Google Chrome has Launched

Google's new "Chrome" browser is available for download now.

Business Model Transformation Coming? It Came

ITU Telecom Chairman Dr A Reza Jafari says the global telecom industry is in the midst of a fundamental business model transformation whose most-obvious element is mobility.

According to the Federal Communications Commission data on end-user revenues earned by telephone companies, that certainly is the case.

In 1997 about 16 percent of revenues came from mobility services. In 2007, more than 49 percent of end user revenue came from mobility services.

Likewise, in 1997 more than 47 percent of revenue came from long distance services. In 2007 just 18 percent of end user revenues came from long distance.

In 1997 about 37 percent of total revenues came from local service, while in 2007 about 33 percent was provided by local services.

One way of looking at matters is that the global industry already has lived through two major shifts in revenue: first the collapse of long distance and second the rise of wireless. If you want to know why legacy AT&T and MCI ceased to be dominant independent companies, the collapse of long distance revenues from 47 percent to just 18 percent explains it.

And if you want some idea of where things have gone, wireless has replaced long distance as the provider of nearly half of all revenues. Local services have dipped a bit from 37 percent to 33 percent.

In all likelihood, the next change will involve revenues not even captured by the 1997 and 2007 data, and go beyond wireless. Telco moves into multi-channel video entertainment are but one example.

Are you Discomgoogolated?

About 44 percent of Britons say they are "discomgoogolation sufferers", while 27 percent say they have rising stress levels when they are unable to go online. The results of a survey commissioned by U.K.-based YouGov attempted to measure the importance of immediate access to information made possible by Google and the Web.

The term comes from "discombobulate," which means to confuse or frustrate, and "Google".

The survey attempted to gauge the degree of reliance on instant answers to information provided by Google and other search engines and portals.

The survey also found 76 percent of Britons could not live without the Internet, with over half of the population using the Web between one and four hours a day and 19 percent of people spending more time online than with their family in a week.

The survey results provide testimony about the importance Web and Internet access now have assumed in peoples' lives.

Microsoft to Create App Marketplace?

AppleInsider says Microsoft is looking for a product manager who could help bring to market a widget directory for Windows Mobile similar to the iTunes App Store for the iPhone.

Calling the store "Skymarket", Microsoft suggested the store will open sometime in 2009. The new product manager would have to define "the product offering, pricing, business model and policies that will make the Windows Mobile marketplace 'the place to be' for developers wishing to distribute and monetize their Windows Mobile applications."

It is simply one more example of the importance third party software developers now have become for success in a world of digital content and applications. Whether one is looking at the value provided by a mobile device, portal, enterprise application or many types of hardware appliances, third party innovation now has become as important as proponents of open platforms and IP networks suggested it would be.

AT&T, Verizon Ramp Up DSL Marketing

It is starting to appear that a dramatic second-quarter fall-off in net new broadband access customers at AT&T, Verizon and Qwest was due to marketing inattention by telcos and brisk activity by cable companies. At least, that's what one would surmise based on ramped-up marketing programs AT&T and Verizon now are rolling out.

Verizon Communications Inc., in the second quarter the first telco ever to see a drop in DSL subscribers, now is offering customers six months of DSL service free if they sign up for the company's phone and Internet package. AT&T now is guaranteeing its current rates for two years.

Wall Street Journal staff writer Vishesh Kumar reports that "while the most generous offers are coming from the phone companies, some analysts expect cable companies will also become more aggressive in their own promotions as they compete to retain customers."

Cable and phone companies added 887,000 new broadband customers during the second quarter, half the number they added a year earlier, according to research from Leichtman Research Group.

It wasn't immediately clear, when the second quarter acquisition numbers appeared, what had happened. Basically, Verizon and AT&T experiences an unusual order of magnitude drop in net broadband adds, something completely at odds with several years worth of quarterly additions.

One conceivable explanation was a sudden shift in consumer preferences for cable modem service as compared to DSL. Another partial answer in Verizon's case was that broadband adds increasingly were shifting to FiOS, and away from DSL.

Also, aggressive promotioinal activity by cable companies undoubtedly played a role, combined with some sort of inattention to broadband marketing on the part of the telcos. Whatever the causes, it now appears marketing efforts by telcos will be much more aggressive in the third quarter.

Google to Launch Own Browser

Google Inc. plans to launch its own Web browser, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The browser, called Google Chrome, will be developed on an open-source platform, and is designed to make it easier and faster to browse the Web, by offering enhanced address-bar features and other elements.

