Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Universal, Blockbuster Express to Test Earlier Movie Release Window

Universal Studios Home Entertainment movies will be available at Blockbuster Express kiosks 28 days after initial release in theaters, on the same days those new movies are made available for retail purchase, NCR Corp. and Universal Studios say.

The market test will attempt to assess whether the ability to rent a movie recently in theaters, about 30 days earlier than has been possible in the past, is valuable enough to entice consumers to pay extra.

The new premium release window will be tested at some Blockbuster DVD rental kiosks, and will test a higher price point, possibly about $3 for a one-day rental, compared to the $1 price point for movies available for rental using the standard DVD rental release window.

As part of the arrangement, Universal will directly supply NCR with new release DVD and Blu-ray titles effective immediately, beginning with "Robin Hood" and "Get Him to the Greek."

"By implementing a 28-day window agreement with NCR, we are able to provide consumers with what they want –additional access and options in movie rentals for some of Universal’s newest and most popular titles," said Craig Kornblau, president, Universal Studios Home Entertainment. "Our agreement to test premium day-and-date offers and new DVD sales will help us identify new outlets for our movies while giving our customers the flexibility and choice they want in their entertainment purchases."

Many content owners have, as you might guess, been unhappy with the $1 price point of Redbox rentals, arguing it devalues the product. The earlier release window offers a chance to move price points higher.

Is Digital Behavior Gap Growing?

Over time, differences in technology adoption across generations or between regions tend to close. So some might argue the differences between younger users and older users in the U.S. market suggest a gap is widening.

Others might argue the differences in adoption only mean older users are going to start using the same tools younger users favor.

Gen Y is particularly mobile savvy, Forrester Research notes. Some 85 percent of consumers in the Millennial demographic regularly send or receive text messages, compared with 57 percent of all US consumers over the age of 18.

About 27 percent of Millennials access social networks on their mobile devices (compared with 14 percent of all US consumers) and 37 percent of Millennials access the mobile Internet, compared with 23 percent of all US consumers.

I tend to think this means older demographics increasingly will adopt those behaviors as well. It seems to have happened with virtually all earlier online and mobile behaviors, and one would do well to bet with the historical trend, rather than against it.

Social Networking Grows, Content Creation Doesn't

Social networking continued to grow over the past year, but content creation did not, Forrester Research says.

The number of people who joined social networks increased by 11 percent in Europe, 18 percent in metro China, and 11 percent in Australia. By comparison, North America saw slightly less growth, with only an 8 percent increase.

On the other hand, between 2009 and 2010, no markets exhibited growth in the number of people who create social content.

"A lack of growth in social creation translates into a lack of fresh ideas, content, and perspectives," says Forrester Research Consumer Insights Analyst Jacqueline Anderson. "For example, one third of online consumers in the US regularly watch user-generated videos on sites like YouTube.

But, only 10 percent of US online consumers upload videos they've created to public sites. The traits required to create social content are unique, and at this moment, the consumer market interested in these behaviors has plateaued, Anderson says.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics


There has been lots of chatter about the degree of job creation over the past two or so years, with some observers commenting that the current administration is doing much better than the former presidential administration at creating jobs.

click on images for larger view.

The old adage--that there are lies, damn lies and statistics--applies here, for the careful. All the first graph shows is that there has been a steep and deep recession.


The claim that the current administration already has created more jobs than the former administration clearly is false. That would require foreknowledge of the actual rate of net job creation (new jobs minus lost jobs) for the entire year of 2010, and all we have now are projections.


If one assumes the current rate of job creation--290,000 net new jobs for the remainder of 2010--the net job loss since the start of January 2009 would be 1.8 million, the sum of 4.7 million lost jobs in 2009 and 2.9 million potential jobs created in 2010.

In other words, the number of net jobs during the current presidency during the period 2009 to 2010 would be a loss of 1.8 million.

The other Bureau of Labor Statistics shows job creation over a wider period of time. The years 2000 to 2008 were no picnic,showing a rate of job growth far lower than we had seen in prior decades. That suggests a structural change of some sort. But the data also suggest why the "jobs created" claims have to be seen over a broader time span.

link

Is Social Media a Fad?

Hardly anybody thinks so, but it is worth asking the question, I suppose.

IBM's view of the enterprise "data tsunami" or "exaflood"

IBM's view of the enterprise "data tsunami" or "exaflood."

Why Innovation is So Tough in the Communications Business

There are a ton of reasons why innovation is so difficult in the communications business.

"It won't work," "impossible requirements," "we can't do anything about it at the moment" and "business processes won't support it" are the broad categories within which you can probably imaging dozens of separate examples within each category.

