Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Turning Off Whole Networks is Becoming More Common

Though telecom service providers globally have yet to begin turning off the old public switched telephone network, one day they will have to do so, the time division multiplex network having been largely replaced by newer IP-based networks.

In the meantime, the cost of operating legacy and IP networks continues to grow, as fewer customers remain to pay the costs of maintaining the TDM network. At some point, it simply becomes uneconomical to continue doing so.

Mobile operators know quite a lot about such transitions, but so do TV broadcasters, each industry having done so at least once.

Mobile operators in Singapore will shut off 2G services in April 2017, freeing up more spectrum for 3G and 4G services.

There are about a quarter million 2G subscribers remaining in the Singapore market, down from about two million in 2011, or about three percent of all mobile subscribers. The 2G network was launched in 2004, so it will have had a lifespan of about 10 years.

The 2G shutdown would not be the first time a mobile network has been closed, as the analog networks globally also had been shut down previously,

The U.S. analog networks likewise were shut off in 2008, for example. The point is that mobile network operators, unlike fixed network operators, have experience with shuttering an older mobile network, completely.

Regulator IDA Singapore has approved a plan from the operators to shutter their 2G networks on April 1, 2017,  allowing 2G subscribers to continue with their existing plans at no extra cost after migrating to 3G, and being provided with low-cost 3G phones.

Australian carrier Telstra has announced plans to shut its 2G network by the end of 2016. AT&T will do so on Jan. 1, 2017.

Telenor plans to turn off its 3G network in 2020, and its GSM network in 2025,

Companies around the world also now have experience shutting off broadcast TV networks. Norway plans to turn off its FM radio networks in 2017, as well.

LTE Will Grow 35% Annnually

Global Long Term Evolution subscribers will grow 35 percent annually over the next five years, increasing the installed base of customers from 516 million to 2.3 billion,  TeleGeography forecasts. forecasts.

Still, 2G remains the dominant mobile platform in 2015, accounting for 61 percent of global mobile subscribers.

In fact, 90 percent of India’s 950 million subscribers are still connected to 2G networks.

Global 3G subscribers are expected to surpass 2G subscribers in 2019.

“LTE is growing at a faster rate than 3G ever did,” said TeleGeography analyst Mark Gibson. “However, while 3G subscribers are declining in the US and Europe, they continue to grow in all other regions—most notably in Africa where they are expected to increase 19 percent compounded annually over the next five years. Therefore, despite its rapid growth, LTE may not surpass 3G on a global basis until early into the next decade.”

Indian Mobile Providers Reliance Communications, Sistema Explore Merger

Reliance Communications (RCOM) and Russian conglomerate Sistema are in talks to merge their Indian telecom businesses, a move many would guess will occur on a wider scale as the mobile industry in India consolidates to a more sustainable number of providers.

The fragmented Indian mobile market, many would argue, must consolidate to fewer providers to create a sustainable market structure based on actual profits.

The Indian mobile market will consolidate from about 10 contestants to six in the wake of the recent spectrum auction, says Fitch Ratings, while consumer prices are likely to rise.

“We believe that telcos are likely to raise prices in response to high spectrum prices,” said Fitch Ratings. Also, “most telcos will report negative free cash flow in 2015 as they need to pay a quarter of the committed amount up front.”

The consolidation will happen because spectrum acquisitions will put pressure on balance sheets and cash flow, limiting ability to invest in networks and compete.

The consumer price hikes will occur because the operators have to pay for the spectrum. And much of the acquired spectrum was re-acquired only to support existing operations.

India's spectrum auction raised US$17.7 billion, a sum that now will have to be raised or shifted from other uses, and will prove too heavy a burden for some contestants, Fitch believes.

The biggest four mobile companies--Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications--won 82 percent of the licenses. Bharti spent about US$4.7bn. Vodafone invested US$4.2 billion.

Idea Cellular committed US$4.9 billion, while Reliance spent  US$693 million.

Bharti now has the best spectrum assets with its ownership of about 40 percent of the 900 MHz spectrum considered best for coverage, Fitch says.   

Communication markets do not seem to conform very well to market share patterns one tends to see in many other industries where market entry is less capital intensive.