That might seem like an odd move. But browsers have become important business model platforms. Though there might ultimately be other strategic advantages, the immediate emphasis seems to be the linkage between browsers and default search engine use. Browser revenue streams these days often rely on search engine revenue. That is the business model for the free Firefox browser, for example.

And for Google, the ad rates it can charge for search and related advertising are dependent on the scope and frequency of search engine queries.

"Too Much Information" a UC Opportunity

One of the most important skills executives need today is the know-how to manage and harness their personal information flow, says Steve Rubel, SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital.

By 2009, the Radicati Group predicts that we’ll spend 41 percent of our time managing email, he notes. Now add to that the IMs, documents, Facebook pokes, RSS feeds, Twitter tweets and text messages coming at us and we’re officially way oversubscribed, he notes.

That's an issue and an opportunity for providers of various unified communications services and applications. Human attention is finite; it doesn’t scale. So in a way, making it possible to receive any message, at any time, on any device, is going to make the information deluge worse, not better.

So the idea of protecting users from communications access is something of an unexplored territory. The notion is that the ability to protect users from getting messages might be more important than allowing them to get all messages, anytime, anywhere. Filtering, call screening and other limitation techniques are, in that sense, as important as accessibility.

Spam filters are somewhat helpful, though less so than one would hope if a user works in any business where messages from people one has not communicated with before are a daily reality. In some cases in can help to prioritize messages from people one has initiated communications with, or communicates with frequently. In other cases, where useful and important messages can arrive without benefit of "permission" tagging, filtering is a problem.

Unified communications, as helpful as it can be, carries with it the other problem of "overload." Someday, that's going to create new opportunities for application providers that can help with "pay attention to this" mechanisms.

Which Word Processor Do You Use? Does it Matter as Much?

Microsoft Word is the word processor of choice, but GoogleDocs now is used by 20 percent of users while OpenOffice is favored by 18 percent of users, according to a poll taken by 535 ReadWriteWeb readers. About seven percent of users reported a text editor, such as Microsoft's "Notepad," is the word processor of choice.

A couple of things got my attention here. Respondents were asked which text editor they "mostly used." My immediate impulse was to say "Microsoft Word." But then I thought about it. Looking at the text entry I do in a day, the number of occurrences is dominated by email messages, not an actual "word processor" application.

The other reflection is that, as a heavy blogger, I now use "notepad" or text editor apps, or the actual text entry areas of blog software more than the word processor itself. In fact, the clear pattern is use of email, notepad and blog word processing tools every day, Word for the few days a month when I actually prepare long-form magazine articles.

Add in other forms of text entry, such as short message service and traditional "word processing" doesn't get used, except for preparation of print magazine stories. All the other text is SMS, notepad, email or blog software. As I am on a temporary "get less connected" jag, I avoid starting up my IM clients. But that's another contender for text creation and editing.

I guess I hadn't really thought about it much, but my use of text tools has changed dramatically over the past few years, driven by blogging. I suspect most of us can cite similar or additional ways our use of word processing or text manipulation has changed over the past decade or so.

Cable, Internet Ad Spending Caveats

At first glance, opportunities for new providers to grab significant ad revenue generated by linear, multi-channel video would seem promising. According to Nielsen Online, about 24 percent of current ad spending goes to cable television.

So telcos ought to be able to tap a significant share of that revenue at some point, the logic would be.

The issue is that most of the cable television ad revenue is captured by programming networks, not by cable companies. Cable companies get about seven percent of their revenue from advertising.

If one looks at the share of online video ad revenue, Internet gets about seven percent. Same issue there: nearly all that revenue is earned by application providers; very little by ISPs.

250 Gbyte per Month Caps: Comcast

Comcast will cap Internet usage of its broadband subscribers at 250 Gigabytes per month starting Oct. 1, 2008. Typical users will not be liable for any hard caps, at that level. Comcast says median usage these days for its residential customers is about two to three gigabytes a month. To trigger the cap, a user would have to be watching a fair amountof video. Comcast says the cap would be hit if users watched 125 standard-definition movies.

Assuming a two-hour average movie duration, that works out to about 250 hours of streamed video, equivalent to eight hours a day, 30 days a week. That could get to be an issue at some point, but few human beings have time to watch that much streamed video and do much of anything else related to work, school, exercise or friends.

So far, the only users already "close" to the 250 Gbyte cap are less than one percent of heavy movie downloaders, one suspects. Comcast says less than one percent of its current users are "even close" to 250 Gbytes a month of usage.

EU Commissioner Proposes Billing Changes

European Union telecommunications Commissioner Viviane Reding does not like the way some mobile operators are charging by the minute rather than second for calls made while traveling between EU countries.