The list of barriers is amusing and accurate, but also illustrates why highly-complex systems are resistant to desired innovation.

Is Windows Phone 7 Too Late?

Windows Phone 7 might have been a huge hit, says Matt Burns at CrunchGear. It might have been the true iPhone killer, says Burns. It might have even become the dominant mobile platform. But it won’t, Burns argues. It’s an iOS, Android and BlackBerry world now and there isn’t room for anyone else, he argues.

That's a challenge Microsoft simply has to overcome. There's at least one possible new angle here: Windows Phone 7 is optimized for communication, not apps. That’s a key difference. Where Apple is focused on apps, and Android on mobile Web, Windows Phone 7 arguably is focused on ease of communication.

That is a segment Windows Phone 7 could ride: a smartphone optimized for ease of communication, rather than apps or Web or email, video or conferencing.

Laptop, Netbook Sales Dip as Tablets Grow

Market researcher Gartner has trimmed its global forecasts for laptop shipments, but still expects a 26 percent increase to 214 million units this year. The firm says the average selling price of portable PCs has fallen six percent to $668 from $710 a year ago.

Netbooks likely have been affected. The Consumer Electronics Association predicts U.S. retail sales of netbooks, which more than doubled last year, will decline 12 percent this year.

What’s a CDMA iPhone Worth to Apple?

Adding a CDMA iPhone option (usable on Verizon Wireless and other networks), increases Apple’s addressable market for an iPhone by 16 percent, says Horace Dediu of asymco, a mobile research site.

The estimated sales of 10 million Verizon iPhones account for only two percent of that potential market, affording Apple a sizable opportunity to boost iPhone sales outside of the United States.

The CDMA Development Group reports that 164 million mobile phone subscribers in the U.S. use a CDMA handset. That number pales in comparison to the 302 million CDMA handset owners in the Asia-Pacific area, a region that, until recently, hasn’t seen huge demand for Apple’s smartphone.

To put that in perspective, Apple’s total revenues for the 2009 fiscal year were $36.5 billion.

Spanish Telecom Industry Revenue Shrinks

According to data released by Spanish telecom regulator CMT, the country’s telecoms revenues, including TV, stood at EUR9.7 billion (USD13.5 billion) for the second quarter of 2010, a 2.9 percent decline year-on-year but an improvement on the first quarter change, where sales fell 4.8 percent year-on-year.

Retail revenues accounted for 84 percent of the total, of which wireless services accounted for the largest proportion at 43 percent, while the figure was 18 percent for fixed line services, 15 percent for TV, 12 percent for internet, with the remainder comprising terminal sales and business services.

Granted, we are looking at just a couple of quarters of data, and just in one country. But slowing revenue growth, if not actual declines, seem] to be an issue in many regions. If nothing else, that suggests the importance of the search for new revenue categories. Do nothing, or nothing substantial, and decline is a likely outcome.

Best Buy App Store?

Now that Amazon is launching its own Android app store, Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn says Best Buy itself is open to the idea of entering the mobile apps space. It is conceptual at this point, but Google's willingness to go ahead would be crucial, Best Buy executives say.

Twitter: Advertising Could be the Business Model

Twitter started with just six advertisers and now has about 40, including Starbucks, Ford and Microsoft, says Twitter CEO Dick Costolo. Twitter expects to have more than 100 advertisers by the end of the year.

Last week, Twitter added three avenues of advertising. Promoted Accounts, which began immediately with Xbox and HBO, allows companies to pay Twitter to suggest that people follow their free Twitter accounts, based on shared interests.

Twitter also began publishing ads on Twitter apps, starting with HootSuite; before, ads had appeared only on Twitter’s Web site. Twitter will split the ad revenue evenly with HootSuite and the other companies that make apps.

Microsoft Plans Windows Mobile Ad Blitz

Microsoft might spend as much as $100 million to market its new Windows Mobile operating system.

Microsoft says the effort will be 'competitive' with Verizon's $100 million saturation campaign for Droid phones last year.

What is Different About the Past 2 Decades of Job Recovery?

Looking back several decades at job recovery from a recession, you would note that job growth, particularly in the foundational private sector, was robust in the 1970s and 1980s. Since then, private sector job growth has been anemic in recoveries. When you have a two-decade pattern such as that developing, one has to ask structural questions. What has changed in the last two decades, compared to the previous decades?

And, oh by the way, since we are looking at a two-decade sort of problem, it would be naive to suggest we can magically remedy the underlying problem or problems in a short period of time. Something other than "just a recession" seems to be happening. The issue is "what is happening?"

"Organized Religion" Arguably is the Cure, Not the Disease

Whether the “ Disunited States of America ” can be cured remains a question with no immediate answer.  But it is a serious question with eno...