Mobile Internet: More Messaging than Content

Communications--in the form of social networking--might be more important than content for the developing mobile Internet use. Or at least that's what analysts at Informa suggest.

Mobile social networking is based more on communication than content, the thinking goes. Time and again, communication services have led the way for content and advertising to follow, Informa argues. In the case of the Internet, it was e-mail and discussion boards—not Web pages—that triggered the explosion from early adoption to mainstream consumer use. In the mobile arena, the first really successful data service was text messaging. Short message service services drove mobile data use and they still account for the majority of mobile data revenues by carriers.

According to February 2008 research by Informa, the global market for all current forms of paid mobile entertainment should reach $31.7

billion by 2012. That's a lower forecast than predicted in 2006, when Informa suggested paid mobile entertainment would reach $42 billion by 2011.

In the U.S. market alone, mobile data service revenues reached $23 billion in 2007, according to industry trade group CTIA. Mobile messaging for SMS/MMS/IM/e-mail worldwide is expected to be between $100 billion and $200 billion by 2011.

Email Communities: 1.3 Billion Accounts

It might be over-reaching to describe every population of application users as an actual community, but each might be considered a passive, or potential community.
And much as instant messaging platforms frequently are referred to as creating social networks, so email communities in some ways also create the foundation for social networks of extremely large size.

The leading email providers in the U.S. market, for example, can claim as much as 1.3 billion accounts.

Is Social Networking a Videogame?

Dean Takahashi of VentureBeat asks a good question: "Is Facebook a video game?" The question is of immediate importance for the video game industry. "Funware," applications with game-like mechanics and game-like behavior, just might steal the thunder from video games, which may no longer have a monopoly on either interactivity or fun, Takahashi argues.

Web-based social interaction is changing the way that many people entertain themselves. Ask anybody who has discovered that Facebook is a "time waster."

Funware includes applications such as eBay, which made it fun to earn rewards as a competitive buyer or seller on its auction site. The term may also be applied to alternate-reality games such as “ilovebees.com,” where masses of players collectively solved a mystery about an invasion of earth.

The Google Image Labeler, created by Carnegie Mellon University researcher Luis von Ahn, is built around a game where two people try to simultaneously label an image and, without being able to communicate, try to come up with the same label for the image as the other person. The game also helps Google improve the accuracy of its image searches.

Flickr traces its origins to game industry veterans Stewart Butterfield and Caterina Fake, whose team stumbled upon photo-sharing while they were trying to make a game.

One of the ominous things for the video game industry is that almost none of these Funware ideas or businesses have come from game companies, which are now failing to catch on to an expansion opportunity, says Takahashi.

Funware game mechanics include things like leader boards, tournament challenges, ratings systems, badges for accomplishments, levels, and other things that can boost user engagement. Users find these features enticing because they elevate the user’s status in the eyes of the community.

Mediacom Upgrades to 20 Mbps

Anybody who thinks high-speed Internet access is not being offered to rural customers should take note: Mediacom Communications, which serves 1,500 non-metro communities scattered throughout 23 states, is upgrading its top of the line 15 Mbps service to 20Mbps downstream, 2Mbps upstream, by the end of June 2008.

That isn't to say rural penetration is as high as it is in urban or suburban areas, or that the number of providers is greater or that speeds are higher.

It is to say that rural providers know they've got to do better, and most executives at most companies have plans to upgrade.

Analysts Knock New Clearwire

Some financial analysts don't like prospects for the new Clearwire, says Eric Savitz Barron's writer. Savitz notes that Citigroup’s Michael Rollins dropped his rating on Clearwire to "sell" from "hold," because the stock now trades at a “substantial premium” to fair value, which he puts at $13 a share, down from a previous estimate of $17.

Skype Competitor? Carrier Voice Peering?

AT&T, in conjunction with some 10-15 incumbent telecom carriers, said to include British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom and NTT among them, is plotting to launch a Skype competitor, according to ThinkEquity analyst Anton Wahlman.

It's a speculation at this point, but note that BT has discontinued its original BT Communicator and is rolling out a new soft client on May 28, which removes free calling functionality to people who are not users of the new BT soft client, using BT broadband access.

At the very least, the move suggests an attempt to tie soft client use to BT's broadband access service, which also would be a logical move for any broader consortium of carriers. Basically, it would be a big move into voice peering.

Some observers say carriers will have a hard time creating such a venture. Others say disruption, even to such a popular application as Skype, is less a hurdle than many think.

To answer the obvioius objection that carriers will not want to cannibalize their own long distance calling revenues, the requirement to buy broadband access from one of the participating peering members is the answer. Lost revenues on global long distance hopefully are balanced by increased uptake and reduced churn for carrier broadband offerings.

TalkPlus Next for Dead Company List?

Om Malik says TalkPlus is in danger of tanking. Michael Toepel, who was the CEO, recently left after the company failed to get new investment to keep it going, Malik notes.