Telecom Training Week 18-22 September Bangkok

For the first time, PTC has joined two separate educational events to create “training week,” designed to acquaint mid-career telecom professionals with the skills they will need to advance their careers, as well as equip them with 5G/mobile and telecom business fundamentals.

To be held in Bangkok, from 18 September through 22 September, the training includes certificates of completion for two days of 5G training and three days of instruction on the fundamentals of the telecom business.

Taught by teams of international instructors with dozens to scores of years of experience each, training week offers an intensive but compact framework for understanding:

• Industry economics and key trends
• Evolution of the mobile and fixed industry segments
• Problem-solving exercises to acquaint you with C-level challenges
• How C-level executives approach their key business problems
• What 5G is and what it means for the future of the telecom business

Specifically designed to acquaint up-and-coming professionals with the perspective they will need as they move up the ranks, taught by executives who have founded and run companies, and themselves “moved up the ranks” of some of the biggest firms, globally.

What you will learn:

• The key C-level issues in telecom
• How executives identify and approach their key business problems
• How executives deal with competition
• How top execs manage internal challenges
• How the C-suite harvests legacy revenues, grows new revenue
• How product innovation happens
• How to navigate tough markets
• What is the future of networks?
• What is the future for mobile services?
• How regulators see 5G arriving
• How spectrum policies will change
• How 4G becomes 5G
• How mobile execs can “move up the stack”

...and much more.

Learn more about PTC Academy and Spectrum Futures, the two components of training week, a week of learning to equip Asia telecom professionals with what they must know to lead their businesses.

Instructors include:

REZA AREFI

Director of Spectrum Strategy

Intel Corporation

USA

DEAN BUBLEY

Founder

Disruptive Analysis

United Kingdom

ANUP CHANGAROTH

Senior Director, Business Development & Solutions (Asia Pacific)

Ciena

Singapore

WEN-CHUNG GUO

Commissioner

National Communications Commission

Taiwan

SACHIN GUPTA

Founder

New Street Capital Asia

Singapore

TAUFUIK HASAN

Commissioner

Indonesian Telecommunication Regulatory Authority

Indonesia

BOB HORTON

Director and Principal

Horton Consulting

Australia

RUMI IIZUKA

Principal Researcher

Spectrum Utilization Research Division

Foundation for MultiMedia Communications (FMMC)

Japan

SANJAY KAMAT

Managing Partner

Bell Labs Consulting

USA

ANTOINE KASSIS

Managing Partner

Kurrant

Thailand

HEIKKI KOKKINEN

CEO

Fairspectrum

Finland

WING K. LEE

CEO

YTL Communications

Malaysia

RUSSELL LUNDBERG

CTO

Bangkok Beach Telecom

Thailand

TUAN ANH NGUYEN

Deputy Head, Radio Frequency Policy & Planning Division

Authority of Radio Frequency Management

Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC)

Vietnam

MARC OLIVIER

VP Networks & Operators, Asia & Pacific

Sigfox

Singapore

ALEX ORANGE

Director, Government Affairs, Taiwan, Southeast Asia & Pacific

Qualcomm Incorporated

Hong Kong SAR China

ALLAN RASMUSSEN

Managing Director

Yozzo Co., Ltd

Thailand

DENNY SETIAWAN

Acting Deputy Director General for Spectrum Policy and Planning

Directorate General of Resources and Standard

Ministry of Communications and IT

Indonesia

JAMES SULLIVAN

Managing Director & Head, Asia ex Japan Research

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Pte Ltd

Singapore

HERU SUTADI

Executive Director & Chief of Communication

Indonesia ICT Institute

Indonesia

JENNIFER WARREN

VP, Technology Policy & Regulation

Lockheed Martin Corporation

USA

DAVE WRIGHT

Director, Regulatory Affairs & Network Standards

Ruckus Wireless

USA

Mike Alexander

Distinguished Engineer, IBM

USA

Sean Bergin

President & Co-Founder, APTelecom

Cambodia

Eric Handa

CEO, APTelecom

USA

Gary Kim

Founder, Spectrum Futures

USA

Keith Shaw

Vice President, Business Development EMEA, Equinix

Netherlands

Chris Wilson

CEO, ASEAN, TIME dotCom Berhad

Malaysia

Herbert Xiong

Director, Asia Pacific Sales, TE Subcom

People’s Republic of China

You also will learn from some of the most-noted industry analysts and commentators in the mobile and fixed industries.

