Thursday, April 7, 2011

Smartphone subsidies hit Canadian mobile profit margins

While rising smart phone penetration has led to higher average revenue per user, and increased mobile data revenue at the three main Canadian operators (Bell Mobility, Telus Mobility and Rogers Wireless), a Wireless Intelligence study found that, in most cases, operational expenses also have increased, resulting in a contraction of profit margins (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).

Opex costs are higher in large part because of increased handset subsidy costs for new smart phone customers and retention of existing customers who upgrade to smart phones.

That might not be the case in markets where handsets are not subsidized, typically in exchange for a two-year contract.

The study suggests s that the cost of acquisition per subscriber at Bell rose 13.4 percent between 2009 and 2010 and by 3.9 percent at Telus over the same period. There were similar trends in retention spending, which (as a percentage of service revenue) increased by 2.4 percentage points at Bell and 0.7 percentage points at Telus year-on-year, and by 7 percentage points at Rogers in Q4 2010. Opex also increased at all three operators during the period.

Mobile Financial Services Up 54%

comScore Reasons Why People Don't Use Mobile BankingThe report found that In the fourth quarter of 2010, 29.8 million Americans accessed financial services accounts (bank, credit card, or brokerage) using their mobile device, an increase of 54 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009, according to comScore.

Some 18.6 million users accessed their financial accounts via mobile browser in Q4 2010, up 58 percent from the previous year, 10.8 million accessed their accounts via applications, up 120 percent. SMS (text message) represented the smallest access point for financial service audiences with 8.1 million users, up 35 percent.


Mobile Financial Service Audience (Accessed Bank, Credit Card or Brokerage Account)
3 Month Avg. Ending Dec-2010 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Dec-2009
Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers Ages 13+
Source: comScore MobiLens
Total Unique Audience (MM)
Q4 2009Q4 2010Percent Change
Accessed Mobile Financial Services*19.329.854%
Accessed via Mobile Browser11.818.658%
Accessed via Application4.910.8120%
Accessed via SMS6.08.135%

Will Hotspots Kill LTE?

For as long as public Wi-Fi has been an issue, some have argued that public Wi-Fi would compete with 3G mobile broadband. These days, that same argument might be made about Wi-Fi cannibalizing fourth generation networks as well.

"With most of the public WiFi hotspots in the U.K. being offered by fixed operators, there is a potential value shift from mobile to fixed networks," says Telco 2.0. "As the hotspots grow and critically, once they become interconnected, there is an increasing risk to mobile operators in terms of the value of investment in expensive ‘4G’ and LTE spectrum."

It's just a guess at the moment, but I suspect the concern about cannibalization will be no more correct for 4G than it has proven to be for 3G. Wi-Fi used to be a radio tail to a fixed line network. These days, it might also be a radio tail to a radio network (mobile hotspot). There will continue to be application scenarios for fixed access, fixed access using a radio tail circuit, fully mobile broadband and untethered but not mobile access.

People will use "all of the above." In some markets, where a smartphone purchase also requires a minimal data plan, that will be even more true.

Infrastructure as a Service $10.5 Billion in 2014

Cloud infrastructure as a service (IaaS) is more likely to be purchased by an enterprise, while small businesses are more likely to buy "applications as a service." Still, the market for all types of cloud services is seminal. Today there is no standard, "one size fits all" offering and no single provider successfully addresses all segments of the market, according to Gartner. That is what one would expect in a new market.

Worldwide IaaS revenues were about $3.7 billion in 2011 and will reach $10.5 billion in 2014, Gartner now forecasts.

"We are still at the beginning of the adoption cycle for cloud compute IaaS," said Lydia Leong, Gartner research VP.

Cloud IaaS is the capability provided to the consumer to provision processing, storage, networks and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Dish to Compete with Netflix?

YouTube to Create Channels

YouTube is getting ready to launch new "channels" featuring premium content, around topics such as arts and sports. YouTube is looking to introduce 20 or so "premium channels" that would each feature five to 10 hours of professionally-produced original programming a week.
YoutTube also is planning to spend as much as $100 million to commission the creation of original content for the premium channels.

Plan to Address LightSquared GPS Interference Issues Due June 15

Signal interference issues are not uncommon for any services using over-the-air spectrum. LightSquared, as part of its waiver to operate a hybrid satellite and terrestrial 4G network, has to work with other users of satellite spectrum that could face interference from the planned LightSquared network.

The Pentagon is among users concerned about LightSquared interference with GPS applications, for example.

The LightSquared L-Band terrestrial base stations broadcast on the adjacent frequency to the GPS satellites. The worry is that the much stronger signals from the earthbound LTE radios will stop terrestrial GPS receivers from locking on to the weaker signals from space. That is a well-founded concern.

By June 15, 2011, a working group report on such interference and how LightSquared will address the issues must be submitted. Typically, such interference issues are rectified using frequency filters or adjusting power levels or both. It might be difficult to reduce transmitting power from a terrestrial cell site enough to avoid interference with relatively-weak GPS signals, though. So filtering would seem to be the logical solution.

When Rick Short, director of marketing communications for Indium Corporation, began thinking about his social media strategy, he started with keyword research. He identified 73 of the most important keywords his prospective customers would search for. Then he created 73 different blogs that focused on each keyword and assigned a dozen employees to write those blogs.