Put simply, a predicted pattern would have the market leader having share and profit margins double that of number two, which in turn would have double the share and profit margin of supplier number three.

Mobile service provider markets do not conform to the pattern. That is because, many could easily argue, mass market communications tends to be an oligopoly, not a monopoly or highly contested market with few barriers to entry.

In an oligopolistic market, a reference market share structure might be something like:

Oligopoly Market Share of Sales
Number one
41%
Number two
31%
Number three
16%

U.S. mobile service provider market structure deviates from the “classic” pattern one might expect. One might note the same is true in other mobile service provider markets, such as the Russian Federation. The same divergence exists in the Indian mobile market.

One might argue that a coming wave of U.K. industry consolidation could lead to a more traditional industry structure. That also could happen in the French mobile market, which still in 2012 had an “uncharacteristic” structure.


Wi-Fi to Carry 60% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

Wi-Fi networks will carry almost 60 percent of smartphone and tablet data traffic by 2019, reaching over 115,000 petabytes by 2019, compared to under 30,000 PB in 2015, representing almost 400 percent growth, according to Juniper Research.

With the caveat that usage is not revenue, value or sessions, that 60 percent figure indicates the amount of traffic a network operator might expect is carried on a Wi-Fi network rather than the core mobile network.

A few contestants--especially cable TV operators--might value more than others. as they have extensive backhaul networks that can be used to create dense residential public hotspot networks.

According to Wi-Fi service provider iPass, there were nearly 40 million community hotspots in 2014 and expects this to more than double this year to nearly 90 million.

Global mobile data traffic generated from devices including smartphones, feature phones and tablets forecast to exceed 197,000PB in 2019.

North America and West Europe will together account for over 50 percent of the global mobile data being offloaded in 2019, Juniper Research estimates.

Developing markets such as the Indian Subcontinent are forecast to witness higher growth rates and increased market share of the total mobile data traffic over the next five years. In fact, mobile operators in India already are seeing close to 100 percent year over year growth in data consumption.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Latency Will be a Big issue for LTE Satellite Backhaul

Geostationary satellites, long used for 2G mobile backhaul, are going to have a tougher time supporting Long Term Evolution networks, for the simple reason that LTE latency performance is so much more stringent than 2G, notes David Burr, O3b VP.


LeoSat, Thalesn Aenia Space Move to Next Stage of LEO Constellation System Design

LeoSat and Thales Alenia Space say they continue to study the architecture and performance of the LeoSat proposed low Earth orbit  satellite constellation, which will provide high-speed, low-latency, cost-effective broadband services worldwide, ranging from 50 Mbps on the low end to 1.2 Gbps on the high end, per end user device.

This study phase, started nine months ago, has already resulted in a preliminary system design for the LeoSat constellation.  

In the coming months, LeoSat and Thales Alenia Space will assess architecture and performance of the overall system, including both the ground and space segments.

The LeoSat constellation is initially planned to include 80 to 120 high-powered, Ka-band satellites in low earth orbit, providing worldwide coverage specifically for large private corporations and government agencies.

The system will be designed to provide point-to-point data connections to and from anywhere on Earth without the need for any interstitial terrestrial landings or transport. In other words, signals will be carried satellite to satellite.

The data will be able to travel in its native format, encrypted and secured from end to end.

The satellites will fly in polar orbits at an altitude of approximately 1,400 kilometers, Each satellite will be fitted with a dozen steerable spot beams, providing an aggregate throughout of greater than 10 Gbps.

India Mobile Internet Subs Grew Faster than 2% Between February and March 2015

India’s telecom service providers grew mobile data subscribers at a better than two percent a month rate between February and March of 2015, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

Service provider revenue also grew 9.5 percent between December 2014 and December 2014, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

Revenue grew from Rs 583.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2013 to Rs 639.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2014.

Subscribers grew by six percent to 970.97 million over the same period.

Mobile subscribers increased by 6.5 percent to reach 943.97 million subscribers at the end of 2014.

There were  267.39 million Internet access customers at the end of December 2014, including 18.86 million fixed network  subscribers and 248.53 million mobile subscribers.

