Is The Second Dotcom Bubble Underway?

Some would argue there are 10 tell-tale signs that a technology bubble is building. Insert "social networking" for "New Thing," for example.

You can make your own decisions about how well the logic works for "cloud computing," "mobile payments" or "tablet computing." So far, by my reckoning, those other trends have not yet created "bubble" logic, but could. Keep in mind that the last Internet bubble, which began in 1995 or 1996, actually was a couple of bubbles, both Internet and telecom. It is possible there were be a couple of bubbles this time, if in fact a bubble is building.

But it also is fair to note that bubbles build because people really believe something "really big" will result.

1. The arrival of a “New Thing” that cannot be valued in the old way. Dumb-money companies start paying over the odds for New Thing acquisitions.

2. Smart people identify the start of a bubble; New Thing apostles make ever more glowing claims.

3. Startups with founders deemed to have “pedigree” (for example, former employees of New Thing companies) get funded at eye-watering valuations for next to no reason.

4. There is a flurry of new investment funds catering for startups.

5. Companies start getting funded “off the slide deck” (that is, purely on the basis of their PowerPoint presentations) without actually having a product.

6. MBAs leave banks to start up firms.

7. The “big flotation” happens.

8. Banks make a market in the New Thing, investing pension money.

9. Taxi drivers start giving you advice on what stock to buy.

10. A New Thing darling buys an old-world company for stupid money. The end is nigh.

Is The Second Dotcom Bubble Underway? Ten Telltale Signs | paidContent

Is iIt 1996 All Over Again?

Some entrepreneurs now starting mobile app and other firms were in primary school in 1996, when a wave of Internet innovation built, culminating in a great bubble and bust in 2001.

But there are ample enough signs that a decade later, we are likely seeing another great wave of innovation.

Will mobile applications and the technologies that support them change the way people communicate, get information and do business to the degree that the web did starting in 1996?

Some think so. Others are likely reminding themselves what happened last time.

For Mobile Apps, It’s 1996 All Over Again

Twitter Conflict with 3rd-Party Developers Heats Up

Twitter has recently been squeezing third-party developers since 2010, when it began buying and internalizing formerly independent applications that build on Twitter, and arguably making it harder for third parties to provide important functions Twitter believes are "core" features.

In that regard, Twitter recently shut off access to its service by several Twitter client applications provided by UberMedia. UberTwitter, Twidroyd, and UberCurrent were shut off from Twitter, said Bill Gross, CEO of UberMedia.

There are limits to "openness," it appears.

Statement from UberMedia Regarding Twitter’s Suspension of Service to UberTwitter, Twidroyd and UberCurrent | Business Wire

Mobile Hotspot an Early "New" 4G Application and Revenue Driver

Though the feature also is becoming something more common on 3G networks, the "mobile hotspot" feature has become an early "4G" application differentiated from what 3G has offered in the past. As important as 3G "PC dongles" have been as a driver of mobile broadband revenue for mobile service providers, the 4G mobile hotspot seems to play a similar role for 4G. 

You can argue about whether a mobile hotspot is markedly different from a PC dongle, but there is one important difference. A mobile hotspot eliminates the need to buy a tablet from a particular carrier. Just buy the tablet you want, get the Wi-Fi-only version, and use the mobile hotspot for on-the-go connections in the same way that a PC dongle can be used to support on-the-go notebook service. 

Sprint to Add LTE in its CDMA Spectrum?

Neither Sprint nor Clearwire executives have been too shy about saying they both could switch to Long Term Evolution for fourth-generation services, rather than using the WiMAX platform. In fact, if either firm wants to benefit from LTE ecosystem experience curves, they would have to. It is a foregone conclusion that the LTE ecosystem, from base station solutions to handsets, is going to eclipse the WiMAX ecosystem in relatively short order.

But network transitions of that sort can be messy in the interim, as the operator has to continue to support existing users and devices that operate on the older platform, while adding new users to the next-generation platform. If Sprint intends to shift to LTE on its fully-owned spectrum, that means adding LTE to the network now running CDMA.

Clearwire has other options, as it can light a separate LTE network alongside its existing WiMAX network.

In an interim period, while lots of users continue to use CDMA gear, Sprint would likely introduce new devices that support both CDMA and LTE. There are some cost considerations, but it is an approach mobile operators and suppliers are quite familiar with.

That move would need to be made at some point even as Sprint continues to use Clearwire facilities, as the CDMA network itself will have to be entirely replaced at some point by a 4G solution.

Sprint Looks Poised to Enter an LTE Future - PCWorld

Intuit Extends GoPayment No Monthly Fee and Free Credit Card Reader Offer

Intuit has extended its offer of GoPayment, its credit card processing service for mobile devices, with a free credit card reader and no monthly fee.

Intuit first offered GoPayment with a free credit card reader and no monthly fee in early January. Due to a high level of demand, Intuit will continue the offer indefinitely so that the smallest of small businesses, such as dog walkers, nannies and jewelry makers, can affordably start processing credit cards on their mobile phones. Since the initial offer, Intuit has more than tripled the number of customers signing up for GoPayment each day.

Intuit Extends GoPayment No Monthly Fee and Free Credit Card Reader Offer

Unintended Consequences of "Consumer Protection"

Debit card transaction fees charged by debit card issuers to retailers would decline by about $12 billion under provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The law contains an amendment appended by Senator Richard Durbin, (D-IL) that sharply limits the fees debit card issuers can charge to retailers for use of those cards. Some have estimated losses of about $12 billion annually to card issuers, with the logical consequence that those institutions will raise fees and charges for other services to recoup the lost revenue.

