Go wireless to get a job; CompTIA

A survey of more than 3,500 information technology (IT) managers by CcompTIA reveals that wireless and RF mobile technology is the skill set expected to increase the most in importance over the next five years. In all but two of fourteen countries surveyed, IT managers said wireless skills will increase the most in importance over the next five years. Wireless skills ranked second in South Africa (behind security) and France (behind Web-based technologies).

Among specific industries, IT managers in healthcare (63 percent) and education (63 percent) were more likely to identify wireless technology as the skill that will be most important five years from now. IT managers in the auto/manufacturing sector (48 percent) were less likely to consider wireless important.

400 Percent Mobile Penetration

Aside from machine-to-machine traffic, it is hard to imagine WiMAX or any other fourth-generation network getting anything close to 400 percent penetration of mobile users. And while we might argue about which entities will provide the revenue, fees or prices lower than we might expect for a primary device are the likely paths. Is 400 percent penetration crazy? Not if new devices supply the demand.

Hulu Scores, YouTube Could

I have to admit I don't use YouTube much, if at all. I do watch Hulu, though, and though the reasons might say as more about me than about the future of on-demand video, there is something worth noting.

When NBC and News Corp announced two years ago that they were creating a new online destination to compete with YouTube, the idea was met with at least some derision, especially from the digirati. As is generally the case, proponents of new media and new "everything" tend to disparage the legacy players opportunties to do anything right in the new way.

But Hulu has done a lot of things right. For starters, it comes me access to short snippets of branded content I actually want to watch, and sometimes have missed. In Hulu's case, it is mostly 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live.

The user interface is really clean, of course, and it is easy to navigate. YouTube dominates user-generated videos of course, so if that is what you are looking for, go there.

At some point, full-length episodes of major TV shows also will be made available, and that's the point. Quality content is very hard to create. So most of what appears on YouTube either isn't very good, or simply isn't of interest.

Hulu doesn't compete with YouTube, in my case or probably in just about any other case. Hulu, even with limited content, is more of a "destination" site, where YouTube isn't. YouTube could change that, in at least one important dimension, though. YouTube would seem a much better destination for business-oriented video, such as a keynote at a conference I didn't attend.

If YouTube or any other provider can put together enough of that sort of content, I will use it.

Mobile Calls: 40% Are Churn Inducing

About four out of 10 mobile calls have call quality low enough (Mean Opinion Score score of 2.5) to put the relationship with the customer at risk, a survey of 630 million live mobile calls in 12 countries strongly suggests.

The reason is that subjective call quality below a MOS score of 2.5 is considered "unacceptable" by users and the ITU. When so many mobile calls are right at the threshold, they are, by definition, not "quality" calls.

You might wonder how it is that so many calls, and so many carriers, in so many countries, can have that many calls of questionable quality, when network engineers will tell you the networks are performing quite well.

The problem is that both the survey results and the network engineers are generally right: the "network" is working as it should. The problem is that problems outside the network (ambient environment around the user handset, for example) are disrupting performance. If you test the "network" in the old way, the ambient disruptors cannot be detected.

In mature markets such as the U.S. and Western Europe, 23 percent of all calls fall below the industry minimum. In rapid growth markets, such as the Middle East, India and South America, 59 percent of all calls fall below the industry minimum.

There are three primary issues, says Ken Croley, Ditech Networks director. Ambient noise, or noise that originates in the caller’s environment and enters the device’s microphone, was rated “objectionable” on up to 50 percent of all calls in some regions.

Acoustic echo, which is often caused by mobile handsets and headsets, was rated “objectionable” on up to 11 percent of all calls in some regions. That includes distortion-inducing elements such as Bluetooth ear pieces, for example.

Voice level mismatch, which makes it sound like a caller is speaking either too loudly or too softly, was rated “objectionable” on up to 28 percent of all calls in some regions, and is generally seen as a byproduct of codec mismatches.

The finds came as "a shock to carriers," says Croley. The distortions are "external to the network and missed by the network tests precisely because external to the network." Audio can bounce off a car windshield and back into a microphone, for example.

The corollary is that the problems cannot be fixed by adding more base stations or adding bandwidth. By definition, the issues are caused outside the network, by messiness in the user's aural environment.

Ambient noise levels are an issue as well: think of the trade show floor at CTIA or a crowded bar on Friday night.

The audits were conducted using Experience Intelligence (EXi), a technology developed by Ditech that quantifies the impact of voice quality impairments caused by the places where people make calls, codec impairments, and mobile devices like phones and headsets.

EXi is based on the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) G.107 E-Model, a widely used industry standard, and the technology has been utilized in the communications industry as a complement to existing voice quality test and measurement solutions.

Ditech believes the problems can be fixed by using EXi. Of course, there is the other solution: ban Bluetooth, prohibit talking in noisy places and outlaw talking while driving. Right.

Unlimited Plan Impact

So far, it doesn't seem that new unlimited use plans offered by all the major providers have had any particular impact on revenues. In fact, at&t executives claim that the new plan is revenue neutral. In other words, as many people are upgrading to the new plans as are downgrading from plans where they paid more.

