers" are responsible for aggregating merchants  and enabling merchants to process payments. 


"Issuers" create payment devices for consumers to use (credit and debit cards, for example) and process the transfer of funds from consumer accounts to merchants. 


In the case of credit and debit cards and other electronic forms of payment, a payment network provider, such as Visa or MasterCard, resides between acquirers and issuers to facilitate the transfer of information and funds. 


The mobile payments business adds other potential participants as well, such as handset suppliers, mobile service providers and application providers that create "wallet" systems. That also means other functions such as daily deals services, loyalty program services, local advertising and other functions likely will be part of the ecosystem as well. 


You might argue that PayPal, up this point, has acted as a payment network of sorts, even though it works with existing clearing networks and card issuers. What does not seem completely clear is what it might mean now that PayPal has decided its "wallet" functions will take the form of a plastic card.  

The PayPal Card is a magnetic-striped plastic card that will become available to its base of 100 million active users some time in the first half of 2012.

The unembossed card, which account holders will have to apply for, will carry the PayPal logo on its face, but will bear no other identifying information—no name, no account number. 

Transactions on the card will be protected by a PIN. PayPal will also introduce at the same time a companion payment product it calls “Empty Hands,” a system that will let account holders pay the point of sale by entering a phone number and a PIN.

The card is intended to let users access the funding sources they have stored in their accounts, or digital wallets. These can include credit and debit cards, but also loyalty points, prepaid and gift cards, and demand-deposit accounts. 

Although it looks like a familiar payment card, its magnetic stripe stores encrypted data that lets consumers access a variety of accounts through PayPal. The card will not carry the customer's name or an account number but only the PayPal logo.


Keep in mind that The PayPal card might be viewed merely as an extension of wallet functions PayPal has had for a decade or more, experts say. For example, PayPal has had a MasterCard-branded credit and debit card for years. In that sense, PayPal already has been an issuer in its own right. 


But some in the banking industry will see a threat. "It is another step in PayPal's march to disintermediate" the traditional card companies, says Andy Schmidt, research director for commercial banking and payments at TowerGroup.

PayPal s New Card Is a Trojan Horse for the Consumer Wallet

Smart Phones Change Shopping Behavior

Marketing and commerce are changing because of growing adoption of smart phones and the ways people actually use smart phones when shopping.

About 63 percent of smart phone users have visited a retailer’s website from their mobile device, up from 53 percent in 2010, and 41 percent have done so while in the retail store, according to a study by Hipcricket. That has clear content implications.

While mobile retail sites have historically served as “brochures,” lightweight versions of retailers’ full websites that provide limited information such as store locations, directions and hours, today’s mobile-specific retail sites are now providing more significant benefits to consumers as they move along their path-to-purchase.

Fully 50 percent have checked a competitor’s mobile website while in another store.
The survey found that smart phone owners are visiting mobile retail sites to:

Research prices (46 percent);
Search for coupons and offers (36 percent);
Research products (28 percent); and
Purchase products (13 percent)

Some nine percent report that any of their favorite brands market to them using the mobile phone. At the same time, consumers continue to indicate a willingness to join mobile customer relationship management or loyalty programs for their favorite brands. Some 33 percent would be interested in joining such a program, but only 12 percent currently participate in one.
Mobile sites now a factor in retail shopping

Some 79 percent of U.S. smart phone owners relying on their phones to help with shopping, according to Google.

About 70 percent use their phones while shopping in-store and 74 percent of smartphone shoppers made a purchase as a result of using their smartphone.

Some 67 percent said they research on their smartphone and then buy in the store. Fully 95 percent of smart phone users have looked for local information, and as you might expect, such searches often are an immediate precursor to purchasing.  After looking for local information, 77 percent contacted a business, and 44 percent made a purchase. Reaching Today’s Mobile Shoppers

All of that suggests mobile websites will change. First, mobile websites will likely emphasize new types of content, especially local content related to products in stores close to where a users is "right now." Since comparison shopping also is more frequent, retailers will have to adjust by making sure content addresses product variety, "other products like this" and other issues aside from price and availability.

In many cases, such content will aim not only to engage prospects but move them along the sales funnel.

In August 2011, HiveFire surveyed nearly 400 marketing professionals about business-to- business  marketing, with a particular emphasis on content marketing. The top two objectives of content marketing programs are to engage customers and prospects (82 percent) and drive sales (55 percent), respondents indicated.