O3b Annouinces New Contracts

O3b Networks announced a number of new contracts, among them a deal to supply trunking services to Miami-based Emerging Markets Communications® LLC (EMC). EMC will provide O3b high throughput, low latency connectivity to its client, a Tier 1 global telecommunications company. This will enable a first-of-its-kind solution for the Oil & Gas (O&G) industry via a Carrier Ethernet EVPL circuit, allowing direct connectivity into a major Oil & Gas firm’s corporate network.
EMC is a premier provider of hybrid global satellite and terrestrial communications. Utilizing a high quality, fully managed network, very active in the maritime, O&G, Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) and Telecommunications (trunk and backhaul) verticals, EMC offers teleport services, private, end-to-end satellite and terrestrial networks in more than 140 countries.

American Samoa Telecommunications Authority (ASTCA) has deployed an O3b trunk representing a commitment for 1.2Gbps, more than doubling its backhaul and Internet capacity for the entire Samoan archipelago.

At least in part, American Samoa Telecommunications Authority wanted a backup for its submarine fiber system.  

Prior to adding the O3b link, American Samoa and the Independent State of Samoa were served only by the aging American Samoa Hawaii (ASH) submarine cable.
Low latencies are required for many critical manufacturing, financial, and business applications, and ASTCA can now deliver flexible low latency capacity, with redundant reliability, anywhere in American Samoa.

O3b also is providing additional trunking services to Digicel PNG in Papua New Guinea, the Digicel Group’s largest market.

To support additional  demand for internet bandwidth in Port Moresby, the capital city of PNG, O3b Networks has two high throughput, low latency beams from its medium earth orbit satellites.
Digicel first supplied O3bTrunk services in July 2014,  and increased the capacity in February 2015, and only three months later increased the capacity again, nearly a 150 percent increase in data throughput from the initial start of service.

O3b also got a multi-year agreement to provide additional trunking services to the Palau National Communications Corporation, supporting the PalauCel 3G service.

AirBus Wins Contract to Build 900 Satellites for OneWeb

Airbus Defence and Space has been selected to supply OneWeb with 900 150-kilogram satellites, with the first deliveries in time for 2018 launch of the new fleet of satellites to support Internet access. .

The company said the first 10 satellites would be built at Airbus’s Toulouse, France, facility, with the rest of the constellation built at a factory in the United States.

Presumably, the 900 satellites represents a full orbiting constellation of 700 satellites in low earth orbit and 200 spares.

Kacific Aims to Disrupt Traditional Satellite Valur-Price Relationships

Satellite entrepreneurs such as Kacific now are aiming to disrupt the traditional value-price relationship for satellite communications, using new technology as much as two orders of magnitude better than prior platforms.


In the past, price points of older satellite bandwidth caused decision makers in island countries of the Pacific and Southeast Asia to rule out satellite as an economically viable way to enable connectivity in their country, focusing on cable to power fixed and mobile internet networks, notes Cyril Annarella, Kacific executive director.


But new high-throughput satellites are changing the economics of the access business because they “allow data connections at a much lower cost per bit than older generations satellites,” says Cyril Annarella, Kacific executive director, who will be speaking at the upcoming Spectrum Futures conference Sept. 10-11, 2015 in Singapore.


High throughput satellites provide as much as two orders of magnitude more throughput than earlier generation satellites, significantly reducing cost per bit profiles.


ViaSat-1 and EchoStar XVII (Jupiter-1) provide more than 100 Gbps of capacity, which is more than 100 times the capacity offered by a conventional Ku-band satellite, for example.


When it was launched in October 2011 ViaSat-1 had more capacity (140 Gbps) than all other commercial communications satellites over North America combined, to illustrate the capacity advances.


Kacific is building on several technology advances, in additon to availability of HTS. The Ka-band spectrum inherently “carries more information,” says Annarella, much as millimeter wave frequencies or even 2.5 GHz frequencies can carry more information than signals of equivalent bandwidth at 800 MHz.


Also, the success of HTS-based services in the United States,  such as Viasat and Hughes networks Jupiter, has driven the cost of user terminals well below US$500, enabling an interesting mass market value proposition that older generations of satellite services were never able to achieve, Annarella says.


