Sunday, November 9, 2025

Why YouTube TV Content Contract with Disney is So Contentious

There’s a reason YouTube TV is being stubborn about its content acquisition deals with Disney.


Content costs are fully 65 percent of total costs, significantly exceeding the similar costs incurred by cable TV firms (42 percent or less). 


Category, Streaming Provider

% of Total Cost

Content Acquisition (Programming)

Fees paid to networks and content owners

65%

Technology & Cloud Infrastructure

CDN, servers, streaming technology, bandwidth

12%

Personnel (Staff & Operations)

Engineering, support, product management

8%

Marketing & Customer Acquisition

Digital marketing, promotions, partnerships

7%

Payment Processing & Platform Fees

Credit card fees, app store fees

3%

General & Administrative

Corporate overhead, legal, facilities

3%

Operating Margin (Profit)

Net profit margin (often break-even or loss)

2%

Total

100%


For a cable TV company, content acquisition accounts for 42 percent or less of total cost, with the largest providers (Comcast, Charter Communications) likely getting volume discounts of five percent to 15 percent on content costs.


And given the declining nature of the linear TV business, costs matter quite a lot.


That noted, streaming services are taking a greater share of the remaining linear business. 

So from a content provider point of view, the streaming customers represent a growing revenue source, while traditional linear cable TV or satellite TV represents a declining revenue source. 

Channel Name

Content Owner

Category

Monthly Cost

ESPN

Disney

Sports

$9.42

TNT

Warner Bros Discovery

Entertainment

$2.39

Fox News Channel

Fox Corp

News

$2.15

FS1 (Fox Sports 1)

Fox Corp

Sports

$2.04

NFL Network

NFL

Sports

$1.51

ESPN2

Disney

Sports

$1.24

Disney Channel

Disney

Kids

$1.20

TBS

Warner Bros Discovery

Entertainment

$1.16

FX

Disney

Entertainment

$1.06

CNN

Warner Bros Discovery

News

$1.02

USA Network

NBC/Comcast

Entertainment

$0.89

Nickelodeon

Paramount

Kids

$0.79

MSNBC

NBC/Comcast

News

$0.54

ESPNU

Disney

Sports

$0.51

Discovery Channel

Warner Bros Discovery

Lifestyle

$0.46

MTV

Paramount

Entertainment

$0.45

History Channel

A&E Networks

Lifestyle

$0.43

Cartoon Network

Warner Bros Discovery

Kids

$0.41

FS2 (Fox Sports 2)

Fox Corp

Sports

$0.40

HGTV

Warner Bros Discovery

Lifestyle

$0.39

National Geographic

Disney

Lifestyle

$0.38

AMC

AMC Networks

Entertainment

$0.36

Golf Channel

NBC/Comcast

Sports

$0.35

Food Network

Warner Bros Discovery

Lifestyle

$0.35

Bravo

NBC/Comcast

Entertainment

$0.33

A&E

A&E Networks

Entertainment

$0.31

BET

Paramount

Entertainment

$0.31

Syfy

NBC/Comcast

Entertainment

$0.30

TLC

Warner Bros Discovery

Lifestyle

$0.29

Comedy Central

Paramount

Entertainment

$0.29

E!

NBC/Comcast

Entertainment

$0.27

Lifetime

A&E Networks

Entertainment

$0.26

Animal Planet

Warner Bros Discovery

Lifestyle

$0.24

VH1

Paramount

Entertainment

$0.22

truTV

Warner Bros Discovery

Entertainment

$0.14

Total Estimated Monthly Cost (for all channels shown)

$32.86


And Disney represents the programmer that arguably represents the largest content acquisition costs for a linear TV subscription services provider.

Lane, Water, Power, Permitting Issues Drive AI Data Center Infrastructure Decisions

It used to be the case that choosing the site for a new data center was based on three things: the availability of sufficient and affordable power, land and access to good optical fiber connections


The need for land has not changed. But in the present era of high-performance computing, data center requirements arguably center on access to power, water (needed to cool the dense arrays of processors) and the relative ease or difficulty of gaining needed permission to proceed (permits, regulatory issues. ). 


