The New Conventional IT Wisdom

It is perhaps a commentary on how much things have changed that the U.K.-based research group Butler Group can put out a new research report that confirms what the consensus is.

Butler Group says organizations are moving from traditional hierarchies based on command and control to looser structures featuring collaboration and team work, with a fundamental shift from one-to-one to many-to-many communication.

Communications service providers typically worry more about access line shrinkage, margins on minutes of use and adoption of new services, than about changes in user communication modes. But Butler Group's point about many-to-many communication is key.

It implies a growing shift to "broadcast" modes of communication such as blogs, Twitter-style streaming and social networking mechanisms.

Organizations also are beginning to expand past their traditional boundaries found in the past, which is driving the need for IP infrastructure.

There is a requirement for greater location independence, with remote working becoming more popular and many employees no longer remaining in one place for any great length of time, the research group says.

"It is becoming apparent that the existing separate silo-ed infrastructures are no longer the answer," Butler Group says.

"A services-based approach is best suited to this environment," Butler Group says.

That means Web services, says Mark Blowers, Butler Group director.

"Moving away from proprietary solutions for voice and data to a horizontal communications architecture will enable the communications environment to be broken down into separate layers, making use of industry standards to integrate the hardware, common services, and administration elements," he says.

All of that shows what the new consensus is. Web services, software as a service, open networks, remote and cross-boundary communications. Most significant of all, from a service provider perspective, is the move to "many-to-many" communications. That could be as significant as the shift from wired to wireless communications.

3G BlackBerry 9000 Delay

Research In Motion's 9000 series BlackBerry may be delayed by two months due to battery life, voice quality and other issues, RBC Capital Markets says.

The new device was expected to be announced in May with a June launch for AT&T in the U.S. and Vodafone in Europe, but might now be delayed to July and August, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky says.

Some suggest the "Meteor" will use the new BlackBerry 4.5 operating system, a 624MHz processor, 480x320 screen, GPS, Wi-Fi and HSDPA, a 3G mobile communications protocol that is reportedly the source of the battery problems.

The new BlackBerry may also have rounded edges, giving it a sleeker look. Reports suggest that it will not have a touch screen like Apple's iPhone.

The BlackBerry and iPhone are in what some observers call a "two horse smart phone race," and 3G connections are the top new feature iPhone users want, according to ChangeWave.

AT&T Begins Starbucks Wi-Fi Rollout

AT&T has begun its rollout of Wi-Fi service at company-operated Starbucks stores, kicking off a nationwide effort that will continue through 2008.

As of May 1, qualifying AT&T high speed Internet and Wi-Fi customers will have complimentary Wi-Fi access at more than 7,000 Starbucks locations nationwide.

Free AT&T Wi-Fi service is currently offered with AT&T's three higher-speed residential broadband packages, all small business broadband packages and with all AT&T U-verse offerings with high speed Internet service.

For other customers, AT&T Wi-Fi service will reach company-operated Starbucks locations on a market-by-market basis throughout the year. The experience will include a mix of free and paid connection options for both frequent and occasional Wi-Fi users and qualifying Starbucks customers.

Mobile Skype in Beta

Skype has released a beta version of Skype for mobile phones. The “thin“ client works on about 50 of the most popular Java-enabled mobile phones from Motorola, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson, Skype says.

The beta version is available worldwide with a feature set that includes chat, group chat, presence, and inbound calls from Skype users using SkypeIn.

Additional features, which include Skype-to-Skype and SkypeOut calls from the mobile handsets, are initially supported in seven markets: Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

U.S. Smart Phone Market: iPhone and BlackBerry

ChangeWave says its polls show a rapidly evolving two-horse race between the Apple iPhone and Research in Motion BlackBerry, with second tier players like Palm (PALM) and a host of others being shoved to the sidelines.

BlackBerry owners like most the BlackBerry's exceptional access to email. What they don't like is its Internet browsing experience.

As you might guess, iPhone users value different features. By far the most lauded feature of the iPhone among owners is its seamless integration of a Phone, iPod and Internet browser.

The second most popular feature is the iPhone's touch screen interface, followed by its ease of use.