In many markets, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and the Island nations of the Pacific, satellite might be the only affordable way to bridge the digital divide, Annarella argues.


Kacific believes there is a mass market for Internet broadband if the price to bring internet at the point-of-consumption can be brought sufficiently low. In most of its target markets, the existing choice  is mobile access at speeds no faster than 2 Mbps.


Kacific plans to provide more than that, especially using anchor sites at government buildings or schools as community access points.


In its target countries, Kacific is “currently the only possible proposition that completely addresses the requirements of universal access plans defined by the regulators,” says Annarella.


Kacific was founded mid-2013 by a group of experienced entrepreneurs with space, finance and IT background, he says.  


The first phase of the project logically involved convincing potential customers of service viability and affordability, defining technical specifications and raising capital.


“This phase is now closing, and the second step of the project, finishing late 2017, will see the construction and launch of Kacific first satellite K1a, for a commercial service opening in the first quarter of  2018.


Kacific says it is a business-to-business bandwidth provider, selling to other satellite service providers such as BIGNET, telecom operators such as OurTelekom and governments including Kiribati.


In other words, Kacific will be a wholesale provider, enabling other retailers to create consumer, business or governmental services.




Although the core of its intended market are islands of the South Pacific, Kacific Broadband already has signed a contract with Indonesian satellite provider BigNet. The US$78 million long-term agreement with Kacific Broadband Satellites entails capacity covering all of Indonesia, with a particular emphasis on providing good quality, affordable Internet to rapidly developing areas in Eastern Indonesia, Kacific Broadband says.


Secondary cities and villages are the target, especially schools, government buildings, enterprises and community Internet access points.  


The deal is the seventh, and largest, signed so far by Kacific Broadband Satellites. Teletok, the local telecommunications company of Tokelau and sole service provider, is another customer.


Tokelau, composed of three small atolls situated north of Samoa, is a Polynesian territory of New Zealand with a population of 1,400.


Kacific’s target audience is a familiar market: up to 50 million communications users on remote Pacific islands typically unserved by undersea cable access. That also includes 13 million people who live on outer islands.


Also, as is the case for many countries of the Caribbean, there are huge spikes in demand caused by tourist visitors numbering about two million a year.


Also, 40 million people live in locations surrounding the Pacific Ocean, such as Eastern Indonesia, where there also is little Internet connectivity.


Demand models show that more than a million latent Internet users live in the extended Pacific islands, where there are high levels of education. Over a million latent Internet users could be added if the region was supplied with levels of connectivity equivalent to those found in developing parts of Asia, Africa or Central America.


Kacific will use the latest generation Ka-band high throughput satellites and spot beams, delivering Internet access at speeds up to 50 Mbps to any single location or user.

The business plan calls for Kacific to supply wholesale capacity, enterprise and consumer services, with the launch of the first satellite in the fourth quarter of 2016 and commercial service early in 2017, with full capacity reached in 2020.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Will LEO Constellation Window Close? How Fast?

It probably is not too unreasonable for observers to speculate about the level of aggregate demand for Internet access supplied by new low earth orbit satellite constellations.

At a high level, the issue is simply the expected speed with which Internet access provided by mobile service providers is expected to proceed. At the moment, 2G access reaches perhaps 87 percent of potential subscribers in rural parts of Asia and 79 percent of rural Africa for example.  

Basic 2G population coverage stands at over 90 percent worldwide. According to ITU estimates, global 3G population coverage stood at around 50 percent in 2012.

In many areas, 3G and 4G infrastructure must be added, of course. So it is a race to gain share.

Mobile broadband registered continuous double-digit growth rates in 2014 and an estimated global penetration of 32 percent. And mobile broadband is growing fastest in developing countries, where growth rates in 2014 were twice as high as in developed countries (26 percent growth in developing countries, compared to 11.5 percent growth in developed markets).

All regions continue to show double-digit growth rates, but Africa stands out with a growth rate of over 40 percent, twice as high as the global average growth rate.

By the end of 2014, mobile broadband penetration in Africa had reached 20 percent, up from less than two percent in 2010.