AT&T Launches IoT Platform

AT&T Control Center is a new platform for internet of things applications that enables the launching,management and scaling of a connected devices business.

The platform supports:

• SIM management, provisioning, and activation
• Ongoing billing and lifecycle management
• Unparalleled network global coverage

• Rate plan flexibility
• Scalable platform, managing over two billion network events per month
• Single-portal view of your devices on the network
• Web-based user interface, APIs
• Monitor SIM behavior and other events.
• Decide what condition will trigger the rules.
• Set an action to run automatically when that condition is met

source: Business Insider

"An iPod, a Phone, An Internet Communicator"

“An iPod, a phone, an internet communicator….an iPod, a phone, an internet communicator..are you getting it?” Steve Jobs said on June 29, 2007, on the day Apple introduced the iPhone, a decade ago, today. 

 

No Surprise: Organizations Using IoT Say IoT is a Top Priority

With the caveat that the findings are a bit like noting that "users of smartphones say use of smartphones is important," the Internet of things is the number one priority for 92 percent of organization executives who already use internet of things systems.

The study, conducted for the Inmarsat Research Program, and conducted by Vanson Bourne, also found that internet of things will be accompanied by changes in related areas, including machine learning (38 percent), robotics (35 percent), and 3D printing (31 percent) as underpinning “digital transformation” efforts.

The study included a survey of  500 senior respondents from across the agritech, energy production, transportation, and mining sectors, from organisations over a 1,000 employees in size, that already use IoT in some fashion.

The key findings reveal that almost all (97 per cent) respondents are experiencing, or expect to experience, significant benefits from the deployment of IoT technologies.  Improved service delivery capabilities (47 per cent), better health and safety across the organisation (46 per cent), and greater workforce productivity (45 per cent) were identified as the top three benefits to be gained from the deployment of IoT-based solutions.

source: Inmarsat

T 

The research also highlights security concerns, a lack of skills (particularly in the deployment of IoT) and connectivity as key challenges that need to be addressed in order to maximise IoT’s potential.

Almost half (47 percent) of respondents believe that their organisation will need to rethink their approach to data security and make heavy investments to meet IoT security requirements.

Some 45 percent cite lack of skills as a particular challenge for their organisation in deploying IoT, while 29 percent agree with the statement that connectivity issues threaten to derail their IoT deployments before they have even begun.

LTE Eventually Wins IoT Connectivity Race, Wi-SUN Emerges

Generally speaking, networking platforms and protocols tend to win out, in the market, because they get scale. When there are multiple competing platforms, it often is not the “first” or “earliest” contenders, but the later alternatives with scale that take most of the share.

Those of you with long memories might recall that was the case for computer operating systems, was the case for competing 4G platforms and arguably 3G before that. In the smartphone area, the eventual winners were not “first” on the scene.

So it comes as no surprise that analysts at Maravedis believe the mobile networks using licensed spectrum eventually will represent most of the internet of things connections, globally.

In the area of specialized networks using unlicensed spectrum, Maravedis believes Wi-SUN platforms for utility networks be quite important, as well. In the early going, platforms often compete based on the perceived value of specifications. Long term, commercial scale typically decides the issue.

Source: Maravedis

Source: Maravedis

AT&T Wants to Virtualize the Access Network

AT&T will conduct a 10-Gbps XGS-PON field trial in late 2017, a key step towards . virtualizing access network within the last mile network. We tend to underplay the importance of such virtualization, as a key input into the business model.

By some estimates, operating costs represent the overwhelming portion of U.S. telecom service provider costs.

Nothing else comes close, as a driver of cost, or arguably, the overall business model, in the short term. That is true only if gross revenue remains at current levels. Any serious revenue declines would cause huge pressure for the business model.