What does seem likely is that more users will be exposed to what they can do when they have data services beyond texting. To the extent there is an ultimate change in revenue, it will be found in increased sales of data products of various types.

Verizon earlier had noted that just 305,000 of its subscribers--0.5% of its sub base--had wireless calling plans priced at more than $99.99 per month, at the time it launched its unlimited calling plan.

Those customers spent an average of $125 to $135 per month on phone calls. So even if every one of those customers dropped down to $99 a month plans, Verizon would be looking at just $7.6 million to $10.7 million in lost revenue per month.

And that would be balanced by increased revenue from customers upgrading to the new plan.

2010 for Verizon, at&t 4G Nets

Verizon says it will light its new fourth-generation network in 2010. Executives at at&t haven't been equally specific, but Kristin Rinner, at&t SVP says "we estimate it possibly will be 2010 before the whole ecosystem is in place for us to launch." Of course, time tables can slip. Neither carrier will be overly anxious to commit billions more in capital to light networks that will be lightly loaded for some time.

And they might just watch Xohm and Clearwire for clues about demand. If growth is sluggish, there will be incentive to delay. If growth is robust, they'll stay on schedule. There's still lots of work to do creating new revenue-generating applications on the 3G network.

And watching what users do on 3G networks is key. Just recently, Apple's iPhone has shown that the right device and plan can cause new behaviors to explode. And that's just on the slower Edge network. Once we start to get data on 3G use, we'll get some additional glimmers of what might be feasible for 4G.

One trend already seems clear. If carriers can get smart phones into the hands of users--by selling them at lower prices--then data plan usage goes way up. And having lots of people using data plans is about the only way we're going to figure out what things people want to do.

And since the 3G network will remain in operation, there will be a huge need to create new "data" applications that require 4G capabilities without simply cannibalizing 3G alternatives. It's sort of odd to think of 3G as a "legacy" network, but that's what it is becoming. It remains a strategic legacy network to be sure. The point is simply that 4G makes no sense unless it expands the range of new services people can use. Nobody needs another "voice and text" or "moderate speed broadband" network.

MobileTalk: Really Easy

Right now, there are a couple issues users face when using VoIP from a mobile phone. In some cases, carriers might interfere with that sort of thing. Not that they do, but they can. Verizon Wireless PC card owners know their terms of service actually prohibits VoIP and even use of the air card from a "home" location. Not that I've ever met anybody who had trouble with either of those two clauses. But the clauses and the rules exist, in case Verizon Wireless does want to enforce them.

So anything that makes VoIP easier or does not risk infringement of an ISP's terms of service is welcome. That's not to say Mobivox or Jajah, for example, are hard to use. No harder than dialing an access number, really.

But 8x8's Packet8 MobileTalk arguably is even easier.Packet8 MobileTalk uses a downloadable software application that can currently reside on any Windows, Palm or Symbian based mobile phone. The app works in the background.

Packet8 MobileTalk users can dial calls directly and natively from their mobile handset, contact list or speed dial directory with no additional keystrokes.

Once a destination number is dialed or selected, the Packet8 MobileTalk software application identifies the international prefix being called and redirects the call to a local Packet8 network access number.

That's it.

You download the MobileTalk app, then make calls as usual. When an international number is dialed, MobileTalk automatically redirects the call to a local access number, which uses the 8X8 VoIP network to complete the call.

Packet8 MobileTalk is currently available for Windows Mobile, Symbian, and BlackBerry phones, and is expected for Java phones in soon.

Sign up now and the activation fee is waived. There is no monthly recurring charge.

As this data from Sound Partners suggests, more minutes of use are going to shift to mobile VoIP, as this forecast suggests will be the case in western Europe.

Streaming Causing ISPs to Upgrade

Consumer use of streaming video over the web has more than doubled in the past year, and Internet service providers and networking companies--at least their personnel--believe lots more is coming, according to the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance poll.

Nearly two-in-three industry respondents (26 percent) think the delivery of streaming video has significantly increased the demand for networking technology and products, while 38 percent say it's caused a moderate demand increase, says Paul Carton, ChangeWave analyst.

Count Cisco and other infrastructure suppliers, as well as bandwidth barons, as winners.

at&t VoIP for Austin

U-verse IP-based voice service is being introduced in the Austin area. So those of you who wonder when incumbent service providers will get on the VoIP bandwagon have an answer. VoIP makes most sense for an incumbent provider when the basic service package includes other IP-based video services.

Even when IP isn't extended completely to all the end points, the adoption pattern will mirror the ways IP and optical fiber was introduced into the rest of the network. IP made first sense in the network core. So did fiber. Over time, fiber extended into the metro trunking plant. That same sort of thing will happen as soft switches replace older TDM switches.

VoIP features will be made available at the central office, with media gateways between the end user analog equipment and the CO. Over a period of time, the gateways will migrate deeper into the access network.

But there will not be a complete flash cut to VoIP as the voice platform until some critical mass is reached. At some point, half the customers will be buying IP-based video or data services. Sometime around then, it starts to be feasible to decommission the older networks.