Mobile operators obviously don't relish the thought of new rules that would force them to bill in seconds or fractions of minutes. .

In France, Spain, Lithuania and Portugal, operators have to bill by the second, but national legislation is not practical for roamed calls, the Commission spokesman said.

The EU has already adopted a law to cap the price of roamed voice calls for three years, with the cap due to be lowered on Saturday and in August next year before the law expires in 2010. The EU is expected to renew the caps for another three years in October, and also might introduce new caps on text messaging charges when users are roaming.

EU nations and the European Parliament would have to approve the changes.

Broadband: As Good as It Gets

Competition in the wired network broadband space is currently about as good as it’s going to get for the foreseeable future, and could even backslide, according to Blair Levin, Stifel Nicolaus analyst. That accords with the thinking of analysts at the Phoenix Center, who have argued for some years that robust competition between cable and telcos, while not as good as having more facilities-based competitors, is as much as can be expected in the U.S. market, and offers the practical hope of delivering competitive benefits to users, despite hopes for more.

“Prospects for the long-heralded ‘third pipe’ appear dim and dimming,” Levin says, as reported by Telephony Online. There has been no shortage of possible contenders over the last 30 years. Wireless always tops the list. Then there are the electrical utilities, municipal networks and broadband-over-powerline technology, none of which have made much of a dent.

One wag quips that "wireless is the technology of the future, and always will be." But Clearwire appears set on building a facilities-based, national third pipe. And fourth-generation networks, overall, might shift share away from wired alternatives, many believe.

“The market is as competitive as it is ever going to be, as far as we can see," says Levin. At least on the wired network side of the ledger, that likely is true.

But Levin says 4G wireless rollouts in 2010 or 2012 could represent a significant change in the competitive landscape.

100 Mbps Wireless Broadband by 2010?

Mobile broadband could hit 100 Mbps before fiber to home access is widely deployed in many markets, according to the GSM Association. Japan and South Korea, as early as 2010, might be followed by access at those sorts of speeds in the European market by 2012.

That doesn't necessarily mean wireless broadband will be a fully-functional substitute for fixed broadband for every application. It does point out that the "race" to enhance fixed network broadband speeds is important for competitive reasons beyond the tactics of competing wired network providers.

AT&T Launches Nationwide Tech Support Business

One more example that the demarcation between "network" and "user premises" steadily is being erased, in the office or the home, AT&T has launched a nationwide "Geek Squad" or "Firedog" service for customers in all 50 States, whether they are AT&T customers or not.

The “ConnecTech” service will help consumers configure computers, set up networking, and install home theaters and mount TVs. Prices range from $69 for basic remote troubleshooting of a PC or home network support to $179 for at-home support.

Those are flat-rate prices, not per hour. It can cost $849 for a technician to mount a flat-panel TV over 32″ on a wall, connect audio and video components, conceal cables in the wall as construction allows, and demonstrate to how to use the whole system.

A simple PC set-up, where the tech hooks it up to a home network, downloads updates to Microsoft Windows and hooks up your printer will cost a flat-rate $119. An Apple Mac set up costs $159.

In the world of IP communications and digital devices, no service provider forever can ignore the need to operate on both sides of the network interface or firewall.

New Comcast Traffic Shaping Plan

Comcast has a new plan to deal with bandwidth hogs: slowing down their broadband access connections for periods of 10 minutes to 20 minutes, at peak congestion periods. Comcast hasn't yet offered a definition of what a "heavy user" is or how much bandwidth consumption qualifies one as a "heavy user."

At some level this is a marketing opportunity for fiber-to-home networks that should be able to operate without such restrictions. At another level, "heavy users" probably are not profitable customers at this point. Not only do their subscription fees not cover their consumption of network resources, but they also create problems for other users.

Still, the longer-term issue is that the usage profile of a "heavy" user today becomes more like the "normal" usage profile at some point in the future, when most people use the Internet to watch video.

Long term, there is but one reasonable alternative: much more bandwidth for every user. In the near term, there are some serioius marketing issues to grapple with. Though the overwhelming percentage of users will never encounter the traffic shaping, the existence of such shaping then becomes a potential marketing drag for some, an opportunity for others.

But it is a complicated matter. In truth, competitors probably are happy "heavy" users are Comcast's problem, as such customers are not profitable, and in fact create externalities. It isn't just the stress on the access networks. Comcast pays transit fees for all those video bits. So higher usage really does impose usage-based costs.

This will be an interesting marketing challenge for Comcast and its competitors. Longer term, it also is a packaging and pricing challenge, since most users ultimately will wind up consuming lots more bandwidth as video becomes a staple of Internet activity.