Twitter Illustrates Pareto Distribution

The "long tail" distribution is a standard Pareto distribution, popularly thought of as the "80/20" rule, where a disproportionate share of just about anything comes from a fraction of the causes.

Twitter followers in December 2010 show a clear Pareto distribution, as do people that Twitter users "follow."

The clear implication for things such as market share in any sphere of business will also have a Pareto distribution.

The implications for businesses and organizations that use Twitter as a social tool is that, in all likelihood, modest expectations should be watchword. It is highly unlikely most companies and organizations will ever appear at the head of the tail. Those spots normally are held by celebrities of one sort or another.

That isn't a reason not to use Twitter, just a reminder to be realistic about expectations.

Stuxnet an Instance of Cyber War?

Damage from the Stuxnet virus has apparently set back the Iranian nuclear program by as much as two years, according to a German security expert interviewed by the Jerusalem Post, and may be an instance of cyber warfare.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=199475

Stuxnet is a Windows-specific computer worm first discovered in July 2010 by a security firm based in Belarus, according to Wikipedia. While it is not the first time that hackers have targeted industrial systems, it is the first discovered worm that spies on and reprograms industrial systems.

It is said to have been specifically written to attack Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition systems used to control and monitor industrial processes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

Stuxnet includes the capability to reprogram Programmable Logic Controllers and hide its changes.The worm's probable target is said to have been high value infrastructures in Iran using Siemens control systems.

Stuxnet apparently as effective as a military strike

Will 2011 Be Decisive for Clearwire?

Among the wireless issues to watch in 2011 is what happens with Clearwire. Though in principle the company could go bankrupt if it does not raise some billions of additional funding later in 2011, a more-reasonable bet might be some "change of control" event.

Clearwire could, in principle, be bought, merge with another firm or perhaps even become a firm without a full national footprint. The last option would be complicated, but might involve Clearwire selling off assets in markets it has not built, or finished building, to another firm that would finish the construction. That would seem the least likely of all outcomes, though.

Seybold's Take: What's ahead for wireless in 2011? - FierceWireless

Mobile Charges Based on Time and Apps?

In principle, there is no reason broadband access plans cannot be created for a few favored applications, perhaps Facebook, for example. Jonathon Gordon, Allot Networks marketing director, sees no reason why mobile operators could not create such plans, much as they offer specific plans for text messaging, rather than full access to the mobile web.

Application-focused packages might allow users to buy more-modest mobile broadband plans specifically oriented to a few, or just one, lead application.

Coming: Mobile Charges Based on Time and Apps - BusinessWeek

Mobile Commerce Cuts Both Ways

Retailers and others in the mobile ecosystem think mobile commerce has lots of potential, in lots of different ways. But mobile commerce cuts two ways. It might prove advantageous for retailers in some ways, and a bit of a threat in other ways.

Until recently, retailers could reasonably assume that if they just lured shoppers to stores with enticing specials, the customers could be coaxed into buying more profitable products as well. The "loss leader" technique perhaps does not work so well when a shopper can do price comparisons using a mobile device, while still inside a store.

Now, marketers must contend with shoppers who can use their smartphones inside stores to check whether the specials are really so special, and if the rest of the merchandise is reasonably priced.

'The retailer's advantage has been eroded,' says Greg Girard of consultancy IDC Retail Insights, which recently found that roughly 45 percent of customers with smartphones had used them to perform due diligence on a store's prices.

Phone-Wielding Shoppers Strike Fear Into Retailers - WSJ.com (subscription required)

MMS Campaigns Get Most Views on Verizon

About 37 percent of multimedia messaging service ads sent out during the third quarter of 2010 were viewed on the Verizon Wireless network, Mogreet says. About 31 percent were viewed on the AT&T network.

T-Mobile got 13 percent of views, while Sprint users represented 11 percent of views. Perhaps the results are not too surprising, as Verizon has the most customers, overall, followed by AT&T. Given that Apple iPhone users tend to view the most mobile display ads, though, the findings suggest that user behavior on other devices is significantly different. MMS might be a way to reach users of other devices with rich media or graphically-oriented messages.