There is no doubt about what iPhone owners hate most: the speed of the AT&T EDGE network. Nor do they like being restricted to using just one carrier.

Users also expressed unhappiness with the iPhone's lack of copy-and-paste functionality.

Each device has "a super-loyal cadre of users that fervently support their phone brand, and each has extraordinary room to grow," Compete says.

BlackBerry continues to show "enormous strength" among ChangeWave business users.

"But the bottom line in this horse race is Apple and Research In Motion are both giant winners," says ChangeWave. "The rest of the smart phone manufacturers lose."

VCs Think TV is Ripe for Disruption

Venture capitalists seem to agree that television is a business ripe for disruption. Silicon Alley bloger Michael Learmonth says 68 startups landed $460.5 million in funding in 2007, up from $266.9 million in 2006. Venture capitalists also invested another $217.3 million in the first quarter of 2008, he says.

$6 Billion Enterprise VoIP Market by 2012

Business-class VoIP service revenues could reach $6 Billion by year end 2012n say researchers at Pike & Fischer.

The firm predicts business-class VoIP services in the United States will grow at a 31 percent compound annual growth rate over the next four years. In a new study, we've concluded that revenue for

One Bucket for Voice and Broadband

One of the reasons unified communications, unified messaging, unified services, fixed mobile convergence, mashups and other similar concepts are so confusing is partly because there are lots of different ways they can be implemented, and because they highlight different ways software usage and communications are changing.

In some future incarnation, users who pay money for services will be able to invoke various identities and roles when using those services and features, with some sort of analogy to "multiple service, single log in" rather than "single service, single sign-on."

In other words, where today users might have to log in serially to multiple services they want to use, in the future they might be able to log in once, but use different features, devices and network services depending on their "roles" and "identities," while the network itself figures out all the details of authentication and security.

In the nearer term, it might be more common to find that customers buy a service, such as "voice and messaging" or "broadband access," and then be able to use any number of access networks or devices as part of the one service. Think of a single bucket of usage that can be used for "calling," "messaging" or Web surfing, for example.

Instead of buying separate 3G wireless service, digital subscriber line and then Wi-Fi hotspot service, a user might be able to buy "broadband" and use all the various modalities. The same sort of concept might hold for "calling," where mobile, fixed or PC-mediated, TV-mediated, game console or some other format is used.

AT&T is pushing that way, for example. Having a large internal customer base, or "community" if you like, it can leverage assets and relationships in a fairly broad way. All AT&T voice customers, for example, are one huge calling community.

In the meantime, lots of changes on lots of fronts will keep happening, pushing almost inexorably toward a future where features are made available not on a location or device or number level, but at a authenticated user level. Beyond that lies the ability to invoke features based on an identity or role.

Java: 100 Percent Open Source

Sun Microsystems says Java will be made 100 percent open source. Sun began moving that direction in 2006 and now will hope the change prompts much more development on the Linux platform.

The move does not finally the answer the question of how some companies can make money "selling" things other people offer "for free." Still, the move will provide more examples of how "for fee" businesses and services are built on "free" or "open" platforms.

One of the obvious developments so far is that "open" is one business model, "free" another. Platforms can be "open" to innovation without using a "free to end user" business model. On the other hand, "free" platforms can sometimes create huge ecosystems of "for fee" devices, services and software that leverage a widely-used "free" platform.

Mobiles: Slowdown Possible

Mobile shipments are shaping up to be softer in the second quarter, says ABI Research Vice President Jake Saunders. "Year on year, the first quarter of 2008 was up 13.7 percent, but the second quarter of 2008 is likely to be softer than in previous years."

Shipment volumes in the developed markets have softened slightly due to the credit crisis, but emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific, South America, and the Middle East/Africa are delivering growth rate percentages in the mid-20sn he says.

Nokia increased its share to 39.9 percent while Samsung and LG were also net winners with 16 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, he adds.

Motorola continued to lose market share (falling 2.6 percent) to 9.5 percent, while Sony Ericsson lost market share (down to 7.7 percent).

But a new class of mobile device: MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices). MIDs made their debut last year, and some might consider them contenders of a new sort.