The survey also found that content marketing has an essential role in B2B strategies but half (50 percent) of content marketers dedicate less than 30 percent of their budgets to it. You might take that as an indication content marketing is affordable, that marketers are devoting a significant amount of resources to content marketing or that there is room for content marketing to become more important.

One caveat is that firms have different ways of accounting for items in a marketing budget. In some cases, personnel might also be “in the budget,” where in other cases only campaign or event costs are tabulated. In a budget containing trade show and conference expenses, advertising and promotion activities, 30 percent is not a “low” number, many would say.

Content marketing is changing the way B2B marketers work. In fact, it is now the most-used marketing strategy, Hivefire says. Report here.

Mobile Commerce, Payments Inflection Point?

There have been a couple other mobile inflection points in the mobile business recently.

Half of Web Sales Will Use Mobile, Social Apps by 2015

By 2015, companies will generate 50 percent of Web sales from their social presence and mobile applications, according to Gartner.

All of that points up the many reasons mobile ecosystem participants are ramping up mobile commerce, mobile advertising, mobile payments and mobile wallet initiatives.

In many instances, the difference between a "Web" sale and a retail sale will blur, as well, many would argue. In other cases, a retail sale will be prompted or driven by mobile promotions as well, use a mobile loyalty or payment mechanism.

Vendors in the e-commerce market will begin to offer new context-aware, mobile-based application capabilities that can be accessed either from a browser or installed as an application on a phone.

"E-commerce organizations will need to scale up their operations to handle the increased visitation loads resulting from customers not having to wait until they are in front of a PC to obtain answers to questions or place orders," said Gene Alvarez, research vice president at Gartner. "In time, e-commerce vendors will begin to offer context-aware mobile-shopping solutions as part of their overall Web sales offerings."

50 Percent of Web Sales from Social Presence, Mobile Apps

Mobile now accounts for over 10% of all sales on eBay UK

More than 10 percent of all purchases on eBay UK now take place through a mobile device. And the UK is leading the way for mobile commerce, with more people buying and selling goods via mobile on eBay than in any other European country.

On eBay UK an item is sold via mobile on average every second, more than 85,000 each day. In August 2011 alone, over two million items were bought through mobile, including twice as many men as women.

Mobile now accounts for over 10% of all sales on eBay UK

Google: 44 Percent Of Searches For Last-Minute Holiday Gifts Will Be Mobile

Google now predicts, based on the past two years worth of data, that in the upcoming 2011 Christmas and holiday shopping season, “44 percent of total searches for last minute gifts and store locator terms will be from mobile devices."

That's a fairly staggering prediction. Google believes that 44 percent of all searches for the gift shopping purpose will be generated by smart phones. There are some potential implications for mobile advertisers, who will have to compete for limited screen real estate.

But the findings also are illustrative for the broader trend of mobile use for real-world shopping activities. That has implications for use of mobile coupons, location-based check-ins and offers and mobile wallet applications, even in advance of a widespread shift to use of mobile payment services.

One of the clear "big trends" now is that mobile and online applications and features increasingly are being applied to offline commerce. 

44 Percent Of Searches For Last-Minute Holiday Gifts Will Be Mobile

Mobile Shopping and the Just-in-Time Consumer:

U.S. consumers are changing the way they shop, and one has to wonder what role mobile shopping applications could have in the future, based on those changes. It isn't just that people can use, and do use, their mobiles for product research and evaluations. There is a physical dimension as well.

A study by Nielsen finds that consumers are making more small trips to the store, even as they also increase trips to big-box supercenters and club retail channels for larger purchases. Both behaviors are typical of the most-affluent shoppers, not just the rest.

Trips with a smaller sales volume are of greater importance to the grocery, drug, convenience, gas and dollar channels, but trips resulting in larger purchase voluems are gaining ground. Here too there are differences across income classification, providing opportunities for retailer/store-specific and consumer segment trip-type solutions.

Shopping trips are segmented into four types, according to Nielsen. "Immediate" trips tend to be conducted for low-value products for which there is an immediate need, and tend to average sales of $15 per trip. "Fill-In" trips feature slightly higher value baskets averaging $51 per trip.