But not much before then will it make lots of sense.

DirecTV, FiOS Taking Share

DirecTV and Verizon's FiOS (where it is available) are getting 58 percent of the customers as consumers in a February 2008 survey describe the choices they will make in buying new video service providers.

Keep in mind, these are customers who already have decided to make a change. And as the incumbent, a cable operator is going to be hit disproportionately by customers who want to make a change.

The survey also suggests about four percent of respondents are leaving another service provider for Comcast, for example.

Considering that DirecTV is operating as a "single play" for the most part, it is doing quite well, though some percentage of its new additions come from telephone company customers buying DirecTV as the "video" component of a virtual triple play or dual play.

Apple and RIM Lead Smart phone Sales

According to a March 2008 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, the smart phone industry is "a two-horse race between Research In Motion's BlackBerry and Apple's iPhone," say Paul Carton and Jim Woods, ChangeWave analysts.

As the incumbent, RIM continues to enjoy a commanding market share lead, with 42 percent. Apple has nine percent, but is growing faster than RIM.

If customer satisfaction is an indicator of future growth, Apple will contiunue gaining share. About 79 percent of iPhone owners report they're "very satisfied" with their phone. About 54 percent of BlackBerry users say the same.

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, 35 percent say they'll purchase an Apple iPhone, a huge jump since January 2008.

About 29 percent say they will buy a BlackBerry.

at&t Warms to Android

Initially cautious about the Google-initiated Open Handset Alliance, at&t Wireless might be having a change of heart.

"I like it a lot more than I did before," says Ralph de la Vega, AT&T Mobility CEO. "It's something we would want in our portfolio."

"I think it's going to be a good option for us and a good option for our customers," de la Vega says. The wireless giant might be intrigued about being able to put its own applications on OHA devices.

And that offers at&t room for innovation and differentiation, just as open platforms allow innovation by other application providers.

Intel: Internet in Your Pocket

There's a symmetry between Intel introducing new "Atom" processors and Sprint's interest in WiMAX. As the Internet becomes more pervasive, the desire to be constantly connected using wireless and wired broadband--but especially wireless-- will drive the creation of computing-intensive consumer products that benefit from really-fast wireless connectivity.

And that's the whole idea behind the Intel Centrino Atom processor, formerly known as "Silverthorne": low power consumption, advanced graphics handling, quality audio and fast page downloads.

The whole idea is that new consumer devices benefiting from fast mobile broadband will emerge.

In a real way, that's what is emerging from studies of how Apple iPhone users behave. Sure, people talk, text and check their email. But the really stunning behavioral difference is the use of Web applications.

"Internet in your pocket" is a fairly accurate way to describe the coming change. Unless that is going to be a big trend, everybody is wasting time and money thinking about and preparing to build WiMAX, LTE (Long Term Evolution) and other fourth-generation networks.

Biggest Non-Story at CTIA

Sprint Nextel announcing a reinvigorated WiMax venture with Clearwire, Comcast, Time Warner Google and Intel. There was supposedly an April 1 self-imposed deadline for reaching agreement, and it does appear the deadline passed with no agreement.

That, in and of itself, doesn't necessarily mean a deal won't ultimately be reached, or that a deal is unreachable. Cable operators have been in deals with Sprint before, with arguably meager gains on the operational front. But they know Sprint.

What the cablers might not be so sure about is their wireless strategy. Some might argue that with open networks coming, owning the network might not be crucial. Others, possibly with less justification, might argue that cablers don't actually "get" the importance of wireless.

More plausibly, there remain several issues. Investors probably are not wild about the capital investments. Cable executives traditionally have not been comfortable running services on somebody else's network. Wireless is not necessarily a core competency or a service that can be incrementally grafted onto the hybrid fiber coax network.

Perhaps some worry about betting on WiMAX when the telcos will back LTE. More significantly, perhaps, is uncertainty about the size and customer appetite for all sorts of services that go beyond voice. There is, in fact, almost no reason to build wireless broadband networks capable of 50 Mbps to 100 Mbps if in fact various sorts of new broadband services are not the revenue drivers.

And lots of experienced people probably would have to admit it is not yet possible to outline all the popular new services and business models that will drive fourth generation networks. In the midst of that much uncertainty, executives might not feel a need to rush a decision.

Most Jarring Moment at CTIA

There often is some point, in an opening keynote at CTIA, when a keynoter tosses out an applause line, typically having to do with Google, Skype or open networks in general. And amidst the applause, one always is reminded that innovations almost always have been "forced" upon the industry--the salient exception being digital switching--which allowed service providers to lower their costs while adding features.

That's not to pick on wireless providers. The same thing happens at cable industry keynotes and elsewhere. Every organization and every person must have a business model, it goes without saying. And it asks too much of participants to expect robust embrace of trends that harm their own revenue models.

But that is what markets are about, and why they are a good thing. And lest we forget: markets only work when they permit harm to befall contestants when better alternatives arise. Take away failure and there is no way to drive success. "Creative destruction," economists call it.

Still, it is asking too much to expect people to welcome harm. Hence the applause.