Saturday, November 11, 2023

The Coming Age of Streaming "Super Bundles"

"Super bundles" are coming in the video streaming business.


If there is anything we can “know” about consumer preferences for buying video content, it is that convenience, price and simplicity are desirable. In either linear or “streaming” eras, consumption therefore always has involved some amount of bundling.


Content was aggregated into broadcast channels; then cable TV channels and now streaming service brands. 


What consumers never have had, in the video format, is a la carte access to individual shows. That has remained a staple for the theatrical exhibition business (movies shown at movie theaters), but the video business always has involved bundling. 


And that means the next era of streaming evolution will involve the creation of “bigger” or “broader” bundles that essentially replicate the value of the older linear format: pay one price, get lots of content, at one place. 


Whether the packing is “channels” or “streaming services,” some form of bundling always is required, as the cost of distribution of single shows or episodes is too difficult a business model, either for suppliers or consumers. Simply, the cost of selling or buying a single episode is too high, at the volumes most consumers will prefer. 


Cost element

Description

Content acquisition

The cost of acquiring the rights to distribute the content. This can be a significant cost, especially for popular content.

Content preparation

The cost of preparing the content for distribution. This includes tasks such as encoding, transcoding, and packaging.

Content delivery

The cost of delivering the content to consumers. This includes the cost of bandwidth, content delivery networks (CDNs), and other infrastructure.

Payment processing

The cost of processing payments from consumers. This includes the cost of credit card fees, fraud prevention, and other services.

Marketing and promotion

The cost of marketing and promoting the content. This can be a significant cost, especially for new or niche content.

Customer support

The cost of providing customer support to consumers. This includes the cost of staffing call centers, providing online support, and handling customer inquiries.


In addition, there are indirect costs:


  • The cost of maintaining and updating the underlying technology infrastructure.

  • The cost of managing and protecting intellectual property rights.

  • The cost of complying with regulations.

  • The cost of managing and resolving disputes with content creators and distributors.


Of course, on-demand distribution costs can be quite different depending on the delivery platform: retail stores renting DVDs or CDs; retail delivery by mail or internet delivery. 


Delivery Method

Direct Costs

Sample Cost (Per Episode or Movie)

Rental in Retail Stores

Manufacturing and duplication of discs, physical distribution to stores, store overhead, inventory management, disc replacement

$2.00 - $5.00

Postal Delivery

Disc manufacturing and duplication, postage costs, packaging materials, return postage or prepaid return envelopes

$3.00 - $6.00

On-demand Delivery (Per Episode)

Content acquisition, content preparation, content delivery infrastructure, payment processing, customer support

$0.50 - $1.50

Streaming Service

Content acquisition, content preparation, content delivery infrastructure, payment processing, customer support, marketing and promotion

$0.20 - $0.50


As a rule, bundled delivery using internet mechanisms offers the lowest overall delivery costs, compared to physical media. 


The point is that full a la carte access to individual titles is  impractical for many reasons. No single firm can afford to amass the full available catalog of created video content. Given the typical amount of video content people watch, 


By age group, people watch somewhere between three hours and 4.5 hours of content daily. 


18-24: 4 hours, 37 minutes

25-34: 3 hours, 54 minutes

35-44: 3 hours, 47 minutes

45-54: 3 hours, 31 minutes

55-64: 3 hours, 10 minutes

65+: 2 hours, 50 minutes


Assume the “typical” item is a 20-minute episode. That implies delivery of between nine and 14 episodes daily. Using a full on-demand model, that implies a cost of at least $3 to $9 daily, or about $90 to $270 per month. 


If you think about the pricing of streaming and on-demand services, it seems clear that consumers will not willingly pay such amounts for full a la carte access, even if it were possible. 


At the moment, declining take rates for linear video suggest that format is not preferred, even at typical costs of between $80 and $100 a month. The ultimate amount of spending for streaming alternatives is still developing, but many households already buy multiple subscriptions. 


The average U.S. household subscribes to 4.2 streaming services, up from 3.4 subscriptions in 2022, according to a 2023 survey by Leichtman Research Group. The survey also found that the average household spends $67 per month on streaming services, up from $55 in 2022.


Obviously, in an a la carte environment (were it possible), consumers would pay more than they presently do to watch video content delivered using the internet, the most-affordable platform. 


All of which explains why full a la carte buying (anything you want, when you want it) never happens. 


Instead, the business terrain centers on amalgamating enough content, at a low-enough monthly price, to satisfy enough customers so the business can survive. So far, most streaming services offering on-demand viewing have prices ranging from $5 to to $15 a month.


Streaming Service

Monthly Price (USD)

Netflix

9.99-19.99

Prime Video

8.99

Apple TV+

4.99

Hulu

7.99-14.99

HBO Max

14.99

Disney+

7.99

Paramount+

4.99-9.99

Peacock

4.99-9.99


Such prices do not seem sustainable, at such levels, financial reports suggest, as only Netflix actually seems to earn profits. 


The full issue is that the older linear TV model also is shrinking at a time when streaming investments are being made, so it actually is a combination of lower revenue and higher costs that are the problem for streaming providers. 