Goldman Sachs Research estimates that in 2027 a rack of artificial intelligence servers will require 500 kW of power, about 50 times more than a 2022 data center rack, which required between 5 kW and 15 kW of power. 


source: Goldman Sachs


 

source: Goldman Sachs


Goldman Sachs Research further estimates that 40 percent of the increase in power demand from data centers will be met by renewables, including renewable natural gas. The bulk of the remaining 60 percent is expected to be driven by natural gas


In 2024, natural gas supplied over 40 percent of the electricity for U.S. data centers. Towards 2030, the natural gas role is expected to increase, with major projects in development, such as Amazon's 754 MW natural gas plant in Mississippi and a 4.5-gigawatt campus in Pennsylvania. 


To be sure, alternatives including small nuclear reactors are under development. But natural gas advantages are many, at least for U.S. data centers. The United States is the world’s largest producer of natural gas and has an extensive pipeline network. It’s an energy source that can be switched on and off easily to match demand and does not fluctuate in supply as do wind and solar energy sources. 


Data center operators are looking at both on-grid and off-the-grid alternatives, including renewable natural gas and local generation


.  

source: Orennia


And use of renewable natural gas, in combination with other renewable sources (wind, solar, batteries) improves the economics of using renewable energy. 


source: Orennia


In July 2023 the Environmental Protection Agency noted there were 532 U.S. landfill-based renewable natural gas operations.  


While natural gas has the lead in the United States today, the gains by renewable generation, as well as the expansion of nuclear generation using small modular reactors, are expected to cut into gas consumption.


Renewables are now projected to add 110 TWh to the domestic data center electricity supply between 2024 and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency


Land, power and water remain the key physical requirements for new AI-focused data centers. Of these inputs, power and water see heightened importance.


Saturday, November 8, 2025

Blue Pill, Red Pill or No Pill?

The character Morpheus in the movie The Matrix offers the character Neo a choice between a blue pill and a red pill. Take the blue pill and you stay in the artificial world you believe exists. Take the red pill and you see reality.

Likewise, “one pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you small,” sang Jefferson Airplane lead singer Grace Slick. 


Both are examples of the "there's a pill for that" therapeutic culture in the United States, a societal preference for quick, convenient, and often pharmaceutical solutions to a wide range of physical and emotional discontents.

At the same time, there is a growing counter-movement that embraces "self-improvement" through lifestyle changes, alternative therapies, and holistic wellness practices. 

To be sure, some people have health conditions unrelated to personal choices. High cholesterol levels are largely genetic for at least one out of 250 persons, one study suggests, although 10 percent of adults have high cholesterol levels. 

The percentage of U.S. adults on GLP-1 drugs such as  Ozempic. Wegovy. Mounjaro and Zepbound, for example, could reach nine percent to 16 percent by about 2030, according to some estimates


Some studies indicate that more than half of U.S. adults could be eligible, assuming they face risks from diabetes, obesity, or cardiovascular disease. Without question, consumer demand is fairly high. 


One study suggests 12 percent of U.S. adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. 


It isn't as easy or as quick, but for many, the choice is not blue pill or red pill or any pill, but the lifestyle changes (not especially easy or necessarily always convenient) that obviate the need for taking a pill.



Thursday, November 6, 2025

Agentic AI Will Cause Additional Disintermediation in Value Chains

Agentic artificial intelligence, which as software agents acting on behalf of human users, will threaten some participants in existing value chains, in the same way that internet platforms and apps disrupted commerce and content value chains


Disintermediation” is the removal or reduction of intermediaries in any value chain. Disintermediation allows buyers, producers, and consumers to bypass traditional middlemen such as brokers, consultants, customer service agents or logistics coordinators


Consider any procurement operation


AI agents can gather and compare data across sources in real time, reducing reliance on human experts or intermediaries for information gathering or product curation. That might threaten some parts of Amazon and other e-commerce platforms, for example. 


