"Nothing But Net"

Online ad spending is growing at a faster rate than broadband access, according to PMorgan Internet analyst Imran Khan. In a nutshell, the story is that Internet stocks will do well in 2008.

JPMorgan expects 34 percent earnings growth in 2008 for the Internet stocks it covers versus 8 percent earnings growth for the S&P 500.

From my perspective, the story is that online advertising is going to grow because attention is shifting that way. And advertising follows attention.

A Must-Attend Conference

If you are the sort of person who is very interested in the future of IP applications as they relate to the global telecom business, EComm, to be held in March in San Jose, is going to be a "must-attend" event. Go to the link at the bottom of this post to get the details. Check it out. Register.

Aside from the quality of the program, I am compelled to note that this is a bottoms-up, user-generated event with no corporate sponsorship. It is the community pulling itself together, with Lee Dryburgh doing the heavy lifting. We need your support, in the form of your attendance.

You won't agree with everything you hear. But you will hear from some smart people who spend their time thinking about and building the next generation of communications. Fair and balanced. Policy advocates, telcos, application developers, consultants, solution providers.

Up close and personal. Some of you know I am a huge fan of smaller, intimate meetings where people get to talk to each other a lot. This will be that kind of place. Get there.

Confirmed speakers:

Lee S Dryburgh, SS7 Networks Limited
Martin Geddes, STL
Tony Nadalin, IBM
Phil Wolff, Reef9 Media
Brough Turner, NMS Communications
Sean O Sullivan, mySay
Ken Banks, kiwanja.net
Gary Miner, MIR3, Inc.
Stanley Chia, Vodafone
Thomas Huhn, Solution Media
Michael Codini, VoiceObjects, Inc.
Shidan Gouran, Jazinga Inc.
Blaine Cook, Twitter
Evan 'Rabble' Henshaw-Plath, Yahoo! Brickhouse
Kellan Elliott-McCrea, Yahoo! Inc.
Shai Berger, FōnCloud
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Anders Carlius, TerraNet
Johannes Ernst, NetMesh
Michael Roth, British Telecom
Adrian Cockcroft, Netflix
Mark Rolston, Frog Design
Kevin Nethercott, LignUp Corporation
Ken Rehor, VoiceXML Forum
Thomas McCarthy-Howe, The Thomas Howe Company
Brian Capouch, Saint Joseph's College
Matthew S. Hamrick, Homebrew Mobile Phone Club
Stipe Tolj, Kannel Software Foundation
Rocky Nevin, DataSea, Inc.
Piotr Cofta, British Telecom
Norman Lewis, Wireless Grids Corporation
Ram Fish, Trolltech
Blaine Cook, Twitter
Sheldon Renan, Vision (+) Strategy
James Body, Truphone
Jim Van Meggelen, Core Telecom Innovations
Paul Amery, Skype
Tim Panton, Westhawk Ltd
Gabriel Sidhom, Orange-FT Group
Moshe Maeir, The Flat Planet Phone Co.
BJ Fogg, YackPack
Simonie Wilson, Open Methods
Michael Roth, British Telecom
Peter Saint-Andre, XMPP Standards Foundation
Michael Shiloh, OpenMoko
Marc A Smith, Microsoft Research Internet Services Research Center
Boaz Zilberman, Fring
Bob Frankston, Frankston Innovating
Mark Cooper, Consumer Federation of America
Kevin Nethercott, LignUp Corporation
Fabrizio Capobianco, Funambol
Koushik Chatterjee, Embarq
Sam Aparicio, Angel.com
John Waclawsky, Motorola
Michel Bauwens, P2P Foundation
Michael Codini, VoiceObjects, Inc.
Amit Desai, Dial Directions, Inc.
Dawn Nafus, Intel
Nathan Eagle, MIT Design Laboratory
Jeff Bonforte, Yahoo! Inc.

Do People Want Dual Mode, Convergence?

Dean Bubley has a nice list of things that will happen in the wireless market this year. Several caught my eye, one of them being that in our rush for all things "converged," we might be missing something, and taht is that people might be better at managing multiple devices, numbers and identities than we usually give them credit for.

Bubley argues that suppliers and service providers have a hard time creating the "one device that does everything" because, in fact, "people are happy with complexity."

"People like multiplicity," Bubley argues. "They want multiple service providers."

Some people certainly seem not to mind complexity, multiple bills or providers. Others probably prefer to buy in a sort of "best of breed" mode, despite some incremental friction.

I suspect that although lots of people say they like triple play services because it is more convenient using one provider instead of three, the adoption driver really is the discount.

The issue here probably is that many attempts to converge functions, identities and so forth involve some compromises, some effort and some limitations. People might be willing to put up with some amount of complexity or effort to get more choice.

But not much. According to the Reuters news service, half of all malfunctioning products returned to stores by consumers are in full working order, but customers can’t figure out how to operate the devices.

Product complaints and returns are often caused by poor design, but companies frequently dismiss them as “nuisance calls,” Elke den Ouden found in her thesis at the Technical University of Eindhoven in the south of the Netherlands.

The average consumer in the United States will struggle for 20 minutes to get a device working, before giving up, the study found.

Sprint Settles Patent Infringement Suit

...and it doesn't involve Vonage. A subsidiary of Acacia Research Corp. and Sprint Nextel Corp. have settled a lawsuit alleging that Sprint Nextel had infringed on four patents for technology used to display mobile vehicle information on maps. No terms were revealed.

Telecom has been a tough business for a decade. But operations seem to be getting riskier in the service provider business, for reasons that used to be an issue primarily for hardware and software suppliers.

Search Ads Will Drive U.K. Spending Growth

Internet searches will contribute around three-quarters of the growth of U.K. advertising in 2008, according to Group M, a unit of WPP Group, says the Dow Jones news wire.

U.K. advertising will grow by six percent in 2008, and all but 1.5 percent of that will come from search engine ads.

Group M also said the value of the Internet advertising market will come close to that of the television advertising market in 2008.

Newspaper advertising revenue is expected to decline by 2.8 percent in 2008, after a 3.4 percent decline in 2007, Group M forecasts.

Mobile to Lead Japan Online Ad Growth

Online advertising in the Japanese market is lower than in other markets, but growing at a faster rate.

Japan’s leading advertising agency, Dentsu Group, says search spending accounted for 27 percent of Japan’s online ad marketing in 2007, a figure significantly lower than in the United States (40 percent) and the United Kingdom (60 percent), eMarketer notes. By 2010, Dentsu predicts search will reach just 30 percent of Japanese online ad spending.

Dentsu also estimates that Japan’s mobile ad market grew by 42.5 percent in 2007. Mobile advertising is expected to remain the fastest-growing segment through 2010. Dentsu forecasts double-digit growth for the entire Japanese online ad industry to 2011, when growth is expected to slow to 9.6 percent.

54% of U.S. Cable Operators Face Telco Video Competition

Fifty-four percent of the cable systems surveyed by In-Stat say they face a telephone company that already is offering video service in their cable TV service area, In-Stat says. Oddly enough, though rural areas often are considered to be service backwaters, lagging urban and suburban areas in broadband access, for example, rural areas often are places where telcos have moved early to offer entertainment video services.

Historically, rural telcos have been licensed cable operators as well. But some telcos that aren't wired competitors rely on satellite partnerships to get the job done. And there's a scale effect here. It takes a long time for a large telco to upgrade nearly any part of its infrastructure.

Small operators, simply because they are small, can upgrade much faster. Keep in mind that rural operators often have a few hundred to several thousand customers, not millions. The same sort of process works at the level of a country. A small country can upgrade its facilities much faster than a larger country, simply because of the differences in scale.