In other words, content producers are losing scale in a business where scale matters. Note especially the loss of advertising revenue for streaming models, compared to linear models. 


Element

Video streaming (%)

Linear video (%)

Revenue



Subscription fees

50-60

10-20

Advertising

20-30

70-80

TVOD (episode sales)

5-10

0

PPV (live event sales)

0-5

0

Merchandising

0-5

0

Cost



Content licensing

30-40

40-50

Production

10-20

0-10

Marketing

10-20

10-20

Technology

10-20

10-20


The point is that cost, convenience and simplicity have always driven the video business towards bundling, and that is unlikely to change in the streaming era of video delivery. 


To prosper, streaming services will have to gain greater scale, and that also means fewer but larger suppliers. It likely also means a reconstitution of the older cable TV bundled model of one flat price for lots of content. 


At first rather informally, then likely later formally, bundles of popular streaming services--”super bundles”--will be offered to consumers, where paying one price gives access to a few or several top services. 


In the early days, this will take the form of a “super bundler” aggregating two or more services into a package, often with other services such as mobile or internet access (home broadband) service. 


It’s coming. Consumer demand and supplier necessity will drive it. 


Friday, November 10, 2023

AI Sustainable Advantage?

 One obvious observation always applies for applied IT: when every company has access to the same technology, the long-term competitive advantage is dulled or eliminated. That is not to say that hundreds of billions of dollars worth of  investment in AI will prove useless. 

It is to say that AI will become “table stakes.” Every firm will use it. And so sustainable competitive advantage based on AI and large language models will prove elusive. 


But what remains to be seen is whether one or a few firms will somehow gain such a first-mover lead for a variety of reasons not restricted to technology (network effects, especially) that important medium-term advantages can be sustained. . 


Think of Netflix in video streaming, Amazon in e-commerce, Microsoft in enterprise applications, Apple in phones, Meta in social apps or Google  in search. At least in the medium term, each of those firms has built advantages over competitors, though arguably not entirely because of technology deployment. 


Firm

Market

Network effects

How network effects have helped the firm gain market leadership

Google

Search

The more people use Google Search, the more data Google has to improve its search results. This attracts more users to Google Search, creating a virtuous cycle.

Google is the market leader in search, with over 90% of the global market share.

Meta

Social media

The more people use Meta's social media platforms, the more valuable they become to users. This is because users can connect with more of their friends and family on Meta's platforms than on any other social media platform.

Meta is the market leader in social media, with over 3 billion active users.

NVIDIA

Graphics processing units (GPUs)

The more people use NVIDIA GPUs, the more developers build applications for NVIDIA GPUs. This attracts more users to NVIDIA GPUs, creating a virtuous cycle.

NVIDIA is the market leader in GPUs, with over 80% of the global market share.

Apple

Smartphones

The more people use Apple smartphones, the more valuable they become to users. This is because users can access a wider range of apps and services on Apple smartphones than on any other smartphone platform.

Apple is the market leader in smartphones, with over 20% of the global market share.

Microsoft

Cloud computing

The more people use Microsoft's cloud computing platforms, such as Azure, the more reliable and scalable they become. This attracts more users to Microsoft's cloud computing platforms, creating a virtuous cycle.

Microsoft is the market leader in cloud computing, with over 20% of the global market share.

Netflix

Video streaming

The more people use Netflix, the more data Netflix has to improve its content recommendations. This attracts more users to Netflix, creating a virtuous cycle.

Netflix is the market leader in video streaming, with over 220 million subscribers worldwide.

Amazon

E-commerce

The more people use Amazon to shop, the more selection and lower prices Amazon can offer its customers. This attracts more customers to Amazon, creating a virtuous cycle.

Amazon is the market leader in e-commerce, with over 30% of the global market share.


Many would argue that what mattered was network effects, not technology in a direct sense. Following that playbook, would-be AI leaders will seek to create network effects as rapidly as possible. 


That aside, most early IT adopters who do not gain network effect benefits might gain some temporary advantage over laggards, but the advantage is not sustainable, any more than “using personal computers, spreadsheets, mobile devices, software or search engines” has proven to provide sustainable advantage. 


IT tool

Benefits from using the tool

Accessibility of the tool to other companies

Sustainable advantage?

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software

Improved customer service, increased sales, and reduced costs

Yes, any company can purchase and use CRM software

No

Cloud computing platform

Scalability, flexibility, and cost savings

Yes, any company can subscribe to a cloud computing platform

No

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system

Integrated business processes, improved efficiency, and reduced costs

Yes, any company can purchase and implement an ERP system

No

Artificial intelligence (AI) software

Increased productivity, improved customer experience, and new product development

Yes, any company can purchase and use AI software

No

Cloud computing

Scalability, agility, cost savings

Can be used to quickly and easily launch new products and services, or to scale existing products and services up or down as needed.

No

Big data analytics

Insights into customer behavior, trends, and market opportunities

Can be used to develop more effective marketing campaigns, improve product development, and optimize operations.

No

Machine learning

Automated decision making, predictive analytics, and personalization

Can be used to improve customer service, reduce costs, and increase sales.

No


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