As was the case with internet retailing, this is going to create new pressures for “price-based” comparisons and some potential diminution of “brand value.” 


AI agents then will negotiate price, delivery, and quality parameters autonomously, replicating the human “buy this” operation, and also circumventing many of the marketing practices that assume a human is persuadable during the buying process. 


As was the case for internet retailing, agentic AI should create more direct producer–consumer ability to transact directly, without distributors.


Process orchestration also should happen, where the AI unifies and handles procurement, contracting and payment operations that previously might have required multiple apps or systems. In a growing number of cases, this will involve the buyer’s agent negotiating with the seller’s agent, without distributors, advisors, consultants or specialists in between them. 


And where internet commerce featured lots of “personalization,” so agentic AI will replace “trusted advisor” or “expert advice supplier” functions and suppliers of those values. “Personalization” and “AI customization” will be analogous outcomes. 


Industry / Value Chain Stage

Traditional Intermediary Role

How Agentic AI Enables Disintermediation


Agentic AI Scenario

Retail and E-commerce

Online marketplaces (Amazon) aggregate sellers and handle logistics

AI shopping agents directly compare sellers, place orders, and track delivery

Consumers’ personal AI negotiates bulk discounts from multiple retailers and arranges delivery without using a central platform

Financial Services

Brokers, financial advisors, loan officers

AI evaluates options, performs due diligence, and executes trades or loans

A consumer’s AI portfolio manager automatically reallocates investments across platforms using live market data

Real Estate

Real estate agents and mortgage brokers

AI agents handle property search, valuation, negotiation, and contract execution

Buyers use AI that identifies undervalued homes, negotiates price, and manages closing paperwork

Supply Chain & Procurement

Procurement agents, sourcing platforms

AI autonomously sources suppliers, evaluates risk, and executes contracts

A manufacturer’s AI identifies suppliers worldwide and directly contracts best-value inputs without human brokers

Healthcare

Primary care gatekeepers, medical schedulers, or insurers as coordination intermediaries

AI triages symptoms, recommends providers, and books care directly

AI health assistant evaluates symptoms, finds available doctors, and schedules an appointment — skipping insurer’s pre-authorization layers

Entertainment / Media Distribution

Streaming platforms, music labels

AI agents match creators directly with audiences and handle rights/licensing smart contracts

Artists’ AIs distribute content directly to audience AIs, who pay micro-royalties automatically

Travel & Hospitality

Travel agents, comparison websites

AI directly plans and books multi-leg trips, comparing prices and reliability

A traveler’s AI negotiates with airlines and hotels’ AIs to assemble the best route and price

Legal & Professional Services

Lawyers, notaries, consultants

AI creates, reviews, and files contracts autonomously

SMEs use AI to draft and file incorporation paperwork directly with government APIs

Education / Training

Universities, training marketplaces

AI tutors create personalized curricula and credentialing directly

Learners use AI tutors that build custom programs, verify mastery, and issue credentials via blockchain

Advertising & Marketing

Agencies, ad brokers

AI agents buy media and tailor campaigns autonomously

A small business’s AI negotiates ad buys with media outlet AIs in real time, eliminating agency fees


So among the “dangers” or challenges for e-tailers are new value compression issues, with the correlating danger of profit margin compression. 


The danger for e-commerce platforms is a loss of gatekeeper power as more peer-to-peer or agent-to-agent interactions develop. 


Brands might also find they face some diminution of “brand value,” just as price comparison sites will shift buyer evaluations in the direction of “lower price.”


Yes, Follow the Data. Even if it Does Not Fit Your Agenda

When people argue we need to “follow the science” that should be true in all cases, not only in cases where the data fits one’s political pr...