And since the access network historically represents 80 percent of total capex or opex, anything AT&T and other service providers can take to reduce opex will be quite important for the business model.

source: Deloitte

The next-generation PON trial will aim to give consumer and business customers multi-gigabit per second (Gbps) internet speeds, with the business model being enhanced by sharing of much of the fiber investment needed to support 5G trunking infrastructure.

XGS-PON is a fixed wavelength symmetrical 10Gbps passive optic network technology. It also can coexist with the current GPON technology. It can provide 4X the existing downstream bandwidth. And it’s as cost-effective as GPON.

AT&T’s vision is to put some elements of XGS-PON in the cloud, and use open hardware and software designs. Those steps will save time needed to manage, deliver, monitor, troubleshoot and provide care services to customers.

5G is a Big, and Risky, Bet on the Future

It is easy enough to point out that we are far removed from the days when telecom was a safe, slow-growing, low-innovation industry with little competition. Telecom used to be considered a "utility" industry. It retains some elements of that heritage, but now is anything but a "guaranteed rate of return" industry.

Today, nothing is guaranteed: not revenue, not profits, not customers, not the business model, nor continued existence. So pointing out that 5G will be risky is only to note that the whole industry now is far more risky than ever before.

Big bets have to be routinely placed, and 5G is no different.

Among the potential 5G business model challenges is a mismatch between the expected value of use cases and hoped-for revenue opportunities. Put simply, the gigabit speeds 5G will enable for “enhanced mobile broadband” are not generally needed, so value will be low. But operators making investments will be looking for a financial return, so there will be pressure to price faster 5G services at higher levels than 4G. But 4G still will work for most consumer applications.

How important will 4K or 8K video, virtual reality and augmented reality really prove to be, early on? And how much more will consumers pay to get such support?

At the same time, the greatest hope for incremental revenue growth might come from enterprise apps generated by various internet of things applications, even if those take longer to develop.

At least, those are reasonable inferences from what industry executives currently believe. A survey by GSMA Intelligence found 69 percent of respondents believed enterprise apps (for IoT) would be the most-important drivers of new revenues. Just 23 percent believed consumer apps would be the most-important new revenue source produced by 5G.

In fact, three of four very-important new drivers of revenue are in the enterprise space, not the consumer space. In other words, it is easily possible to argue that 5G is the first mobile network generation of greatest value for enterprise applications, not direct consumer use cases.

source: GSMA Intelligence

Still, big risks now are simply part of the industry context. My own rule is that service providers are going to need to replace at least half of all current revenue every decade, from now on.

Whether that can be done, consistently and sustainably, only on the strength of connectivity services is an open question. Moving up the stack (getting into new lines of business in other parts of the ecosystem with higher revenue, margins and value) is imperative, not optional.

5G is a Big Gamble for an Industry That Has to Gamble Big

Among the potential 5G business model challenges is a mismatch between the expected value of use cases and hoped-for revenue opportunities. Put simply, the gigabit speeds 5G will enable for “enhanced mobile broadband” are not generally needed, so value will be low. But operators making investments will be looking for a financial return, so there will be pressure to price faster 5G services at higher levels than 4G. But 4G still will work for most consumer applications.

How important will 4K or 8K video, virtual reality and augmented reality really prove to be, early on? And how much more will consumers pay to get such support?

At the same time, the greatest hope for incremental revenue growth might come from enterprise apps generated by various internet of things applications, even if those take longer to develop.

At least, those are reasonable inferences from what industry executives currently believe. A survey by GSMA Intelligence found 69 percent of respondents believed enterprise apps (for IoT) would be the most-important drivers of new revenues. Just 23 percent believed consumer apps would be the most-important new revenue source produced by 5G.

In fact, three of four very-important new drivers of revenue are in the enterprise space, not the consumer space. In other words, it is easily possible to argue that 5G is the first mobile network generation of greatest value for enterprise applications, not direct consumer use cases.

source: GSMA Intelligence

The Internet Access Problem: Investments Not Matched by Revenue Growth

The big problem with mobile internet access or fixed network internet access is that exponential increases in supply--with investments to supply faster speeds and higher capacity--are not matched in a linear way with revenue increases that match the magnitude of investments.