Mogreet Releases Q3 2010 Mobile Marketing Analytics Report

T-Mobile USA, Nokia Siemens Networks Working on 650 Mbps HSPA

Mobile service providers would be able to achieve peak data rates of more than 650 megabits per second using a proposed HSPA standard supported by T-Mobile USA and Nokia Siemens Networks.

"Long Term HSPA Evolution" would improve mobile broadband with speeds matching those promised by LTE Advanced. T-Mobile USA and Nokia Siemens Networks are driving the technology’s standardization aiming to make it available for commercial deployment by 2013.

The proposed standard would boost bandwidth by allowing use of multiple frequency bands, creating larger channels and hence faster access. The standard might give T-Mobile USA, for example, more opportunity to upgrade its existing HSPA+ network for faster speeds, without requiring a switch to LTE Advanced.

Still, T-Mobile USA might require more spectrum, some of which it might be able to reclaim from frequencies now used to support voice operations on its GSM ntworks.

T-Mobile USA, Nokia Siemens Networks drive evolution of HSPA | Nokia Siemens Networks

Does iPhone Increase or Decrease U.S. Trade Imbalance?

Trade policy occasionally erupts with charges of "jobs exported" and larger trade imbalances. The charge is no less made of high-technology products than for manufactured goods.

If trade statistics were adjusted to reflect the actual value contributed to a product by different countries, the size of the U.S. trade deficit with China—$226.88 billion, according to U.S. figures—would be cut in half, some researchers argue.

Tech Supply Chain Exposes Limits of Trade Metrics - WSJ.com (subscription required)

Enterprises Adopting iPads

About seven percent of corporate respondents surveyed by ChangeWave now say their company provides employees with Tablet devices, up about one percentage point since ChangeWave's previous survey in August.

The Apple iPad (82 percent) remains by far the most popular tablet for business purposes. H-P has 11 percent share and Dell has seven percent share.

As with other Apple products, the iPad’s satisfaction ratings are outstanding, with 69 percent of corporate users saying their company is very satisfied and another 28 percent somewhat satisfied with the Apple device.

The larger point is that tablet devices, lead by the iPad are finding a home in enterprises very quickly. The ChangeWave survey also suggests that enterprise adoption could double, to 14 percent, over the next quarter.

About 73 percent of respondents say the iPads are used for Internet access, while 69 percent report they are used for checking email. About 67 percent report that iPads get used for work away from the office.

Sales support is an application used by 46 percent of respondents, while 45 percent use iPads for customer presentations. In about 38 percent of respondents say iPads are used for laptop replacement.

ChangeWave survey - apple ipad tablet demand | InvestorPlace

Why Enterprises Move Apps into the Cloud

"Business agility" is the reason 65 percent of 140 surveyed enterprise information technology professionals give for desiring virtualization and cloud projects.

But cost savings are the second most important reason for moving at least some applications into the cloud. Competitive advantage also is seen as a top driver for such moves.

read the study here

Triple Play and Broadband Pricing: The Assumptions Always Matter

Methodology matters when any researcher attempts to make a cross-nation comparison of TV, voice or broadband access value and spending. For example, when trying to determine whether consumer prices are up, down or flat, and looking at either stand-alone or bundled service packages, the assumptions make all the difference.

A new study by the Technology Policy Institute, for example, finds that U.S. broadband prices are relatively steady.

 Researchers Scott Wallsten, TPI VP and James L. Riso, TPI senior fellow, studied about 25,000 wireline broadband plans across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries as part of their analysis.

Overall, quality-adjusted prices remained relatively constant from 2007 to 2009, they find.

Prices for standalone broadband plans in the U.S. are approximately in the middle of the range of prices across OECD countries. Prices for triple play plans in the U.S. are among the highest in the OECD. And while residential prices have on the whole remained constant in the U.S. they have been declining in most other countries.

read the full study here.