"Routine" trips are weekly, high-value shopping trips averaging $98 per trip while "Stock-up" trips average $242 per trip.

By household income, affluent households ($100,000 or more) ncreased the percentage of smaller trips within supercenters and club stores, and drove more frequent and larger trips in smaller formats such as drug, convenience and dollar stores.

The $70,000 to $99,000 income households reduced larger trips across most channels, but increased smaller trips within supercenters and club stores. Stock-up trips were generally off among these households.

$50k – $69.9k – Middle income households ($50,000 to $69,900) shopped less frequently overall while increasing their trips to value-centric supercenters and dollar stores.

Households in the $40,000 to $49.900 income range decreased trips across most channels, but these households increased their immediate, fill-in and routine trips to club stores, with smaller and stock-up trips to dollar stores also up.

Households in the $30,000 to $39,900 income range increased the number of small trips and supercenter trips, but stock-up trips declined by 10 percent in that channel.

Households in the $20,000 to $29.900 range slightly increased trips to smaller supercenter and club trips, while stock-up trips declined by 10 percent. Dollar stores are performing well among this income group that retailers are targeting.

Households with income less than $20,000 made drastic cutbacks on small grocery trips, while increasing larger grocery and club trips. This may be indicative of pay period buying behavior. This income group shows big drops in larger supercenter trips and softness in dollar store trips.

One might argue that mobile marketers should focus on the fewer trips with higher volume. Those trips tend to be for "repeat" purchase items where a chance to switch brand preference could have long-lasting impact. But one might also argue that there are truly few products, even those bought on "immediate" trips, that do not have brand preference angles. In fact, even before a shopper has a chance to choose between brands on the shelves, a prior decision has been made to visit a particular retail outlet.

The issue is the role mobile marketing can play in shifting locational preference before a shopper is physically in aisles, and then to shift brand preference while shoppers are in the store, shopping. Obviously, mobile marketers will, by default, wind up focusing more on higher-income households to a large extent, because those are the homes with smartphones. But that is going to change over time, as the smartphone becomes the standard device.

The Just-in-Time Consumer: How Shopping Trips Align with Economic Woes | Nielsen Wire

Google Makes Comparison Shopping Easier

Google has introduced a new feature for product searching in the United Kingdom, called "Nearby Shops."

Nearby Shops shows stores in a user's vicinity that sell what a user is searching for. As you can well imagine, this is going to help steer users to "stuff" they want, but also could lead to an increase comparison shopping behavior, since it will be easy to find other locations that might have the same items, in case a user decides a price or other item elements are not right.

Google Launches Nearby Shops In UK | jatiN mahindrA doT coM

51% of U.K. Mobile Users Use Mobile Commerce; 41% of Brands Will Create Mobile Apps or Sites

About 41 percent  of U.K. retail brands expect to have a transactional mobile site or application within the next year, according to a study by the Association for Interactive Media and Entertainment, the Internet Advertising Bureau and Interactive Media in Retail Group.

But 51 percent of mobile phone-owning UK consumers (22.95 million people) have used mobile commerce apps and features.

About 43 percent have used their mobiles to conduct research. About 35 percent report they have used mobile to enhance the shopping experience.

About 37 percent have charged a purchase to their mobile phone bills and 27 percent have used their mobiles to buy goods and charged the purchase to their debit card, credit card or PayPal account.

The study found that while mobile commerce is still very much at the consideration stage, the majority of retailers surveyed expect mobile commerce to be part of their main strategy within the next 12 months.

The survey of 140 marketing professionals from the retail, advertising and mobile service provider sectors in the U.K. also found that 59 percent of the senior-level representatives from U.K. retail brands that took part expected their mobile revenues to increase over the next 12 months, and 94 percent saw it as a real opportunity for their business.

Each month in the U.K. 4.2 million consumers are visiting retailers’ websites using the mobile internet. However, just four out of the top 20 most frequently visited retailer websites are presently optimized for mobile, and only eight of the top 20 have any kind of mobile application for smartphones like the iPhone, Blackberry or Android powered devices.

Whilst most retailers believe their mobile revenues will increase over the next few years, currently around 63 percent either make less than one percent of their total revenues via mobile, or don’t measure their mobile revenues at all at present.

read more here

Enterprises Dominate Mobile Ad Spending

More than a third of interactive marketers have implemented or plan to pilot mobile search and display advertising in the next year, according to Forrester Research analyst Melissa Parrish. And just about everyone believes such spending will grow.

