Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

There has been lots of chatter about the degree of job creation over the past two or so years, with some observers commenting that the current administration is doing much better than the former presidential administration at creating jobs.

click on images for larger view.

The old adage--that there are lies, damn lies and statistics--applies here, for the careful. All the first graph shows is that there has been a steep and deep recession.


The claim that the current administration already has created more jobs than the former administration clearly is false. That would require foreknowledge of the actual rate of net job creation (new jobs minus lost jobs) for the entire year of 2010, and all we have now are projections.


If one assumes the current rate of job creation--290,000 net new jobs for the remainder of 2010--the net job loss since the start of January 2009 would be 1.8 million, the sum of 4.7 million lost jobs in 2009 and 2.9 million potential jobs created in 2010.

In other words, the number of net jobs during the current presidency during the period 2009 to 2010 would be a loss of 1.8 million.

The other Bureau of Labor Statistics shows job creation over a wider period of time. The years 2000 to 2008 were no picnic,showing a rate of job growth far lower than we had seen in prior decades. That suggests a structural change of some sort. But the data also suggest why the "jobs created" claims have to be seen over a broader time span.

link