Both Research in Motion and Nokia will "Disappear" in 2013, Analyst Says

Research In Motion and Nokia will not exist in 2013, according to 24/7 Wall St.  Five years ago, RIM was the only smartphone company of any size, and it had almost the entire corporate market. But it made a fatal mistake in failing to adapt its technology for consumer use. 


RIM once owned the smartphone market. Its BlackBerry products were used largely by businesses. It is hardly worth repeating the story of how RIM was late to the consumer market, where it has been pounded relentlessly by Apple and an army of Google Android phones from manufacturers as diverse as China’s HTC, South Korea’s Samsung and Motorola in the U.S. 


The pace at which the company fell apart was even more extraordinary than its rise, says Douglas McIntyre of 24/7 Wall Street. Revenue and net income jumped from $6 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, in fiscal 2008 to $20 billion and $3.4 billion in fiscal 2011.


But research group NPD recently reported that RIM’s U.S. market share was 44 percent in 2009 but only 10 percent in 2011. 

RIM cannot survive as a standalone operation, McIntyre believes, a view that probably now represents the overwhelming consensus of industry watchers. 



In Nov. 2011, Ericsson sold its half of the Sony Ericsson mobile phone business, but surviving provider Sony now faces a smart phone industry dominated by Apple and Google’s Android. 


Nokia likewise will fail, he argues, though some would say Microsoft's backing might make a difference. 

Mobile Broadband Growth Dwarfs Fixed Access

By the end of 2011, six million U.S. households will depend on a wireless or mobile platform (including 3G or 4G) as their only means of accessing the Internet, according to Strategy Analytics. 

 That means seven percent of U.S. homes are wireless-only for broadband, up about 430,000 homes over 2010 levels. 

 These “mobile-only” customers typically connect to broadband using 3G or 4G-enabled smartphones or PC dongles, and are unable or unwilling to use a wired broadband service such as cable, DSL or fiber, Strategy Analytics says.

Nearly half of all adults (47 percent) go online with a laptop using a Wi-Fi connection or mobile broadband card (up from the 39 percent who did so as of April 2009) while 40 percent of adults use the internet, email or instant messaging on a mobile phone (up from the 32 percent of Americans who did this in 2009), the Pew Internet and American Life Project reported in 2010.

Since then, mobile Internet access has grown, especially among minority Americans.  But the trend is increasingly common, for lots of people.

When asked what device they normally use to access the internet, 25 percent of all smart phone owners say that they mostly go online using their phone, rather than with a computer.

While many of these individuals have other sources of online access at home, roughly one third of these "cell mostly" Internet users lack a high-speed home broadband connection, Pew researchers say.

In other words, about eight percent of broadband users might rely exclusively on mobile broadband (a third of the respondents who “mostly” rely on mobile broadband).

Smart Phones are Changing the Gaming Business

Smart phones are changing the broadband Internet access business, the computing appliance business and the software business. Now smart phones seem also to be changing the gaming business. 

Browse more Gaming infographics.

How Big Will Mobile Payments Business Be in 2012?

Predicting how much new revenue can be created in any new business, even one expected to be quite large, in an exercise in assumptions. One has to estimate the volume of activity, and then the revenue for each action, to derive an estimate for total industry revenue. Mobile payments are no exception.


Worldwide mobile payment transaction values will surpass $171.5 billion in 2012, a 61.9 percent increase from 2011 values of $105.9 billion, according to Gartner. 


To illustrate what that could mean in terms of payment transaction fees, if all those gross purchases produced a 1.75 percent transaction fee for a transaction provider, a revenue stream of about $3 billion would result.

The number of mobile payment users will reach 212.2 million in 2012, up from 160.5 million in 2011.Gartner also predicts. Spread over the entire planet, that isn't a huge amount of revenue for all the potential providers.


But the business is just starting.

WCS Spectrum Compromise Avoids LightSquared Issues

The joint AT&T and Sirius XM proposal regarding use of spectrum in the  2.3 GHz Wireless Communication Services (WCS) spectrum band seemingly avoids an issue LightSquared was unable to address, namelhy interference between a high-power Long Term Evolution mobile network and an adjacent low-power satellite service.


AT&T has owned its WCS spectrum since 1997, but there have been concerns about whether WCS licensees could peacefully co-exist with neighboring licensees in the Satellite Digital Audio Radio Service (SDARS) band, just as there were interference issues with LightSquared and neighboring GPS applications.


Apparently, AT&T and Sirius XM now are satisfied that a 10-MHz guard band will prevent any service-impairing interference, clearing the way for AT&T to use its spectrum. Only an engineer could tell you why the WCS interference issues could be resolved by instituting a 10-MHz guard band, where LightSquared could not do the same.


One suspects that the difference is transmitted power levels required for the higher-frequency LightSquared LTE signals. Since higher-frequency signals do not propagate as well as lower-frequency signals, the proposed LightSquared network presumably required higher power levels, and therefore, more interference risk, compared to power levels for the WCS signals. 

What Causes Mobile Shoppers to Abandon Airline Ticket Purchases?