For that reason, Forrester Research expects that interactive marketer spending on mobile search and display will grow at a 28 percent compound annual growth rate over the next five years.

Forrester expects that mobile Internet usage will increase at a compound annual rate of 12.7 percent, with 117 million people — 36 percent of the US population — searching and browsing while using their mobile devices by 2015, Parrish says.

Mobile marketing opportunities will grow as more people use the mobile Internet, of course. At the end of 2007, only 10 percent of U.S. adult subscribers used the mobile Internet. In 2010, mobile Internet usage is up to 27 percent of mobile subscribers, representing 64 million consumers in the
United States market.

Mobile Internet users also are learning to use their mobiles to make purchases. And they aren’t just looking for the nearest coffee house; they’re buying airline tickets, researching cars, and receiving coupons for products like coffee or detergent.

Forrester forecasts that mobile search and display dollars will grow to $2.8 billion by 2015, at a
28 percent CAGR.

But critical mass still is lacking. Though mobile Internet usage is increasing rapidly, marketers still can’t get enough eyeballs on content to justify spending big bucks in the space, says Parrish.

Currently, 78 percent of the US population access the Internet at least monthly while only 21 percent access the mobile Internet. By 2015, mobile Internet usage is expected to reach 43 percent of total desktop Internet usage, making the mobile medium a much more viable channel.

Inability to track performance against spend. More than half of interactive marketers feel they have no capability to measure the ROI or brand impact of their mobile marketing campaigns.

Interactive marketers prefer performance-based campaigns and are willing to pay more for these metrics. Vendors like Google and Bing offer cost-per-click pricing for click-to-call and click-to-get-directions type activities, but mobile display is still largely based on potential impressions, an unsatisfactory metric to most marketers.

Additionally, the holy grail of mobile is location-based marketing, but it’s still unclear how the connection between location-marketing efforts and in-store purchases will occur. Vendors must develop the tools for marketers to track performance and then help marketers understand the value and how to use these new tools.

·Spending by small and mid-sized business is not having too much impact, says Parrish. Forrester’s data suggests that fully 95 percent of mobile advertising dollars currently come from companies with more than $100 million in revenue.

Though the value of mobile advertising is highly relevant to small and mid-sized businesses, which benefit greatly from local and location-specific advertising, smaller budgets and less marketing
expertise will make the percentage of overall spend from SMBs consistently less than eight percent of total mobile spend.

Concerns over privacy, specifically location and carrier information, could provoke a backlash among consumers, leading to some caution as well. Consumers consider mobile phones personal devices to a greater extent than PCs and, for that reason, might continue to expect greater privacy in a mobile context, Parrish suggests.

Appcelerator, PayPal Team for Mobile Commerce

Mobile commerce is a huge business opportunity because, at least in the United States, there is not much infrastructure to support it, though that appears to be changing fast. One example is Appcelerator's recent integration with PayPal, which will allow smartphone apps to use PayPal more easily as a mobile payment mechanism.

Now iPhone, Android and iPad developers using the paid version of the company’s Titanium framework get the ability to conduct mobile commerce.

App Buyers Prefer Carrier or Credit Card Billing

There's an interesting bit of data in a recent Nielsen survey of users about smartphone and feature phone applications and behavior.

Specifically, users have clear preferences when it comes to how they want to pay for mobile apps, opening a wedge for service providers who want to increase the amount of commerce and payment services they can support and derive revenue from.

Given that users’ primary concerns are convenience and security, Nielsen found that users would prefer to have charges appear on their mobile service provider or credit card bills.

The immediate issue is that the most-popular app stores are not controlled or sponsored by mobile operators, but by the handset suppliers. Many think that is a good thing.

But the survey data also suggests a potential new role for mobile service providers as suppliers of third-party billing services. About 32 percent of both smartphone and feature phone users say they prefer to have payments billed on their mobile service statements.

About 31 percent say they currently pay by credit card, but only 24 percent they prefer to pay that way. About 20 percent say they use PayPal, and that's the same percentage of users who say they prefer to pay that way.

About 13 percent pay using iTunes, but just 11 percent say they prefer to pay that way.