Windows Collapsing, Gartner Analysts Argue

Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald say Microsoft’s Windows product is collapsing, a victim of slow adoption by enterprises, code bloat--there's so much code it cannot be changed quickly--and a radical shift to browser-based services.

The bad news for Microsoft is that it is the browser that increasingly matters most, not the PC operating system, the Gartner analysts argue.

TechCrunch editor says Vista could be perfect and it still wouldn’t matter. "Online advertising revenue is their only real hope of long term survival," he says.

If the Gartner views seem a bit radical, it is only because major computing shifts always seem radical. There was a time when the notion that teenagers would own their own computers would have seemed more than a little far fetched.

Still, one can question the time it might take for a new paradigm to take hold. So far, most users probably don't see the utility of accessing basic business productivity suites online rather than loading them locally. But that might not wind up being the "killer" app that drives cloud computing.

And as already is the case, cloud-based services might take hold where real-time and changing information and services are required or desired or where simple mass storage and backup are important.

Ask yourself how useful a PC is, when it doesn't have access to the Internet, or broadband access to the Internet. Yes, there are things you can do. But the point is that communications now is a primary requirement for a PC. Cloud computing is just an extension of that trend.

More than 80% of Internet Users Download or Stream Video

The BBC’s video site, iPlayer, is fast becoming the place to tune in online. Since launching on Christmas Day, 17 million Internet users streamed or downloaded full-length programs—leaving rival ITV’s broadband TV offering far behind.

The same trend is occurring in the US. Surveys there show that consumers prefer to watch programming online that is produced by professional TV networks and film studios. eMarketer projects that 154 million people in the US will download or stream video content on the Internet at least once a month in 2008. This year, 80% of Internet users are expected to watch video, which accounts for 52.5% of the total population.

In fact, some U.K. Internet service providers think the iPlayer is generating so much traffic and cost for ISPs tha the BBC ought to have to pay the ISPs to carry the BBC content.

Blockbuster to Launch Download to TV Service?

Andrew Wallenstein, a reporter for the Hollywood Reporter, says Blockbuster is developing a new service streaming movies directly to TV sets. Apple TV was first to introduce a similar set-top box and

Netflix also has said it is interested in doing the same.

The Blockbuster service would be an offshoot of Movielink, the online film service Blockbuster
acquired last year.

Wallenstein says the device probably is a stand-alone product akin to Apple TV, not software and firmware incorporated into another existing device.

Blockbuster says it also will develop mechanisms to deliver movies to mobile phones. The company also is developing in-store kiosks for movie downloading.

Some speculate that online streaming or downloading services will cannibalize Blockbuster's retail store sales, and that certainly is a risk. But there is also thinking that retail will continue to grow even as online downloading and streaming services proliferate. That, at least, is what researchers at Screen Digest now forecast.

Screen Digest argues that, by 2012, about $1 billion will be generated by one of two online business models. About two thirds will be new revenue, while a third will come at the expense of DVD spending in the United States and Western Europe.

The forecast is based on retailers' ability to offer a huge range of titles without worrying about shelf space or the traditional video supply chain. Consumers could burn their purchase onto physical media or bring media players with them and download at the retail site.

Millennial Tipping Point?

Many of us have children who use devices, services, applications and networks in different ways than we, their parents, do. So the issue is when we will reach a tipping point: a time when most buyers of enterprise and consumer services are "Millennials" and "Gen Xers" rather than "Baby Boomers." It is only a matter of time.

So what bears watching are signs that the next generations of buyers have different preferences and expectations about their communication services. Today we might see the demand mostly on the "consumer" side of the business. At the tipping point we will see that demand translated into enterprise, small and medium-sized business, government and non-profit buying as well.

If users have preferences for mobile services, texting and immediacy in their lives as users, why would they not carry those preferences into the enterprise? So if one is a service provider, why wouldn't it make sense to learn from the Millennials and Gen Xers who are part of one's own company? Why wouldn't it make sense to recraft existing services and features that are more attractive to buyers with different priorities?

Fiber to Home is Necessary, Rural Telcos Told

"We are going to have fiber to the home," says John Rose, OPASTCO president. "We are going to have more symmetrical bandwidth." That might not strike you as unusual. But consider that Rose works for a trade association representing lots of small, rural telcos that know exactly how costly it will be to try to build FTTH networks in their low-density areas.

Given current broadband growth rates, there is no other option, Rose says.

Salesforce.com and Google?

Salesforce will begin reselling Google’s Web-based applications such as Google Docs to its customers, says Erick Schofneld, TechCrunch co-editor. Google's Web apps will be available within Salesforce.com and tightly integrated into its service, he says.

Google, enterprise. Salesforce.com, advertising. Does this start to make sense to you? Salesforce customers can already manage their AdWords campaigns from within Salesforce.com and Google wants to sell its apps to enterprise customers. And Salesforce.com with an integrated desktop productivity suite?

Keep in mind the uber trends: consumer technologies blending with enteprise; advertising blending with "shrink wrap" software models; Web services replacing client-server or local computing.

Go wireless to get a job; CompTIA

A survey of more than 3,500 information technology (IT) managers by CcompTIA reveals that wireless and RF mobile technology is the skill set expected to increase the most in importance over the next five years. In all but two of fourteen countries surveyed, IT managers said wireless skills will increase the most in importance over the next five years. Wireless skills ranked second in South Africa (behind security) and France (behind Web-based technologies).

Among specific industries, IT managers in healthcare (63 percent) and education (63 percent) were more likely to identify wireless technology as the skill that will be most important five years from now. IT managers in the auto/manufacturing sector (48 percent) were less likely to consider wireless important.