The law sounds good, to some, as it promises lower transaction costs for retailers, who some believe might pass some of the savings along to consumers. Those of you who follow business to any extent will realize the logical unintended consequence, however. Debit card-issuing firms are not simply going to take a $12 billion hit to top-line revenue, but will look elsewhere to recoup those losses. And end to "free checking" and higher fees, plus new fees, will be the unintended consequence.

The rules will allow some legislators to posture about "doing something to help consumers and retailers." What also will happen is that consumers will find themselves paying additional costs elsewhere, wiping out the "savings." No rational executive running a debit card operation would do any less.

Assuming the losses can be recouped over time, one also has to expect job losses and less-generous working conditions and compensation. The $12 billion revenue hit will be immediate; the replacement revenues will take time to create. In the interim, costs will have to be attacked. So the other "unintended consequence" will be job losses.

Top 10 Mobile Trends of 2010

Location, social and mobile commerce are among the top-10 mobile trends of 2010, says comScore. Location-based check-in services like Foursquare, Gowalla and Facebook Places have begun to gain consumer adoption. Other GPS-enabled apps like Google Maps and Garmin have also proved to be among the most popular and widely downloaded.

Social media also has become one of the most prevalent and fastest-growing activities on the mobile phone. In the United States the number of mobile social media users grew 56 percent to lead all content categories, and in the United Kingdom Facebook accounts for 40 percent of all time spent on mobile sites.

Mobile commerce, especially related to “mobile wallet” functions, also is among the top-10 trends.

Top 10 Mobile Trends of 2010: Highlights from comScore’s Mobile Year in Review (comScore Voices)

EBay Says Retailers Want PayPal for Mobile In-Store Payments

"Offline retailers are knocking on eBay Inc.’s door and asking its PayPal unit to provide an in-store payment alternative to credit cards and debit cards, the company’s chief executive said Wednesday.

CEO John Donahoe added that eBay is working to develop device-agnostic solutions that will enable consumers to pay for goods in stores using PayPal accounts linked to their cell phones, tablets or other mobile devices.

“Merchants are beating down the door saying: ‘We want to migrate customers to non-card solutions’,” said Donahoe during a question-and-answer session at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference in San Francisco."

PayPal has been offering some ways to make mobile payments since at least 2009.

EBay CEO John Donahoe Says Offline Merchants Interested in PayPal - Digits - WSJ

Antitrust Issues for Apple's Subscription Service?

The U.S. Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission apparently are looking at Apple's new subscription service as having potential antitrust issues, but the investigation is at an early stage, and might not develop into either a formal investigation or any action against the company, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Apple's terms for the new content subscription service require companies that sell digital subscriptions to content on Apple devices also make it available for sale at the company's iTunes App Store at the best available price.

Apple also would prohibit media companies' apps from linking to stores outside its App Store or from offering better terms to subscribers elsewhere, making it difficult for them to attract buyers to their own sites. Legal experts say some of those rules could pose antitrust problems.

Groupon Super Bowl Ads Don't Hurt Traffic

Traffic data from Hitwise suggests Groupon's Super Bowl ads have failed to hurt the group-buying platform in its battle with LivingSocial.

Groupon had been hemorrhaging traffic to LivingSocial for weeks leading up to the days before the Super Bowl. The Chicago-based group-buying platform lost nearly 23 percentage points of market share, while LivingSocial gained 14. Part of each brand's respective skid and rise had to do with LivingSocial's mid-January $20-for-$10 Amazon deal, which sold 1,301,296 vouchers.

But for the week ending Feb. 5, 2011Groupon grabbed back seven percentage points from LivingSocial. And while last week Groupon (7.7 million unique visitors) dipped by 1.5 percentage points as people complained about its TV spots, its Washington, DC-based competitor (1.9 million) experienced a similar slip.

Exclusive Data: Groupon Unscathed By Super Bowl Fallout | ClickZ

Clearwire Adds 1.4 Million Wholesale, 0.13 Million Retail Customers

Clearwire says it added 1.4 million wholesale customers in the latest quarter, and 126,000 retail customers. That should tell you much about why Sprint has argued Clearwire needs to finish building its network, not squander resources on its retail business. Assuming Clearwire and Sprint can end their dispute about revenues Sprint pays to Clearwire in areas where the 4G network is not even available, Clearwire might have a shot at boosting its gross revenue.

Clearwire eyes end to Sprint fight | Reuters

6% Annual Telecom Revenue Growth to 2014

The worldwide telecoms market will grow from $1.8 trillion in 2009 to $2.4 trillion in 2014, at a six-percent compound annual growth rate, says Analysys Mason.

Mobile data services will continue be the main engine of growth, offsetting the continued rapid decline of wireline voice revenues. Mobile voice revenue is forecast to grow at a six-percent CAGR, but the revenue from non-messaging data will grow at 21 percent, while messaging revenue will grow at 12 percent.

New business models based on mobile data are needed to drive growth worldwide

Durbin Amendment Hearing Appears to Lean Industry's Way

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act contains an amendment appended by
Senator Richard Durbin, D-IL that sharply limits the fees debit card issuers can charge to retailers for use of those cards. Some have estimated losses of about $12 billion annually to card issuers, with the logical consequence that those institutions will raise fees and charges for other services to recoup the lost revenue.

Senator Durbin’s language, in its final form, directs the Federal Reserve to issue rules limiting the revenue that large financial institutions can receive in connection with debit transactions and governing how debit transactions get routed from merchants to financial institutions and back again.

Although Senator Durbin managed to append his language to the Dodd-Frank Act without a single hearing, on Thursday, “Durbin” came up in hearings in both chambers of Congress. Some think the hearings are part of building pressure to limit the damage.

A Day Makes A Difference- “Durbin” The Day After

Get Paid Where You Are, Intuit Says