What causes customers to leave before buying? It's a question every online retailer should, and often does, ask. Here's a study by WorldPay about mobile commerce in the airline industry, lots of stats about user behavior in different countries, and detail on "shopping cart abandonment." 

Grim Stats for RIM, Nokia

The last year has been decidedly bad for Research in Motion and Nokia. In the first quarter of 2011, Android had 36 percent share. In the first quarter of 2012, Android had 59 percent share. 


In the first quarter of 2011, Apple's iOS had 18 percent share. By the first quarter of 2012, iOS had 23 percent share. Nokia dropped from 26 percent to seven percent. RIM dropped from 14 percent to six percent. 

Consumer Spending on Mobile Internet Access Will Approach Fixed Access by about 2016

Global end user spending on mobile Internet access spending will almost reach fixed network levels of spending by 2016, PwC now projects.


Spending on mobile access increased from 26 percent of total global Internet access spending in 2007 to 40 percent in 2011, and will account for 46 percent in 2016. Another way of looking at those figures is that mobile access revenue earned by service providers will be about half of all global revenue in that category. 

Global end user spending on fixed network and mobile Internet access will increase to $493.4 billion in 2016, a 9.3 percent compound annual growth rate. 


Mobile broadband subscribership soared in 2011 and mobile access spending jumped 30.5 percent, says PwC. 

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Is Netflix Competing with HBO?

Does Netflix compete more with video on demand services,  "premium" video channels such as HBO or online video?  A new study from Parks Associates suggests Netflix competes rather directly with both premium channels and video on demand services. 


You might also argue that Netflix does compete with other "for fee" online services, but probably not with "no incremental charge" online video.
“Consumers can pay for a month of Netflix for about the same amount as for two pay-TV VOD movies,” said Brett Sappington, Parks Associates research director.

“Parks Associates research shows consumers know the quality of the OTT service is not comparable to pay-TV quality, but the cost-benefit comparison is enough to affect their purchase decisions,” Sappington says.

Parks Associates found 16 percent of U.S. broadband consumers, when watching movies on VOD, consider instead using an online subscription service as an alternative. Similarly, 17 percent of those watching TV programs on a premium channel like HBO consider using Netflix instead.

"Netflix is competitive against VOD and premium channels because it has a decisive edge in cost,” said John Barrett, Parks Associates director. “But there are times when the consumer will sacrifice quality for other considerations.”


The point, you might argue, is that Netflix already competes, in some cases, with both premium channels and video on demand. 

200 Million Voice Lines Will Disappear Next 5 Years

Infonetics Research expects more than 200 million traditional voice access lines to get dropped over the next the 5 years as people continue to "cut the cord" and switch to mobile alternatives. 


Total mobile subscribers are forecast by Infonetics to pass the six-billion mark in 2012, and to approach seven billion by 2016.

Surface by Microsoft features Integrated Keyboard

Some activities call for a keyboard. Surface comes with an integrated kickstand and a 3mm thin, pressure sensitive cover that doubles as a fully functioning keyboard and trackpad. 


The "Touch Cover" connects to the Surface with a single magnetic click. That's interesting. 


Many users, who have to do significant content creation, not just content consumption, have required PCs, up to this point. 


That is a potentially key differentiator in the tablet space. Of course, some of us, for the moment, still wonder about whether a mouse actually is needed to complete the navigation experience, when in "content creation" mode. 


Still very interesting. 

IDC Increases Media Tablet Forecast

International Data Corporation (IDC) has increased its forecast for the worldwide tablet sales to 107.4 million units for the year, up from its previous forecast of 106.1 million units. 


In the latest forecast update of the Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker, IDC also revised upward its 2013 forecast number from 137.4 million units to 142.8 million units. And by 2016 worldwide shipments should reach 222.1 million units, IDC says. 

Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OSHistorical and Forecast* 2010 - 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts

Microsoft May Be Closing Developer Gap

Over the last couple of years, there has been an all-out war among Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and others to win the hearts and minds of developers. 


It appears that Microsoft Microsoft is now closing the gap, at least in terms of developers increasing attention to the Microsoft platform.

By 2015, :PSTN Voice Might be Only 10% of Total Lines

Axvoice has gathered up some nice overall statistics on the state of the telecom industry. No surprise: VoIP and mobile services are growing, landline voice is declining. By 2015, legacy voice lines using TDM might represent only about 10 percent of all voice lines in service. 


That is going to put huge pressure on incumbents who have to support those lines, and will lead to more pressure to decommission the entire public switched network, as the fixed costs of supporting that particular service will be hugely expensive, compared to either fixed network VoIP or mobile voice. 

Mobile Broadband Subscribers Grew 50% in 2011

“The number of mobile broadband subscribers jumped nearly 50 percent in 2011 to 846 million and we expect that number to reach 2.6 billion by 2016, driven by Brazil, Russia, India, China and others in the developing world,” says  Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics. 


“We anticipate Asia Pacific to account for over half of the world’s mobile broadband subscribers by 2016, while Latin America will see the fastest growth,” he says.