It's All About the Content

Only three things matter where it comes to video on demand: content, content and content. No matter what anybody thinks today, if popular content is accessible on a VOD basis, and is priced and packaged in ways consumers find fair, VOD takes off.

In some ways, digital video recorders provide something of a precursor. Time shifting is a form of VOD. And there's no question but that prime time and scheduled TV are losing their impact as consumers create their own entertainment lineups.

Why is time shifting more popular than VOD? For the same reason any form of media consumption is popular: people easily can get the content they want. Today, there's a fair amount of free VOD content, such as karaoke, music videos and programs for children.

The reason time-shifted multi-channel video content gets higher viewership is that viewers think "that's the good stuff."

eMarketer estimates that VOD is available in one third of TV households today, and will reach over 60 percent of households by 2012. The issue is how much "good" content will be available that way, as well as over the top on the Internet.

ChoiceStream data from December 2007 shows there would be greater viewership of VOD if there were "more content of interest." And pay little attention to what consumers say they will do. Even if they say they aren't much interested in VOD, that's just because the available content is not what they really want.

Mobile Saturation in China

My how things have changed. In urban China, 98 percent of people already own at least one mobile phone. In urban India, 85 percent own a mobile while in urban Brazil 79 percent own a mobile.

Nortel Touts Telecommuting Benefits

Nortel says 10 percent of its employees work from home on a full-time basis while 80 percent are equipped to work from home. Employees who work from home one day a week save an estimated $500 a year on fuel costs.

And though some enterprises worry about productivity, Nortel estimates it gains a 15 percent increase in productivity among teleworkers, with 94 percent reporting 15 percent to 20 percent greater productivity

Annual real estate savings represent $9,000 for each full-time teleworker, working out to about $22 million annually in energy use and real estate spending.

34% Buy Premium Features and Services

Social networking sometimes looks like a feature rather than a full business model, with the perhaps obvious exception of the leading portals. But affiliate advertising, virtual goods, micropayments, social network site merchandising, and data mining might emerge as viable alternatives to traditional revenue models, say researchers at In-Stat.

But there's some evidence the "give the base service away free, make money on upgrades" strategy does work. In-Stat notes that 66.6 percent of respondents to a recent consumer survey do not pay for premium services or features. But that leaves about 34 percent who do buy upgraded features.

Of course, much the same sort of analysis might be made of email or blogging. There are lots of business models of an indirect nature; some of a direct nature. About 16.7 percent of survey respondents use a mobile phone to participate in online social networking or video content sites. At the very least, that means more use of mobile data and mobile Web services.

In-Stat forecasts 92.2 million social networking users in the United States by 2012.

Verizon Wireless Adds Unlimited Music Downloads

Verizon Wireless has launched a new program that will let customers download as much music as they want from Rhapsody online music service for $15 per month, to seven handsets, with three additional handsets to be added as well.

The service will compete with MP3 downloads provided by other companies such as Apple's iTunes. Verizon has a similar deal with Napster.

Rhapsody is eliminating copy protection on all tracks bought from its online music store, which will enable them to be played on a variety of devices, including iPods.

Downloads do not seem to me to be a functional substitute for satellite radio, but one has to wonder how many other users think so.

3G iPhones Cost $256 to Manufacture

You might wonder how Apple can sell 3G iPhones at a subsidized price from AT&T of $200 or so. Well, according to iSuppli analysts, the phone costs about $265 to produce.

Apple gets $300 from AT&T for each device sold. After packaging, shipping and marketing costs, Apple will have to make its money elsewhere. Applications, music and movies would appear to be the "somewhere else."

As part of the new arrangement, Apple will not be getting recurring revenues from usage plans.

The company also forecasts 4.5 million iPhones sold this year, and over 30 million by 2011.

Comcast Adds Global Calling

Comcast has struck a deal with some IP voice provider, as it is launching calling to Western Europe, Latin America and Mexico. I'd guess it is Jajah underneath the hood, given the amount of activity Jajah is pouring into relationships with telcos and cable companies, as well as the spare capacity it has built into its global backbone network. Whomever the deal is with, the move by Comcast shows that telcos and cable companies can leverage over-the-top or Web activated forms of IP voice for out-of-territory calling.