If mobile service providers are rational, and they are, they will expedite their efforts to lock down customers before the LEO constellations can be made fully operational.

The corollary is that the market opportunity targeted by the LEO constellations might be considerably smaller in several years than it appears today.

If so, there might not be room for multiple large LEO constellations, in which case mergers will make sense.

In much of Asia, as in some other regions, the smartphone is the gateway to use of the Internet. In India, for example, about 57 percent of the time, the smartphone is the access device of choice.

Even in China, where access using smartphones and PCs or tablets is fairly closely divided, about 45 percent of the time the smartphone is the device of choice, where about 39 percent of the time people use a smartphone or a PC or tablet about the same amount.

In the Philippines, about 39 percent of the time, the smartphone is the preferred or more-used access device. In about 22 percent of instances, smartphones are used about as much as PCs and tablets. In about 21 percent of instances, PCs or tablets are the more-used access device.

Future Networks Will Have to Be Optimized for IP Video Content Delivery

IP video will account for 80 percent of all IP traffic by 2019, up from 67 percent in 2014, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index. With the caveat that IP traffic is not 100 percent of data traffic, the fact remains that IP networks will, by virtue of traffic volume, become content access networks.

That is not to deny the importance of communications functions, or the value of those functions. Still, to the extent that every network is optimized for the types of traffic each network must carry, it increasingly is going to make sense to architect IP networks as content access networks.

Precisely what form that will take is not yet decided. Already, though, cloud computing increasingly underpins network architectures, since the content increasingly is housed at a relatively small number of global data center sites.

Some already argue that storage will have to shift to the edges of the network, to a large extent. And there might eventually be much greater reliance on techniques similar to that used by BitTorrent, namely peer-to-peer distribution of content.

Smartphone is Asia's Internet Gateway

In much of Asia, as in some other regions, the smartphone is the gateway to use of the Internet. In India, for example, about 57 percent of the time, the smartphone is the access device of choice.

Even in China, where access using smartphones and PCs or tablets is fairly closely divided, about 45 percent of the time the smartphone is the device of choice, where about 39 percent of the time people use a smartphone or a PC or tablet about the same amount.

In the Philippines, about 39 percent of the time, the smartphone is the preferred or more-used access device. In about 22 percent of instances, smartphones are used about as much as PCs and tablets. In about 21 percent of instances, PCs or tablets are the more-used access device.

But there are markets, such as Japan where PCs or tablets are used 53 percent of the time to gain access to the Internet.

That greater use of PCs and tablets would seem to be a developed market phenomenon. In Australia, a PC or tablet is the most-used Internet access device about 36 percent of the time. In 26 percent of the instances, the smartphone is the more-likely access device.  

But there are divergences, even among developed markets. South Korea, one might presume, would have usage profiles similar to Japan. Not so. In Korea, where Google finds that 60 percent of the time, the mobile phone is the most frequently used Internet access device.

Also, in South Korea use of smartphones is nonlinear, by age cohort. Use of smartphones does not decline, in linear fashion, by age cohort, and is high in every age cohort but the 55 and older group, which still registers, at 47 percent usage, a high rate.

In Indonesia, as elsewhere, there is a direct and linear correlation between smartphone use and age. Some 70 percent of Indonesians under the age of 25 use a smartphone. In the age cohort 25 to 34, about 46 percent of Indonesians use smartphones.

In the 35 to 44 age cohort, some 38 percent of Indonesians use smartphones. Indonesians 45 to 54 use smartphones at a 27 percent rate. In the 55 or older group, just 13 percent use smartphones.


Indonesian Smartphone Use Directly Related to Age

In Indonesia, as elsewhere, there is a direct and linear correlation between smartphone use and age. Some 70 percent of Indonesians under the age of 25 use a smartphone. In the age cohort 25 to 34, about 46 percent of Indonesians use smartphones.

In the 35 to 44 age cohort, some 38 percent of Indonesians use smartphones. Indonesians 45 to 54 use smartphones at a 27 percent rate. In the 55 or older group, just 13 percent use smartphones.


Goldens in Golden

There's just something fun about the historical 2,000 to 3,000 mostly Golden Retrievers in one place, at one time, as they were Feb. 7,...