Once the blogs took off, customer contacts increased 600 percent in a single quarter. And everyone who contacted a blog author, commented on a blog post or downloaded a white paper opted in to the company’s customer database.

Not many companies can, or will, make that level of commitment. But the results are instructive.

9 in 10 Marketers Use Social Media

socmedia-mktg-time-commitment-apr-2011.JPGSome 93 percent of marketers use social media to market their businesses, according to a new survey from SocialMedia Examiner. About half of marketers engaging in social networking (49 percent) have less than one year of social media marketing experience. Another 39 percent have been using it for one to three years, with 11 percent having more than three years of experience and only two percent having no experience.

In addition, study data indicates more business-to-business companies have been using social media longer (52.6 percent reported one year or more) than their business-to-consumer counterparts (46.2 percent indicated one year or longer of usage).

In 2010, only 31 percent of marketers were using social media for one or more years. Now that number has grown to 50 percent.

Speeds and Feeds Might Still Matter, for Marketing 4G

"Speeds and feeds" have ceased to be much of a deal in the mobile handset, tablet and PC markets. "What you can do" with any device seems to have become more important. But there still is one area where "speeds and feeds" seem to matter, at least in terms of marketing platforms: 4G networks.

BTIG Research conducted more than 1,000 speed tests in New York City to determine which was faster: the ThunderBolt, running on Verizon Wireless’ 4G LTE network, or the EVO 4G, running on Sprint’s 4G WiMAX network, both operated in mobile hotspot mode.

The analyst found that Verizon’s offering was consistently and significantly faster than Sprint’s 4G phone. Sprint disagrees, arguing that its own third-party tests in New York do not support the BTIG results, and also that a lightly-loaded network, as the new Verizon LTE network is, will tend to perform better than a network loaded with a fair number of users and devices.

In truth, typical users might not benefit or suffer from any of the U.S. 4G networks all that much, since the end user experience is dependent on lots of things other than the raw capabilities of the local access connection.

5.5 Million More WiMAX Users in 2011

About 3.7 million new WiMAX or other fixed broadband subscribers were added in the fourth quarter of 2010, and 5.5 million will be added throughout 2011, according to Maravedis. The subscriber base for WiMAX and LTE reached 17.25 million and 320,000 respectively at the end of March 2011. The WiMAX subscriber increase represents a 32.7 percent jump quarter-over-quarter, from 13 million reported at the end of the fourth quarter 2010.

Maravedis anticipates that 59 FDD-LTE and 3 LTE TDD networks will be operational worldwide by the end of this year. 'There will be 305 million LTE subscribers by 2016, of which 14 percent, or 44 million, will be TD-LTE users and the rest (86 percent, or 261 million) will be FDD-LTE.

Deutsche Telekom Uses LTE as a DSL Substitute

Observers often disagree about the extent to which Long Term Evolution or other 4G networks are feasible alternatives to fixed-line broadband access networks. Deutsche Telekom apparently will do precisely that, lighting an LTE network and using it in fixed mode to provide broadband access to fixed locations.

will use this initial LTE network rollout to offer a DSL replacement-type service to areas of the country where there is poor broadband coverage. The service offers speeds up to 3 Mbps on the downlink and up to 500 kbps on the uplink. The monthly charge for the service is €39.50 (US$56.60) with a minimum contract length of 24 months. A Wi-Fi/LTE router from Huawei can be rented for €4.95 (US$7) per month.

Local Online Ad Business Has Changed

The economic downturn over the past three years has forged a new landscape for local online media, according to Borrell Associates.  The slice of land held by the Internet“pure-plays” has stopped growing, and has stabilized at about half of the market. The biggest online entities also have increasingly formed partnerships with local newspapers, TV, radio and directories.

Newspapers still tend to generate the most money from an online venture in a given market. But for the first time, the pure-plays, principally Autotrader.com and the upstart Groupon, are the top providers in about 20 percent of the markets. Groupon, which didn’t exist two years ago, is already siphoning off hundreds of thousands of dollars in many markets and several million dollars in some. Both entities might wind up in the top position in more markets this year as Autotrader aims for 40 percent growth this year and Groupon seems bound for threefold growth.

TV stations and yellow pages companies continue to do well with about 11 percent share each, up from the past year. Radio stations, meanwhile, are languishing at a two percent share of all locally spent Internet advertising and appear to be barely treading water.

The future should be even more interesting as yet another disruptor — mobile media — emerges. Without mobile injecting new excitement into the “online” landscape, the traditional PC-based World Wide Web would likely see its ad revenues flat by now, having reached maturity.

In 2010, local online media accounted for 14.9 percent of all local ad spending, or $13.5 billion. Borrell forecasts growth to $15.9 billion this year, or 17.8 percent more. By 2015, for the first time ever, the firm expects newspapers to be toppled as the perennial king of local as online media reach $24 billion, for a 22.7 percent share of all local advertising.

Marketing the Way We Do it These Days: Mobile is the New Online

Mobile and Display Top Marketer Spending Priorities

At least some marketers are pushing for more display and mobile advertising time according to a recent survey by Bizo. The survey finds that most marketers believe display and mobile options are their best chance to engage and convert consumers. In fact, many will spend more on display ads in 2011 than they did in 2010.

Bizo-Online-Marketer-Survey

Is Private Equity "Good" for the Housing Market?

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