In fact, some argue that most such investments now are bearing low to possibly negative financial returns. That, it is argued, is the case in the U.S. telecom market, where most service providers have negative cash flow.

Note the huge cost contribution “operating expense” represents. Nothing else comes close, as a driver of cost, or arguably, the overall business model, in the short term. That is true only if gross revenue remains at current levels. Any serious revenue declines would cause huge pressure for the business model.

source: Deloitte

EY consultants for example, argue that  “downward trends in return on invested capital (ROIC) are the result of a number of factors, from regulated price reductions to cannibalization of legacy revenues by OTTs, along with high capital intensity required to support demand for data.”

So if revenue growth is muted, what matters is how well access providers monetize invested capital. That is not going to be easy.

source: EY

With one exception, you can see that average U.S. mobile internet access speeds have grown by an order of magnitude in about seven years, close to what you would expect from a Moore’s Law rate of increase (doubling about every two years).

“Looking at the maximum download speeds, it looks like there's a 2x jump every two years or so—from 50 to 60Mbps in 2014, to 120 Mbps in 2016, and now to 200 Mbps,” PCmag says.

The results were obtained by drive tests conducted by PCmag.

source: PCmag

Average speeds, as you would expect, are lower, but still follow the “close to Moore’s Law” rate of improvement.

That is one of the surprises in the networks business. One would not expect speed or performance increases for physical networks (civil engineering projects) to improve as fast as chips. But that seems to be happening in fixed and mobile networks.

The difference is that cost is not declining as those performance increases happen, as has been the case for computing devices, for example.

source: PCmag

Harvesting in the Linear Video Business

“Harvesting revenue” is a proven business strategy for declining markets. And it might turn out that linear video will prove to be among the most-successful examples of harvesting the communications industry ever has seen.

It will not be the first such example. Service providers long have harvested voice revenue,  access line revenue, text messaging and legacy business service revenue. Over the next several years, a harvesting strategy will happen in linear video entertainment.

And, for some time, it might be possible to grow revenues on a shrinking customer base.

Research firm SNL Kagan recently predicted that the U.S. linear TV industry (consisting of cable, satellite and telco service providers will lose 10.8 million customers by 2021. Total linear TV subscribers will be around 82.3 million at that time, which will be 20 percent less than the peak.

But some analysts believe market share in linear and OTT video still will lie with today’s providers of linear video subscription services, not the pure-play over the top providers.

In some clear ways, it already is possible to argue that the era of linear video subscriptions has passed its peak, as seen in net shrinkage of accounts. Revenue growth is another matter, as, so far, aggregate revenues are still growing, on a shrinking subscriber base.

Overall annual spending on subscription video and TV services in the U.S. market will peak at $130.3B in 2019, with revenues starting to decline to $125.7B by 2022, Strategy Analytics predicts.

Annual revenue growth for emerging players will fall to 4.4 percent by 2022, which you might argue represents “success” for a product in a declining phase of its life cycle.

Still, today’s linear video leaders, such as Comcast and AT&T, still will account for more than 80 percent of total market revenues in 2022. In part, that is because average revenue per linear account is far higher ($100 a month) than for an OTT service ($10 a month).

After 2022, it is possible OTT will begin to grow share.

source: Strategy Analytics

5G Era: Opportunity and Peril

The 5G era will represent both opportunity and peril, and not all for reasons directly related to 5G itself. Industry dynamics are the reason.

• Legacy revenue sources are mature or declining
• Service providers will need to replace half of current revenue over a decade
• Huge new revenue drivers must therefore be found
• We are near the end of the “connectivity drives revenue” period
• Scale always matters, but will matter more, in the 5G era

At a high level, it is easy enough to note that the industry has changed dramatically over the last four decades.

It also is clear enough to note that--in the most mature markets--all legacy revenue sources are declining. In developing markets, those trends often are not so clear, as the mobile markets are not yet mature, or at a peak, and subscriber growth continues to fuel revenue growth. Eventually, that stops.

