Will AI Propel New "Cognitive Elites?"

Though we might speculate about artificial intelligence impact on social stratification (the notion that “cognitive elites” could form), it might be more accurate to argue that cognitive abilities will still operate as a social mobility enabler into the upper middle class, much as they do now, but not so much a platform for new entrants into the “upper class” (top couple of percent of families and persons). 

Then there is the matter of “celebrity wealth,” which arguably does not confer membership in the “one-percent” ranks of the upper class, which is based on more than mere wealth. In other words, we might argue that wealth alone does not equate to full membership in the upper class. 

Such mobility across class categories will still exist, but the propelling forces might not necessarily be primarily based on cognitive abilities and AI skills. 

Driver	Estimated Importance (Variance Explained)	Key Evidence/Notes
Inherited Wealth/Status	High (40-50%)	Intergenerational transmission; 50% income inheritance; dominates top 1%.
Cognitive Skills	Medium (20-30%)	Strong for education/occupation but plateaus at elites
Post-Graduate Degrees	Medium-High (25-35%)	Gatekeeper for upper middle class
Occupation/Power	Medium (20-25%)	Tied to education; gig economy erodes middle class.
Race/Gender	High (overlaps with others, adds 10-20%)	Amplifies gaps

So claims of a "new" meritocracy driven by cognitive abilities and advanced degrees must be taken in context. Such factors are significant but often secondary to inherited privileges, particularly at the upper echelons.

That does not imply that social mobility into the upper middle class is unaffected. Indeed, cognitive abilities, as “measured” by earning of post-graduate degrees, will remain a key way people experience social mobility into the upper middle class. 

But it arguably overstates the importance of AI skills in creating a new meritocracy. We’ll keep the old one, in all likelihood. That still is important for social mobility into the upper reaches of the middle class. 

How AI Could Affect Your Investing Strategies

If you are active as an investor, you've had to spend at least some time evaluating where and how to participate in artificial intelligence: what to buy, what to avoid, and your reasons for doing so. And some of the implications are a bit startling for our thinking about computing-related hardware and software.

Generative AI might turn some computing “principles” upside down, while sustaining others. We have in recent decades seen software produce more value than hardware. In place of asset-light software, we might see value created in greater amounts by capital-intensive physical infrastructure. 

Examples might include compute “as a service” providers; power providers; fiber networks and cooling solution providers. Returns might flow to a smaller number of suppliers able to afford the huge investments in capital-intensive, long-lived physical facilities underpinning AI compute operations. 

Asset-light software might produce less value. Contrary to the recent “software eats the world” model, AI rewards scale and capital access. 

And where value has been created by asset-light, fast-moving small teams, AI should favor larger providers with enough scale to navigate markets that are highly-regulated. 

Regulatory compliance and trust barriers will tend to protect incumbents with scale. 

Likewise, we might see a shift in acquisition value. Where merger and acquisition activity recently has been about “acquiring talent,” AI might force something of a shift to “acquiring assets.”

That might include sources of proprietary data, distribution capabilities and relationships or compute infrastructure and energy resources, rather than teams of people. So the “aqui-hire” strategy might have to be revised. 

On the other hand, generative AI might support the current value of “distribution” or direct customer relationships. Much as distribution became more important once the cost of creating content dropped (social or legacy media), so, as content creation increasingly has a marginal cost of production near zero, 

audience control captures value.

Much of the impact of computerization in general, and AI in specific, has been to emphasize value creation underpinned by scarcity, on one hand, and by scale on the other hand. This sort of “high and low” or “barbell” source of value squeezes out the middle (good but not great; too much labor to fully automate, not enough brand equity to command premium pricing). 

But, in some cases, the changes will be dramatic. Where business strategy, until recently, was to “move up the stack” from lower levels to higher, the reverse could happen, in some instances. 

Value and competitive moats might be created “down the stack” in infrastructure, rather than “up the stack” in apps. “Asset ownership” might produce more value than “asset-light” business models. 

Value also might hinge, in some cases, on better applied judgment (figuring out the better models, sources of value and sources of scarcity (data, distribution, regulatory barriers). In at least some cases, that might mean a revenue model based on outcomes or performance. 

Industry	Value Chain Role	Judgment Being Scaled	Why It Wins	Likely Monetization
Professional services (legal, accounting, consulting)	Senior advisory / opinion layer	Risk tradeoffs, precedent weighting, strategic advice	Execution automates; clients still pay for responsibility	Outcome fees, retainers, premium advisory
Healthcare	Diagnostics , treatment planning	Pattern recognition + clinical judgment	AI assists, but liability and trust anchor value	Per-decision, subscription to clinicians
Finance / Investing	Portfolio construction, risk oversight	Capital allocation under uncertainty	Alpha = judgment, not data volume	Assets under management fees, performance fees
Insurance	Underwriting, pricing	Risk selection and exclusion	Better judgment = structural margin advantage	Loss-ratio-driven profits
Cybersecurity	Threat prioritization , response	Signal vs noise discrimination	Attack volume explodes; prioritization is scarce	Platform + premium response services
Media, content	Editorial direction / curation	What matters, what to ignore	Abundance makes selection valuable	Subscriptions, sponsorships
Education	Curriculum design, assessment	What to learn, in what order, and why	Content cheap; sequencing is hard	Tuition, cohort-based pricing
Supply chain, logistics	Network design, exception handling	Tradeoffs between cost, speed, resilience	Automation fails at edge cases	Optimization-based pricing
Enterprise IT	Architecture, systems integration	Tradeoffs across cost, security, flexibility	Complexity increases with AI	Long-term contracts
Telecom / connectivity	Network planning, traffic engineering	Capacity allocation under uncertainty	AI drives demand volatility	Regulated or contract pricing
Energy, utilities	Grid management, load balancing	Reliability vs cost vs emissions	Errors are catastrophic	Regulated returns
Marketing, growth	Strategy, budget allocation	Channel mix, attribution judgment	Content automates; spend decisions don’t	Performance-based fees
E-commerce, retail	Merchandising, pricing strategy	Demand forecasting, margin tradeoffs	SKU explosion increases complexity	Margin expansion
Manufacturing	Process optimization, quality control	Yield vs throughput tradeoffs	AI reduces waste; judgment prevents failure	Cost savings share
Real estate, infrastructure	Capital allocation , siting	Location and timing decisions	Long-lived assets amplify good judgment	Asset appreciation
Regulatory, compliance	Policy interpretation, enforcement	Ambiguity resolution	Rules expand faster than clarity	Subscription + advisory