Unlimited Plan Impact

So far, it doesn't seem that new unlimited use plans offered by all the major providers have had any particular impact on revenues. In fact, at&t executives claim that the new plan is revenue neutral. In other words, as many people are upgrading to the new plans as are downgrading from plans where they paid more.

What does seem likely is that more users will be exposed to what they can do when they have data services beyond texting. To the extent there is an ultimate change in revenue, it will be found in increased sales of data products of various types.

Verizon earlier had noted that just 305,000 of its subscribers--0.5% of its sub base--had wireless calling plans priced at more than $99.99 per month, at the time it launched its unlimited calling plan.

Those customers spent an average of $125 to $135 per month on phone calls. So even if every one of those customers dropped down to $99 a month plans, Verizon would be looking at just $7.6 million to $10.7 million in lost revenue per month.

And that would be balanced by increased revenue from customers upgrading to the new plan.

2010 for Verizon, at&t 4G Nets

Verizon says it will light its new fourth-generation network in 2010. Executives at at&t haven't been equally specific, but Kristin Rinner, at&t SVP says "we estimate it possibly will be 2010 before the whole ecosystem is in place for us to launch." Of course, time tables can slip. Neither carrier will be overly anxious to commit billions more in capital to light networks that will be lightly loaded for some time.

And they might just watch Xohm and Clearwire for clues about demand. If growth is sluggish, there will be incentive to delay. If growth is robust, they'll stay on schedule. There's still lots of work to do creating new revenue-generating applications on the 3G network.

And watching what users do on 3G networks is key. Just recently, Apple's iPhone has shown that the right device and plan can cause new behaviors to explode. And that's just on the slower Edge network. Once we start to get data on 3G use, we'll get some additional glimmers of what might be feasible for 4G.

One trend already seems clear. If carriers can get smart phones into the hands of users--by selling them at lower prices--then data plan usage goes way up. And having lots of people using data plans is about the only way we're going to figure out what things people want to do.

And since the 3G network will remain in operation, there will be a huge need to create new "data" applications that require 4G capabilities without simply cannibalizing 3G alternatives. It's sort of odd to think of 3G as a "legacy" network, but that's what it is becoming. It remains a strategic legacy network to be sure. The point is simply that 4G makes no sense unless it expands the range of new services people can use. Nobody needs another "voice and text" or "moderate speed broadband" network.

MobileTalk: Really Easy

Right now, there are a couple issues users face when using VoIP from a mobile phone. In some cases, carriers might interfere with that sort of thing. Not that they do, but they can. Verizon Wireless PC card owners know their terms of service actually prohibits VoIP and even use of the air card from a "home" location. Not that I've ever met anybody who had trouble with either of those two clauses. But the clauses and the rules exist, in case Verizon Wireless does want to enforce them.

So anything that makes VoIP easier or does not risk infringement of an ISP's terms of service is welcome. That's not to say Mobivox or Jajah, for example, are hard to use. No harder than dialing an access number, really.

But 8x8's Packet8 MobileTalk arguably is even easier.Packet8 MobileTalk uses a downloadable software application that can currently reside on any Windows, Palm or Symbian based mobile phone. The app works in the background.

Packet8 MobileTalk users can dial calls directly and natively from their mobile handset, contact list or speed dial directory with no additional keystrokes.

Once a destination number is dialed or selected, the Packet8 MobileTalk software application identifies the international prefix being called and redirects the call to a local Packet8 network access number.

That's it.

You download the MobileTalk app, then make calls as usual. When an international number is dialed, MobileTalk automatically redirects the call to a local access number, which uses the 8X8 VoIP network to complete the call.

Packet8 MobileTalk is currently available for Windows Mobile, Symbian, and BlackBerry phones, and is expected for Java phones in soon.

Sign up now and the activation fee is waived. There is no monthly recurring charge.

As this data from Sound Partners suggests, more minutes of use are going to shift to mobile VoIP, as this forecast suggests will be the case in western Europe.

Streaming Causing ISPs to Upgrade

Consumer use of streaming video over the web has more than doubled in the past year, and Internet service providers and networking companies--at least their personnel--believe lots more is coming, according to the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance poll.

Nearly two-in-three industry respondents (26 percent) think the delivery of streaming video has significantly increased the demand for networking technology and products, while 38 percent say it's caused a moderate demand increase, says Paul Carton, ChangeWave analyst.

Count Cisco and other infrastructure suppliers, as well as bandwidth barons, as winners.

at&t VoIP for Austin

U-verse IP-based voice service is being introduced in the Austin area. So those of you who wonder when incumbent service providers will get on the VoIP bandwagon have an answer. VoIP makes most sense for an incumbent provider when the basic service package includes other IP-based video services.

Even when IP isn't extended completely to all the end points, the adoption pattern will mirror the ways IP and optical fiber was introduced into the rest of the network. IP made first sense in the network core. So did fiber. Over time, fiber extended into the metro trunking plant. That same sort of thing will happen as soft switches replace older TDM switches.

VoIP features will be made available at the central office, with media gateways between the end user analog equipment and the CO. Over a period of time, the gateways will migrate deeper into the access network.

But there will not be a complete flash cut to VoIP as the voice platform until some critical mass is reached. At some point, half the customers will be buying IP-based video or data services. Sometime around then, it starts to be feasible to decommission the older networks.

But not much before then will it make lots of sense.

DirecTV, FiOS Taking Share

DirecTV and Verizon's FiOS (where it is available) are getting 58 percent of the customers as consumers in a February 2008 survey describe the choices they will make in buying new video service providers.

Keep in mind, these are customers who already have decided to make a change. And as the incumbent, a cable operator is going to be hit disproportionately by customers who want to make a change.

The survey also suggests about four percent of respondents are leaving another service provider for Comcast, for example.

Considering that DirecTV is operating as a "single play" for the most part, it is doing quite well, though some percentage of its new additions come from telephone company customers buying DirecTV as the "video" component of a virtual triple play or dual play.

Apple and RIM Lead Smart phone Sales

According to a March 2008 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, the smart phone industry is "a two-horse race between Research In Motion's BlackBerry and Apple's iPhone," say Paul Carton and Jim Woods, ChangeWave analysts.

As the incumbent, RIM continues to enjoy a commanding market share lead, with 42 percent. Apple has nine percent, but is growing faster than RIM.

If customer satisfaction is an indicator of future growth, Apple will contiunue gaining share. About 79 percent of iPhone owners report they're "very satisfied" with their phone. About 54 percent of BlackBerry users say the same.

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, 35 percent say they'll purchase an Apple iPhone, a huge jump since January 2008.

About 29 percent say they will buy a BlackBerry.