To put matters starkly, revenue growth has stopped, in the mature markets.  

Most believe 5G is significant because it sets the stage for developing huge new revenue sources to replace declining legacy revenues. Even there, though, there are issues.

Will the new revenue sources be large enough to offset expected losses of legacy revenue? And will connectivity revenue continue to drive the business model?

Also, moving up the stack in the 5G era will require scale. Connectivity markets often are local. App businesses almost always involve huge scale. And that will favor those contestants with the ability to leverage capital and reach to assemble large market opportunities.

In other words, not every mobile operator will be able to “move up the stack,” and will have to be content with being a connectivity provider, operating with much-lower costs, since it will be very hard to grow the revenue top line.

In recent years, mobile internet access has driven revenue growth in developed markets, and is starting to assume that role in many developing markets as well, notes James Sullivan, Asia-Pacific equity analyst at J.P. Morgan.

That is why the search is on for new sources of revenue beyond voice, text messaging, linear video entertainment and even internet access.

The search will be difficult. It is fair enough to point out that telcos once were nearly exclusively in the “apps” business, first with voice, then with text messaging and more recently with video subscriptions.

The advent of internet access was a big move in the direction of “dumb pipe.” And it is hard to argue with the thesis that it is “dumb pipe” (internet access) that underpins all further generations of “telco” revenue models, even when not the exclusive revenue source.

Internet access is precisely a means to get access to apps and services, not an “app” in its own right.

So we might soon see other inklings that “connectivity revenue” ceases to be the single largest contributor to service provider revenue, even if it remains vitally important. As difficult as the effort will be, over time, growth has to come from app layer services and value, not simple connectivity (access).

Source: JP Morgan

App and Connectivity Firms Share Local Access Investments?

Will app providers and connectivity providers ever routinely share the cost of internet access facilities? Granted, it never has happened before. But the uncertain payback from fiber access facilities could lead to new thinking.

For fixed service providers, the growing amount of stranded assets is a key issue. Mobile service providers face different issues.

Unlimited mobile internet poses a threat to investments in capacity, in large part because there is little, if any, incremental revenue to be gained when usage is nearly unlimited and prices essentially are capped.

Eventually, that lack of return could prompt previously-unthinkable partnerships, including app providers funding optical access in the same way they often help fund (and own) subsea transport networks.

Partnerships between carriers and over-the-top players to fund deep fiber therefore emerges as a possibility, argue Deloitte consultants. But it is equally possible that more application providers will simply decide to build their own access networks.

Many will argue app providers cannot afford to do so, and will point to Google Fiber as evidence. Those objections are valid, but also must account for other possibilities in the future, as huge amounts of new millimeter spectrum are made available, including huge amounts of unlicensed spectrum.

Also, more powerful radio platforms and open source network elements will help the business case for such “overbuilds” as well.

So it is that over-the-top players might choose to fund fiber deployment by owning assets or forming partnerships with carriers.

Much as they view any other investment, service providers are likely to prefer ownership of assets that provide differentiation, and be more willing to spin off, partner or lease other parts of the infrastructure that do not provide clear business advantage, much as big carriers have spun off tower networks, data centers, network operations and technology development in general.

So shared infrastructure models could emerge for last mile fiber access. That would make access fiber a form of leased real estate.

But that is not a new, or terribly unusual problem. It has been clear for some time that there are limits to the amount of revenue growth possible from all connectivity services (voice, text messaging, internet access). In the consumer space, telco growth is increasingly reliant on video entertainment services.

In the business space, it likewise will be necessary to “move up the stack,” into the applications and platforms part of the ecosystem.Easier said, than done.

Internet of things also could provider new opportunities to move up the stack. Gartner predicts that affluent households will have up to 500 connected devices by 2022.

“In such cases, carriers could increase revenue by offering integration, network security and traffic management services,” Deloitte consultants argue.

“Another potential opportunity is working with, rather than against, over the top players,” Deloitte argues, as in the case of sharing access infrastructure costs. That has happened routinely in the undersea transport space, but would be a major change for the retail access networks business.