ABI Research expects 2008 to top out at 1.28 billion devices shipped – a 12 percent increase year over year. But the firm also warns there could be exposure to the downside.

Spam Not an Issue?

Ferris Research wonders why there isn't more interest in spam problems on the part of the media. One reason might be that ISPs, application providers and security suites are doing a pretty good job these days.

One observation: mission creep is an issue lots of organizations face. Attention gets paid on new problems that sooner or later get solved. Then organizations or companies have to find some new problem to solve or they are out of business.

Maybe spam is that sort of problem.

Teens: 60% Have Mobiles, 70% Have PCs

Six in ten teens (59 percent) now have a desktop or laptop computer and 71 percent own mobile phones, up from 45 percent in 2004 and 63 percentin 2006, says the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

Overall, more than four in ten teens (45 percent) personally have both a computer and a cell phone with cell phone (81 percent) and computer (65 percent) ownership being
particularly high among older teens.

iPhone Boosts Wireless Data Revenue

The iPhone clearly is boosting AT&T Wireless data revenues, which increased 57 percent increase year-over-year in its most-recent quarter.

Wireless revenue for the first quarter of 2008 was $11.8 billion, with wireless data revenue contributing $2.3 billion, or 22 percent, of that total, compared with 16 percent in the same period last year.

Internet access, email, and messaging overall are the drivers. And there's no doubt smart phones are key. Smart phone users generate twice the data revenue of typical phone users.

iPhone average revenue per user is more than $90, AT&T executives say.

BT's 90 Day Cycles Startle People

BT now operates on 90-day development cycles for applications, including the time needed to prepare a business case, says Dave Axam, BT director of transformation. In some cases, as you would suspect, more than a single cycle might be required for a single project.

But that sort of speed seemed to startle many delegates at the MetaSwitch Forum, many of whom are independent telcos, rural cooperatives, competitive local exchange carriers, cable companies and other associated with those ecosystems.

But Axam says BT is serious about that sort of adaptation to a world running "at Google speed." He was given the assignment of launching voice over IP for BT "in three months." Axam says he discovered early on that Session Initiation Protocol is a bit like English--one has to know which variant of the dialect is being used--and that has taught BT much about the pitfalls of relying exclusively on such "standards."

All of that seemed to provoke some anxiety on the part of delegates, who may well have been wondering how well they'll fare in a world that requires innovation at that sort of speed, with the relationships and assets such speed would seem to require. BT, after all, created a developer community, a software development kit, feedback, response and interaction capabilities as part of the overall effort.

"But one of the hardest things is the commercial wrap," says Axam. That means the ability to intgrate new applications, many with some sort of tie to the Web, with the rest of BT's services.

One delegate, who seemed to agree with the characterization of where things were headed, nevertheless expressed the obvious point that "I don't think we are going to be putting together third-party developer groups" to do this sort of thing.

Anxiety? Yes, for many reasons. The integration of Web with telephony, the increasing importance of software-mediated experiences, the growing technological complexity of the business overall and the different assets required, may well be disadvantages for whole classes of competitors, even as the trends favor larger, wealthier companies.

All of that simply creates new opportunities for aggregators of applications, though. Still, as another delegate put it, "I'm not sure how comfortable I am with putting my widget on an iGoogle page."

But that might be a more viable avenue than trying to "force" customers to a service provider portal, as beneficial as that might be for the service provider.

Qwest Readies 20 Mbps Access Service

Qwest appears to be very close to launching a 20 Mbps downstream, 896 kbps upstream access service called Qwest Connect Platinum, available on a "naked" basis without the requirement for buying a voice line at the same time, and costing $109.99 a month.

The consumer portal now seems to be working just fine, so enter your street address or phone number, if you use landline service and are a Qwest customer, to find out what sorts of speeds really are available at your location. In my case, for example, my connection back to the central office appears to be long enough as to preclude getting 20 Mbps. About 5 Mbps is all Qwest actually can deliver to my location in Denver.

And Qwest does not seem to among those service providers who want to "throttle" use of bandwidth, as the Qwest Web site emphasizes using the service for "watching full-length movies online, multi-player Internet games, multitasking with multiple Internet applications and networking computers.

Signing a two-year contract locks in that price "for life."