The study also compared quality-adjusted broadband prices across countries and over time, and found that
U.S. standalone broadband plans (plans not bundled with voice or video services) compare favorably to other OECD countries, but that U.S. prices for triple play (plans bundled with voice and video) packages and very-fast broadband connections tend to be higher than those in other OECD countries. In addition, while residential prices have remained unchanged in the U.S., they have been falling in most other OECD countries, the study found.

One might argue that the triple-play prices are subject to the assumptions one makes. By definition, a triple-play bundle includes three products at one price, so an analyst has to attribute component prices to each of the constituent products.

Indeed, the researchers caution that the results must be viewed carefully. "The figures must be interpreted cautiously," the report says. The raw prices do not immediately translate into meaningful observations about the real world for at least two reasons, say Wallsten and Riso.

"First, the number of plans in a given country will affect the median and range of prices in that country," they say. "These simple summary statistics assume all of a country’s plans are equally important and representative, which is not the case."

Plans often are available to subsets of a country’s population of varying size, and the popularity of different plans differs even when they are available to the same population. "Notably, existing studies and sources of data on prices suffer from this problem: the prices they report may be based on plans that are not those to which consumers typically subscribe." In other words, the study deals with published rates, and not with the percentages of consumers who may be buying various plans.

Also, the plan data does not account for contracts and data caps, which makes simple comparisons difficult.

The other issue, when looking at triple play pricing, is that if prices for the other constituent services--voice and video--vary significantly, the triple play packages will reflect, to a large extent, those pricing differentials. And most observers might note that U.S. video entertainment packages cost more than equivalent services in most other markets. See study  here for a comparison of multichannel TV spending in variious countries.

The point is that all such cross-country studies are highly dependent on the assumptions and methodology used.

Few U.S. Consumers Buy 25-Mbps Services

It appears there is almost no U.S. consumer buying of the highest-speed broadband access services, according to Federal Communications Commission data.

Of services offering 25 Mbps or more bandwidth, business buyers register something on the order of two percent of total broadband subscriptions.

Consumer take rates are low enough not to register on the graph. One might argue that take rates for the higher tiers among consumers are so low only because the 25 Mbps services are not available in most markets. That's true. See http://ipcarrier.blogspot.com/2010/12/us-broadband-access-not-as-bad-as-some.html.

But even where such services are available, take rates remain quite low. Low enough, in fact, that U.S,. service providers never disclose the numbers.

Enterprise Social Software Revenue to Surpass $769 Million in 2011

Enterprises are getting more "social," so global enterprise social software revenue is on pace to total $664.4 million in 2010, a 14.9 percent increase from 2009 revenue of $578.2 million, according to Gartner researchers. That's not a huge amount of spending on a global basis, but does indicate changing enterprise requirements.

The market is poised for continued growth in 2011 when revenue is forecast to reach $769.2 million, up 15.7 percent from 2010.

Enterprise social software enables participation through formal and informal interactions. Technologies include blogs, communities, discussion forums, expertise location, feeds and syndication, social bookmarks, wikis, and integrated platforms/suites.

Gartner Says Worldwide Enterprise Social Software Revenue to Surpass $769 Million in 2011

Smartphones Will Replace Your Wallet, in Some Cases

Samsung’s Nexus S, the first NFC-enabled Android phone, will be on sale at Best Buy starting December 16; Nokia has announced that all of its Smartphones starting in 2011 will support NFC; and Apple recently hired an NFC expert.

Jeff Miles, the director of mobile transactions worldwide at NXP Semiconductors, which co-invented NFC with Sony in 2002, says he expects more than 70 million NFC-capable handsets to be manufactured in 2011.

“As far as what will happen with it, who owns the keys and all of that, none of that has really been determined,” Miles says.

Technology does not automatically create habits and markets, of course, but we are about to see what can be done with transaction-enabled smartphones.

Why Your Smartphone Will Replace Your Wallet

Browsing for a cause: like this

http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/15/if-youre-a-good-person-or-a-web-browsing-fiend-download-this-chrome-extension-now/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29